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Posted on 25/08 by T J Dilfer

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 Welcome to our AFL Round 23 betting preview.


**This week's free expert betting tips are below - these are normally available to subscribers only**

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We don’t advise bets on every game, just the games where we can find value. Which is why we often suggest handicap line and total match points bets, as well as H2H bets.

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As always, it’s important to take advantage of bookmaker promotions in order to maximize long term profits. So all bets this round are advised with Sportsbet.com.au who are running this AFL promotion:

AFL Round 16-23 Head to Head Special
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• If your team leads at any break, but goes on to lose the match, CASH BACK up to $50!
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• All phone, live and ‘Cashed out’ bets are not eligible for the offer
• Go to Sportsbet.com.au to claim this special offer


Round 23 best bets


Adelaide ($1.32) v West Coast ($3.40)

• Huge game for both teams. Adelaide aim to secure a top two spot and the Eagles have an outside chance of making the top four

• Both teams are without their best players, Nic Naitanui is out injured for the Eagles and Rory Sloane is suspended.

• Adelaide are the only team to beat West Coast in Perth this season and they did it easily. The Crows should triumph once again in a shoot-out (Adelaide are the highest scoring team in the league and the Eagles are third best)

Betting tip: Back the total match points to be over 184.5 at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake



Geelong ($1.15) v Melbourne ($5.50)

• The Demons blew their chances of finals football with a shock loss to Carlton last week and have nothing to play for in Roos’ final game as coach

• The Cats need to win to ensure at least a top four position but can finish top two if the Swans or Crows slip up

• Geelong have only lost once at Simonds Stadium this year and should be too good for the young Demons side. Back the Cats to cover the handicap line

Betting tip: Back Geelong to win on the handicap line (-32.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



Essendon ($3.35) v Carlton ($1.33)

• The two lowest scoring teams in the league. Carlton average only 70 points a game and Essendon just 63 points

• The Bombers can avoid the dreaded wooden spoon if they win and Brisbane lose – so they have plenty to play for

• A good win for the Blues last week at big odds but Carlton are way too inconsistent to consider backing at just 1.33 – end of season games are notoriously unpredictable which makes the 3.35 available for the Bombers a value bet

Betting tip: Back Essendon to win the game at odds of $3.35 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



Sydney ($1.08) v Richmond ($8.00)

• The Swans will claim the Minor Premiership with a win here at the SCG and can be backed at a miserly 1.08 in the head to head market

• Richmond have a great record against Sydney and have won the last three contests, two of which were in Sydney

• Sydney should win here but given the Tigers’ record it might be a lot closer than the 48.5 points handicap line suggests. Back Richmond with the big start

Betting tip: Back Richmond to win on the handicap line (+48.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



Gold Coast ($2.95) v Port Adelaide ($1.40)

• The Suns have put in a couple of wretched performances in recent weeks and look as though they cannot wait to get the season finished and done with

• Unpredictable Port went very close to upsetting the Crows last week and will be keen to finish the season with a win. Port have only ever lost once to the Suns

• The Power are more than capable of putting on a big score and should cover the low looking handicap line of 17.5

Betting tip: Back Port Adelaide to win on the handicap line (-17.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



North Melbourne ($2.70) v GWS Giants ($1.47)

• An intriguing contest and one which is most likely a dress rehearsal for week 1 of the finals. GWS can still snatch a top 4 place if one of Adelaide/Hawthorn/Geelong lose and the Giants win

• GWS have never beaten North Melbourne but have a great recent record at the Etihad winning five of their last seven

• With a home final and a possible top 4 finish on the line, the Giants have much more to play for here and should break their duck against North

Betting tip: Back GWS to win on the game at odds of $1.47 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake



St Kilda ($1.05) v Brisbane ($10.00)

• Odds of $1.05 are the shortest price the Saints have been to win a game, probably ever!

