Archive for September, 2009
I’m all for a nibble on Black Piranha
September 16th, 2009 by adminTuesday is another day. It’s also the day before the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle, when our quest to pick out the Cox Plate contenders continues.
We nearly ended up with sweet FA horse racing in midweek thanks to the row between the Australian Jockeys’ Association and the Australian Racing Board regarding whip rules. Had talks on Monday not gone to plan, we could have ended up with a jockey’s strike and a very vacant-looking Pom de Turf and potentially a rather sparse-looking blog.
Anyway, the new rules, which come in on Saturday, will see use of the whip allowed seven times in total in the last 12 strides, the sequence of which will be at riders discretion. The existing penalty structure has also been ditched and a panel is being set up to determine a new one. In short, the show can go on.
Back to Newcastle and the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap is particularly interesting thanks to the presence of Black Piranha. This is the start of the Con Karakatsanis-trained horse’s campaign, with the group 1 star having already won some $1.7m in stakemoney.
The gelding has gone through two barrier trials prior to Wednesday and came second in one of them on the Broadmeadow course. As such, he’s likely to be well-prepared and you may be able to get a reasonable price on him for Wednesday because it’s his first-up race. A quick look round gives us 3.00 for the win with ISAbet – go, go, go turf lovers. Closest to this is Ahdashim on 5.00 with the same bookmaker.
So, to the Cox Plate markets now and we have 15.00 for Black Piranha with Centrebet ahead of Wednesday – possibly worth an early interest given how far Whobegotyou plummeted after his win at the weekend – he’s the current favourite with the same bookmaker on a decidedly skinny 3.50.
While we’re talking about the Cox Plate betting, a quick Melbourne Cup round-up for you as well. I promised myself I’d keep quiet, but time is ticking on fast now. C’est La Guerre is current favourite on 9.00 with Centrebet, with Vigor on the same odds and Profound Beauty and Speed Gifted on 11.00. This will no doubt all change between now and November 3, and I’ll be drip-feeding juicy morsels as the clock ticks down. Meanwhile Black Piranha is our best shot this week at biting a chunk out of the bookies. Go fish.
Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
Read more »Murray madness, Moonee Valley betting and a look at the NRL and AFL finals
September 11th, 2009 by adminMy street cred in the online tennis betting world is in tatters this morning thanks to Andy Murray, who was looking quite plausible for the US Open on 4.00 with Canbet yesterday.
That was until he decided to implode against Marin Cilic in the fourth round and go down in straight sets. Cheers Andy.
Looking on the bright side, Rafael Nadal looked much better in his own fourth round clash with Gael Monfils, showing little signs of his injury troubles to win in four sets. He’s since shrunk to 5.00 for the tournament with Canbet, which is still looking reasonable against Roger Federer’s measly 1.62.
Back to the horse racing tipping now and my hunch, Wanna Play Doctor, note ‘hunch’ that’s H-U-N-C-H, came fourth in the Perth Racing Tv Handicap at Belmont Park on Wednesday. His record is still one win and a fourth place in three starts.
Elsewhere and looking ahead to the weekend racing I’m already intrigued by the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Lining up are two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, the former of which has a great record at this venue, not least the Cox Plate itself in 2007. Whobegotyou is last season’s Caulfield Guineas winner and both are at the top of this year’s Cox Plate betting. I’ll be keeping an eye on these two and rest of the field going into the end of the week.
Now on to the markets for the AFL and NRL finals, which are all over the place as the week’s build-ups gather place.
To summarise, the AFL semis are on Friday and Saturday, with Western Bulldogs (1.25) taking on Brisbane Lions (4.00) and Collingwood Magpies (2.12) against Adelaide Crows (1.73), with current odds from Centrenbet.
With the NRL finals, week one starts on Friday with Storm v Sea Eagles, then Saturday sees Titans v Broncos and Bulldogs v Knights, followed by Dragons v Eels on Sunday. Overall current favourites are St George on 3.25, with Melbourne Storm on 5.50. I’ll be monitoring the team news as it happens this week before casting my hat into the ring.
There you go, four sports in one post, that should make you feel better after Murraygate.
Read more »A midweek racing hunch, and narrow odds at the US Open
September 9th, 2009 by adminHorse racing-wise the midweek meetings all feel a bit mundane compared to Saturday’s high jinks, but there are some good little sub-plots nonetheless.
Firstly a quick nod to Fiveoclockshadow who was last in the Cherrybrook Park Welter at Warwick Farm on Tuesday.