• Brisbane will probably claim the wooden spoon if they lose and Essendon win

• The Saints should win comfortably but this isn’t a match to get involved with from a betting point of view

Betting tip: No bet advised



Hawthorn ($1.21) v Collingwood ($4.45)

• The Hawks will miss top 4 if they lose here and GWS or West Coast or Western Bulldogs win

• The Pies have lost the last eight games against Hawthorn and are big outsiders at 4.45

• With a top four spot on the line and a formidable MCG record, the Hawks should win comfortably against an inconsistent Collingwood team

Betting tip: Back Hawthorn to win on the handicap line (-27.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



Fremantle ($3.55) v Western Bulldogs ($1.30)

• A miserable season for the Dockers (and those who backed them!) ends at home to the Doggies, who’ll probably get home advantage in the finals if they win here

• Fremantle have won only three games all season and will struggle to score against the Dogs miserly defence

• Odds of $1.30 for a Bulldogs win look spot on, so take them to cover the line instead at better value price of 1.92

Betting tip: Back Western Bulldogs to win on the handicap line (-19.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



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AFL Round 20 betting tips:


Richmond ($2.65) v Collingwood ($1.48)

• The Tigers haven’t beaten Collingwood in a Friday night game since 2007. The Magpies won the Round two fixture with a last second goal

• Richmond are the worst tackling side in the while competition, averaging just 46.8 per game. The Pies are ranked second at 79.1 per game

• Collingwood impressed last week against West Coast. Richmond’s final score of 23 at GWS was the Club’s lowest score since 1961.

Betting tip: Back Collingwood to win on the handicap line (-12.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake



Sydney ($1.23) v Port Adelaide ($4.25)

• Both teams had huge wins (and long flights) in Round 19. Port go the SCG needing a win to keep alive their mathematical chances of making the 8

• The Swans dominate the Power at the SCG, winning 10 of the last 13 contests

• The handicap line looks too low here, especially with Josh Kennedy in career best form. Back the Swans to continue their fine run against the Power

Betting tip: Back Sydney to win on the handicap line (-26.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake



Melbourne ($5.75) v Hawthorn ($1.14)

• Melbourne’s match against Gold Coast in Round 19 was the worst AFL game in recent years. If the Demons play anything like that they can expect a 100+ points defeat

• Top of the ladder Hawks are looking for their 10th consecutive win and have won the past 13 matches vs Melbourne

• Again, the handicap line looks a bit too low here. Back Hawthorn for minimum stakes (The Demons can stifle teams but Hawthorn should have too much firepower)

Betting tip: Back Hawthorn to win on the handicap line (-35.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



Gold Coast ($6.50) v GWS Giants ($1.11)

• The key stat for this game: GWS are ranked #1 in the AFL for clearances, Gold Cost are ranked last.

• The Giants have won more quarters in 2016 than any other team and are 2nd highest scoring team in the competition (marginally behind Adelaide)

• Gold Coast have been much improved in recent weeks winning three of the last five. Should have been four of five but for a late slip vs the Demons. This could be a really open and high scoring game

Betting tip: Back the total match points to be over 190.5 at odds of $1.90 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



Western Bulldogs ($2.05) v North Melbourne ($1.77)

• 7th v 8th in the best game of the Round at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night. North are looking for a fourth consecutive win over the Bulldogs

• Both teams have mathematical chances of a Top 4 finish so this game is crucial.

• Ravaging injuries over the past weeks for the Doggies – surely now their squad is unable to cope? The Kangaroos are back in decent form and should be too good here

Betting tip: Back North Melbourne to win the game at odds of $1.77 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake. Cash Back if the ‘Roos lead at any break but lose the game



Adelaide ($1.01) v Brisbane ($21.00)

• Big opportunity for the Crows to boost their percentage and move into the Top 4, so they certainly won’t let up against a woeful Brisbane side

• Adelaide are the tops scorers in the comp (1,963 points) and Brisbane have conceded the most (2,310) – this could be a real hammering for the Lions

• Adelaide will win easily, and maybe by 100+ which you can bet on at Sportsbet

Betting tip: Back Adelaide to win the game by 100+ points at odds of $3.40 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake. Cash Back if the ‘Roos lead at any break but lose the game



Carlton ($2.40) v St Kilda ($1.57)

• Great efforts in the last two rounds by Carlton against the Swans and Hawks. The Blues will relish this contest back at the ‘G against lesser opposition

• Tough game to call. Carlton rarely put a big score on the board, yet the Saints have a really poor record at the MCG

• At the odds, you have to back Carlton at $2.40 in what should be a low scoring game

Betting tip: Back Carlton to win the game at odds of $2.40 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake. Cash Back if the Blues lead at any break but lose the game



Geelong ($1.01) v Essendon ($21.00)

• It looks like percentage will decide the final Top 4 teams, so the Cats will want to really put the Bombers to the sword at Etihad stadium

• Still only a single victory all year to Essendon and they are a huge price to win this game at $21.00

• Geelong will win comfortably and need to post a big margin to hold off Adelaide on the ladder – the Cats are currently in the Top 4 by just 0.1%

• Two bets in this game: Geelong to cover the handicap line and Geelong to win by 100+ points

Betting tip 1 : Back Geelong to win on the handicap line (-67.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake

Betting tip 2 : Back Geelong to win the game by 100+ points at odds of $5.00 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.



Fremantle ($4.25) v West Coast ($1.23)

• A shocking season for the Dockers keeps getting worse. This time last year they were top of the ladder!

• West Coast were edged out late on at Collingwood last week but never really looked in control. Despite the Dockers horror run of form and injuries, they’ll be sure give a greater effort in the derby

• With a vociferous ‘home’ crowd here the Dockers will desperately want a good news story for their fans. Considering this will be a fierce game, the handicap line looks too high at 27.5 points. Back Freo to keep it tight

Betting tip: Back Fremantle to win on the handicap line (+27.5 points) at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake



BEST BET OF THE WEEKEND: GEELONG AND ADELAIDE BOTH TO WIN BY 100+ POINTS AT SPORTSBET.COM.AU PAYING OVER 20/1 FOR THE MULTI

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Welcome to our AFL Round 17 betting preview.

The Round kicks off on Thursday night again with a potential Grand Final rehearsal between the Swans and Hawks.


AFL Round 17 Best Bets


Sydney ($1.68) v Hawthorn ($2.20)

• The Swans are the #1 contested possession side in the comp which will be key for this battle. The Hawks are ranked just 13th

• The Swans have won six form seven at the SCG this season. The Hawks have lost three of their last four games in Sydney

• The Swans victory last Friday in Geelong was their best performance of the year, and they can follow up here by defeating Hawthorn for the 2nd time this season

Betting tip: Back Sydney to win the game at odds of $1.68 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.



Fremantle ($5.50) v Geelong ($1.14)

• Out of form Fremantle have an awful home record this year, losing five from seven in Perth

• Geelong is ranked #1 in the league for inside 50’s – The Dockers are ranked 16th and their scoring average is only 71 points per game

• The Cats haven’t won since Round 13 so victory is a must if they want to finish Top 4. Geelong should win but it might be tighter than the Bookies think

Betting tip: Back Geelong to win the game by 1-39 points at odds of $2.10 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.



Richmond ($1.15) v Essendon ($5.85)

• In 65 contests at the MCG the score stands at 32 wins each and one draw!

• The improving Bombers posted their biggest score of the year in Round 16 with 98 points against St Kilda, in a game they could have won if Daniher had kicked a late set shot

• Two poor defences match up here so it could be a shoot-out. The value could lie in the total match points market which looks low at 176.5

Betting tip: Back over 176.5 total match points at odds of $1.88 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.