No, I didn’t tip him, but it was nice to see him out nonetheless after I read earlier in the week this was only his seventh start in close to three years after injury and flu problems. Trainer Nerissa Cowell, formerly of Queensland, found herself stuck in NSW in 2007 after an equine influenza outbreak so it’s nice to see Fiveoclockshadow racing again.
Elsewhere on Wednesday there’s betting to be had at Canterbury, Doomben, Belmont Park and others. At Belmont Park little-known Wanna Play Doctor has caught my eye for some reason in the 1400m Perth Racing Tv Handicap. He’s a four-year-old with two wins in his two starts to date, both at this distance, so I’d be tempted to nudge something modest on this.
Online tennis betting markets are providing plenty of interest at the moment thanks to the US Open. Odds in the women’s event are dominated by Serena Williams, who is on 1.65 for the title with Canbet, ahead of Kim Clijsters on 3.75.
The men’s event is similarly dominated by one player in the shape of Swiss Roger Federer (isn’t every tournament?) on 1.83 with the same bookmaker ahead of Andy Murray on 4.00. It’s a fair bet that Murray will have to beat Federer at some point if he is to win it and the Scot has a great record against him at six wins in eight meetings, so that 4.00 on Murray isn’t looking so bad.
Also in the running is Rafael Nadal on 9.00 with Canbet which looks tempting doesn’t it? However the Spaniard is carrying an injury and has struggled to hide the abdominal problem from the press and has hardly been talking himself up: “I am a little bit tired to talk about injuries. I am here to try my best every day.” is the best he could manage earlier this week.
Some early weekend horse racing pointers tomorrow and a nice dose of AFL and NRL crunch time info.
Read more »Miss Marielle, will you marry me?
September 8th, 2009 by adminMonday’s are not once they were. At one time they were grey, dull, and bereft of optimism. Then I took up the task of crafting Australian horse racing tips and everything changed.
The first day of the week is now defined by the weekend’s horse racing – if my shouts for the weekend have come through, Monday is not blue, it’s green with dollars and smugness.
Let’s backtrack to Friday first, when the Wyong Gold Cup kicked off the weekend at Wyong. I went with Mr Clangtastic after his trainer switched him there at short notice as the rain fell on Thursday and he came through in fine style, 3.70 third favourite with Centrebet when I pointed him out.
As a side issue, the less said about my NRL shout for the Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time on Friday, the better. Cough cough. Moving swiftly on…….
Next the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday provided the entertainment. Black Caviar was on 1.75 on Friday with Centrebet, but I urged a wad on this as she was likely to drop further. Ok, ok, so she did have one of those shaky starts of hers but she won it didn’t she? And she shrank to 1.45 with some bookmakers so no chuckling please.
Unfortunately it was a mighty tough one for her on Saturday and trainer Peter Moody has since revealed she could have sustained a injury with that dodgy start. I’m keeping my eyes on this as she looked a good shot for the Cox Plate and has already made friends with punters and hacked off the bookies with four wins in four.
There was less luck at the Makybe Diva Stakes on the same card at Flemington I’m afraid, but if I’d picked three tricky winners in a row people would be saying something was up. My shout was Heart of Dreams but outsider Vigor took the honours.
Then to the 1600m Chelmesford Stakes at Randwick – it was a tough one and O’Lonhro, the favourite, won it, with my ‘long shot’ shout Roman Emperor fifth.
But wait for it, who’s that in second? Miss Marielle, you beauty, my advice for a Friday placings bet on 6.33 with IASbet.
That’s a three out of four racing success rate for the weekend. It sounds better when I say “75 per cent”.
Tomorrow I’ll have a closer look at some of the midweek racing, and it’s about time I dipped into the tennis betting markets as the US Open hots up. Happy Monday from the Pom de Turf.
Read more »Much love for Heart of Dreams and Miss Marielle
September 5th, 2009 by adminAfter making hay with Mic Mac and Denman last weekend I can hardly wait for Saturday’s horse racing, which has no Golden Rose to whip me into a group 1 fever but does have a couple of very interesting races to make or break your morale.
I’ll get the the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington out of the way first. I say ‘out of the way’ because picking the winner is a distinctly grim task – it’s going to be Black Caviar unless there’s a gigantic upset.
The filly looks something special and has stormed to three wins in her first three starts and has been recording ‘freakish’ times. As such she’s on a recession-like 1.75 with Centrebet.
If you are quick it might actually be worth slapping a pile on this because Rostova, another promising youngster, has been scratched, according to Centrebet, and Manhattan Rain, one of the most valuable horses in Australia, is out as well after an underwhelming trial on Tuesday. Black Caviar is likely to drop further and of the other eight horses running only two are over 6.00 for a placings bet – Extra Zero at 7.50 and 51.00 for the win and Point Pain, 21.00 or a whopping 151.00 for the win.