North Melbourne ($1.34) v Port Adelaide ($3.18)

• Every North Melbourne game played this season so far has been won by the betting favourites in the head to head market! So North should win here despite a recent slump

• North like playing Port - these teams meet for the 31st time and North lead 21-9 in the clashes so far

• Two poor defences match up here so it could be a shoot-out. The value could lie in the total match points market which looks low at 176.5

Betting tip: The odds are too restrictive for a single bet, so include North Melbourne in your Round 17 multis at odds of $1.34 with Sportsbet.com.au



Western Bulldogs ($1.14) v Gold Coast ($5.50)

• Important to note that this game is being played in Cairns, a venue where both teams have a good record

• Gold Coast continue to improve despite a never ending injury list - now added to by Ablett’s latest shoulder problem

• The Bulldogs should win but we won’t be backing them at odds of $1.14 and the handicap line looks about right at -31.5 points

Betting tip: No bet advised



Adelaide ($1.17) v Collingwood ($4.90)

• Adelaide are the highest scoring team in the competition with an average of 112 points per game

• Collingwood sprang a huge shock last week when winning at GWS at odds of $10.00 – don’t expect the Crows to be caught cold like the Giants were

• The Magpies have never won at the Adelaide Oval. The Crows have only been beaten at home once this season (Geelong)

Betting tip: Back Adelaide -31.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.



Carlton ($5.50) v West Coast ($1.14)

• West Coast average 120 points at Domain Stadium but only 80 away from home, which gives Carlton a small chance here

• The Blues have really struggled recently after a tremendous mid-season run but might fare better back at home in what could be a low scoring encounter

• Carlton need to keep Kennedy in check, if they do they can cover the handicap line of 33.5 points

Betting tip: Back Carlton +33.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.



St Kilda ($1.99) v Melbourne ($1.78)

• Melbourne has only won one of its past 24 matches at the Etihad Stadium and were thumped here by the Saints in Round six this year at the same venue

• St Kilda has won the past 13 contests against Melbourne – and we’re really struggling to work out why the bookies have the Demons as favourites here….

• With such one-sided stats heading into this clash the odds of 1.99 for the Saints to win on the head to head market is fantastic value, especially using Sportsbet’s ‘lead at any break and money back’ promotion

Betting tip: Back St Kilda to win the game at odds of $1.99 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 3-units stake.



Brisbane ($11.50) v GWS Giants ($1.04)

• Brisbane have now lost 11 consecutive matches and will probably equal the club losing record of 12 on Sunday

• The Lions have the worst defence in the competition by far, conceding an average of 126 points per game

• GWS were probably too complacent against the Pies last week and remain a potential Top four team, they should win here easily in a high scoring game

Betting tip: Back over 190.5 total match points at odds of $1.88 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.


Round 17 footy comp tips:
Sydney
Geelong
Richmond
North Melbourne
Western Bulldogs
Adelaide
West Coast
St Kilda
GWS Giants

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Port Adelaide ($2.70) v Hawthorn ($1.47)

The Power have won three of their last four games against the Hawks and this is developing into a serious rivalry. Hawthorn sit first on the ladder and are coming off a bye week so will be fresh for a tough encounter.

Port Adelaide need to win this to have any chance of making finals and home advantage is crucial at The Oval.

This should be a tight game and we’re giving Port a serious chance to build on their impressive record against the Premiers – especially with a 10.5 handicap line start.

Betting tip: Back Port Adelaide +10.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.


Geelong ($1.48) v Sydney ($2.65)

This match is shaping to be a 2016 Grand Final rehearsal as second place Cats take on the fourth place Swans at Simonds Stadium. The teams are separated only by percentage on the ladder.

The Swans missed out on being top of the ladder in a last gasp defeat against the Western Bulldogs last Saturday. The Cats have also had a few issues recently with shock defeats to Carlton, Collingwood and most recently St Kilda.

Again, home advantage is crucial with this game being at Geelong’s home ground. Centre clearances will be key in a game where the midfield battle should define the outcome – Geelong are ranked 1st and Sydney just 14th.

Betting tip: Back Geelong to win the game at odds of $1.48 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.


Greater Western Sydney ($1.05) v Collingwood ($8.00)

GWS have never beaten Collingwood but that will change on Saturday at Spotless Stadium. The question is how much will the Giants win by?

There is a huge gulf in scoring between the sides this season with the Giants averaging 109 points per game and Collingwood just 81. Shiel, Ward and Coniglio are in outstanding form for GWS the Pies midfield will really struggle.

At odds of just 1.05 in the head to head market we need to look elsewhere for value, and a handicap line of minus 45.5 looks appealing in what should be a one-sided affair.

Betting tip: Back GWS -45.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.


Gold Coast ($1.20) v Brisbane ($4.60)

At last the Suns are hitting some form, and they’ll be confident of landing just their fifth win of a disappointing season which promised much early on.

Brisbane are uncompetitive to say the least, winning just one game all season and conceding a mammoth 1,761 points in the process. That’s 228 points more than Essendon!

Gary Ablett is gaining fitness and confidence which is a bad sign for the Lions.

Back the Suns to win comfortably.

Betting tip: Back Gold Coast -31.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.


Western Bulldogs ($1.17) v Richmond ($4.90)

Richmond’s faint finals hopes are now over and they look to rebuild, again. The Tigers current situation couldn’t be more different than the entertaining and impressive Bulldogs.

What we don’t is how Richmond will line up for the rest of the season – will they give youth a chance?

The Tigers often spring surprises at huge odds when least expected which makes us wary of taking them on with a handicap line of 31.5 points, which looks about right.

Include the Bulldogs in your multis at 1.17 but leave them alone in the handicap markets.

Betting tip: No bet advised


Melbourne ($1.35) v Fremantle ($3.20)

Important for betting purposes to note this game is being played in Darwin despite in being a Demons home game.

The Demons have promised much this season but only have six wins to show for it. The Dockers have improved greatly in recent weeks despite having a string of major players out with long term injuries.

In the Darwin humidity this could be a real slog and we cannot work out why Melbourne are such a short price at 1.35.

Fremantle have every chance here and odds of 3.20 look great value. The best outside bet of the week.

Betting tip: Back Fremantle to win the game at odds of $3.20 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.


Carlton ($5.00) v Adelaide ($1.17)

The Crows head back to the MCG for the second time in a week to face a Carlton team who’ve lost their last three games.

Adelaide are averaging 113 points per game and should have too much firepower here against a Blues team with an average of just 72 points per match.

But with a forecast of heavy rain in Melbourne on Sunday this might be a low scoring affair if Carlton can slow the Crows impressive offense.

Given Carlton only scored 45 points at the same venue last weekend, the total match points line looks too high at 177.5.

Betting tip: Back under 177.5 total match points at odds of $1.88 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 1-unit stake.


West Coast ($1.42) v North Melbourne ($2.85)

Flat track bullies West Coast are still yet to beat a top eight team this season. A remarkable stat for a team still classed as genuine Premiership challengers.

The Roos have lost four of their last five though, and over in Perth they could really struggle against one of the league’s best home teams (Only Adelaide have won at West Coast so far this season)

The Eagles average 122 points at Domain Stadium in 2016 and should comfortably outscore a North outfit which are going backwards.

Betting tip: Back West Coast -19.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.


Essendon ($7.50) v St Kilda ($1.11)

The Bombers have been relatively competitive recently despite not having won for three months.

St Kilda beat Geelong in Round 14 but then were smashed by the Suns last week which sums up their inconsistent season.

The key factor here is the Bombers inability to score – they average just 59 points per game, which is the lowest of any side since 1961!

The Saints will win and the handicap line of -41.5 points looks value.

Betting tip: Back St Kilda -41.5 points on the handicap line at odds of $1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au for a 2-units stake.


Good Luck!

Bet-au.com AFL Tipping Team

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