The group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes is also at Flemington tomorrow and is much, much tighter. Typhoon Tracy is the favourite here on 2.82, followed by Predatory Pricer on 4.1 and Heart of Dreams on 5.1 – oops as I say that he’s just gone to 5.00 with Betfair so is dropping – form is strong for all three going into this one but because we’re seeing movement if I had to I’d go with Heart of Dreams now.
On to the 1600m Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick now, and O’Lonhro is the out-and-out favourite and has shrunk throughout the week to stand on 2.80 with IASbet – he has two wins and two placings from his last four and runs from barrier six. Close behind are Court Command on 4.50 and Triple Honour at 5.40, both with Betfair. This is a tricky one and I actually have a good feeling about Roman Emperor, on 12.00 with Betfair – don’t look at me like that, it’s just a ‘feeling’. Also there’s Miss Marielle on 12.00 for the win but certainly worth a little look on 6.33 for a placing with IASbet.
Wyong Gold Cup tipping is mighty close to call
September 4th, 2009 by adminThe Wyong weather means tipping fans may want to take an umbrella and a wad of cash to the Wyong Gold Cup on Friday, where the conditions make for some interesting betting.
It’s a very open field and an ideal chance to test your mettle ahead of Saturday’s Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick, which is shaping up very nicely indeed.
Among those who may like it wet at Wyong is Mr Clangtastic, at 3.70 with Centrebet, but he’s not the only one comfortable after bad weather. There’s been word on the web that Enzedex Eagle can also do well whatever happens with the climate.
Centrebet has Enzedex Eagle installed as the 3.00 favourite and Lodge the Deeds is the second favourite on 3.50 with the same bookmaker.
Yes, that’s three runners hovering between 3.00 and 3.70. Following this trio we’ve got Scarlet in at 9.00. Hence it’s a tricky one but given pretty much all his impressive stuff to date has come following wet weather if I had to I’d go with Mr Clangtastic.
If it starts to chuck it down again, please don’t be tempted by Thunder and Rain – all the way out at 151.00 with Centrebet, which is not worth the pun.
Casting the net to NRL betting now and on Friday the Bulldogs have the carrot of the minor NRL premiership if they can overcome Wests Tigers. The Tigers have rallied recently but lost last time out and so are out of the running for the finals.
It’s hard to see the Bulldogs not making it and you can get 1.92 for the Bulldogs to be leading at half-time and full-time with Betfair. On the other hand the Tigers can really play when they feel like it and will be keen to put on a show for the fans so Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time at 6.80 with Betfair also looks good.
Tomorrow there will be a few words on the Chelmsford Stakes and plenty more on the rest of Saturday’s racing. Happy Thursday turf lovers.
Read more »Black Caviar today. The horse, not the sturgeon eggs. Saturday wasn’t that successful.
September 3rd, 2009 by adminBesides tipping who is going to win races, I’ve recently been trying to pick up on who is not going to make the grade. Unsurprisingly deciding which bets are likely to fall flat is easier, but there is at least some brainpower needed.
For example it would’ve been easy to plump for Trusting in the Golden Rose on Saturday given his previous win in the Warwick Stakes – and with many bookies he was joint second favourite on about 5.80 on Thursday and Friday. I decided to steer clear because one Warwick Stakes win does not a Golden Rose winner make and the coverage of Trusting had smelled partly of pure hype the week before. Hence I went with Denman as a safer bet.
The point I’m trying to make is it may seem risky to call an avoid on a horse who appears to be attracting plenty of attention and plaudits, but there is method to my madness.
On Saturday we have the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington and Manhattan Rain, trained by Gai Waterhouse and known as one of the most valuable horses this side of the Danube, will be appearing. Given his touted worth of $20 million you’d think he’d be a wise move for Saturday but the midweek reports suggest otherwise.
Today the press has been awash with the news he didn’t fare that well in a four-horse 800m trial on Tuesday and will have blinkers on Saturday.
“It was a bit like ‘Well, here I am’,” is how Gail Waterhouse described his performance in the Sydney Morning Herald. I know just how he feels. Anyway, early doors he may be among the favourites but this race also involves filly Black Caviar, as yet unbeaten, while Grand Harmony was the winner of Tuesday’s trial and lead all the way to win at Seymour last month.
While I’ve got your attention it’s worth taking a look at how Saturday’s result in the Golden Rose has affected Denman’s odds for the season’s main events. He is now at 17.00 for the Cox Plate with IASbet, ahead of the aforementioned Black Caviar, who is on 21.00 for the Plate – possibly worth a shot now before what could be a good performance from the filly on Saturday?
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