Archive for October, 2009
NRL betting still favours a gathering Storm
October 4th, 2009 by adminAttention turns away from the track today for all but the most dedicated of turf fans. NRL grand final day is upon us, and we have a clear favourite in Melbourne Storm, who have been leading in the NRL betting markets all week.
As I said on Friday, every tipster under the sun has been going for the Storm over the Eels, and I see no reason to scream otherwise. Shopping around finds you 1.58 for Melbourne to 2.40 for The Eels with IASbet, and 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points looks reasonable with the same bookmaker.
Anything can happen on finals day however, and for amusement only here are some classic NRL grand final upsets and nailbiters from over the years;
-Penrith Panthers 18 Sydney Roosters 6; 2003
Penrith shocked perhaps even themselves by getting two early tries to gain control of the game before a heroic defensive display saw them upset the odds and hold out for a win.
-Newcastle Knights 22 Manly 16; 1997
Underdogs Newcastle won the match at the death thanks to a try from winger Darren Albert. They’d unexpectedly started the game strongly but faced a Manly fightback and were behind for the majority of the game before late heroics.
Canberra 19 Balmain 14; 1989
Balmain led 12-2 at half-time and enjoyed the rub of the green before it came back at them in the second half in every sense. Steve Jackson scored the crucial final try for Canberra and wrote the game into the history books.
Still feeling confident? No? This is the problem with finals – the gods often come down and lend a hand. One thing is clear about today though – the result will depend on how Melbourne handle Eels fullback Jarryd Hayne, a nimble giant of a man who could pinch it from them if he’s even allowed a sniff of a half-decent day.
Enjoy the chaos from Sydney. Tomorrow I’ll be doing my usual round-up of the weekend and starting a monster build-up week for the Caulfield Guineas.
Read more »Saturday preview for (hopefully) rainy Randwick
October 3rd, 2009 by adminIt’s promising to be a spectacular spring Saturday at Randwick today. Yes, that’s right, it’s the weekend. Pleased to see me? You will be if I pick a crop of betting winners.
A quick summary for you. There are a whopping 10 races on at Randwick today, with five of them group 1. Weather is expected to be rainy following a few showers on Friday too.
Highlights include;
-The Epsom Handicap over 1600m. In here you will find one or two performers from the George Main Stakes, including winner Road To Rock and Black Piranha, second in last weekend’s race.
Last time I looked the betting for this one was very tight and generally looked ready to bite a chunk out of the backside of any passing punter. Rangirangdoo comes out as the favourite with IASbet, having dropped slightly, followed by Drumbeats on 4.80 and Road To Rock on 5.00. I’d avoid unless you know something I don’t but it may be worth a placings shot on O’Lonhro or Mr Baritone if a decent price is to be had.
-The Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m. A clear favourite here – Onemorenomore on 2.35 with IASbet. He’s taking a new path after he came third in the George Main Stakes last weekend, and is no longer off to the Caulfield Guineas but none the less looked good last time out. 2.35 or better seems sensible here.
-The Metropolitan over 2400m. Here I’d advise you to watch the weather and the track. Mr Clangtastic, on 5.50 with IASbet, likes the wet weather and a heavy track. If it’s wetter than the deep blue sea out there and your finest Wellingtons are looking brown this price looks good for him, although his trainer could have him scratched if the track is good. Also looking interesting here is Zavite for a possible placings shot, but bear in mind there’s an army of runners hovering around 14.00 to 24.00 ready to make you blush.
Good luck people. It’s very open today and I’ll be taking it easy. If it all flattens in the mud for you there’s always the NRL grand final betting markets, more on that tomorrow morning. Turf’s up.
Read more »Pray for rain, racing punters
October 3rd, 2009 by admin‘Won’t blame it on myself. I’ll blame it on the weatherman’. Yes turf fans, late-90s pop is my get-out clause for tomorrow thanks to the unpredictable clouds gathering over Sydney on Friday.
Mr Clangtastic remains my shout in the Metropolitan at Randwick tomorrow but he could be pulled from the race if the heavens fail to open. Trainer Marc Conners has been quoted by AAP saying he’ll wait until the last possible moment before making a decision and if the track is good or better he probably won’t be running, such is his preference for the wet.
This begs the question, if he’s not in it, who is going to come out on top? Mr Clangtastic is currently on 5.50 with Sportsbet, while Speed Gifted is current favourite on 3.60 and Ready To Lift is on 6.00 and is my second shout.
I’m not planning to go mental tomorrow though – as the week has gone on the markets for both the ten-race card at Randwick and fixtures for Flemington have become more open and there’s plenty of bookie mantraps ready to chomp your wallet down to size tomorrow.
If you must have a swing at the Epsom Handicap Rangirangdoo has held firm all week and looks reasonable on 3.00 with Sportsbet.
Time to turn back to the NRL betting markets for Friday now, and naturally plenty of cash is going to be put down tomorrow before Sunday and could alter odds slightly, but I don’t expect the head-to-head odds to change much.
Betfair has Melbourne Storm as the favourites on 1.63 and Parramatta Eels are on 2.56. I’ve already said this week that finals betting gives me the creeps, but don’t be fooled by the fact Parramatta have been on a storming run – the Storm are still the better side from the season over all and can become the team of the decade if they win.
On Sunday I’ll make you feel green at the gills by taking you through some of the great NRL upsets, just to cause uncomfortable confusion, but tipsters everywhere are going for the Storm and I’m joining them.
Tomorrow I’ll be providing you with a Randwick overview before racing gets under way – just remember to watch the skies. Turf’s up.
Read more »NRL betting markets refuse to move, like a fat prop
October 2nd, 2009 by adminAs the week passes by it’s clear there’s going to be little movement in the NRL betting markets ahead of the grand final on Sunday.
If you ask me, I’m not a massive finals betting fan – because anything can happen in a final, and it frequently does. Knockout ties in general are very unpredictable – just look at what happened between St Kilda and Geelong in the recent AFL grand final. St Kilda were the marginal outsiders in the betting markets but looked like a good shout thanks to their form throughout the regular season. All was looking good until the end when the Cats pinched it and put a smile back on the face of the bookies. I was one of the ones left with a face like a smacked bum.
Anyway, that said, it’s a very miserable NRL betting fan who doesn’t have at least a little wager for the grand final.
Over at Betfair we see odds of 1.64 for Melbourne and 2.52 for Parramatta. Odds for the Storm have only hovered from about 1.70 to about 1.62, while the Eels started down at about 2.20 and rose somewhat before settling at 2.52 where they look likely to stay. Nothing remarkable about any of this and to be fair they were the best odds I could find on Thursday. Worth a small tickle on Parramatta perhaps, but more on this in the run-up to the final.
There’s a whopping 10 race card at Randwick on Saturday including the aforementioned Epsom Handicap. This is where I’ll be focussing most of my attention at the weekend, especially as mother nature is threatening to intervene.
Forecasts for Sydney today say sunshine and showers on Friday followed by the possibility of a deluge on Saturday. This poses some interesting questions in particular for The Metropolitan which features Mr Clangtastic, currently on 6.50 with Sportingbet.
I’ve picked him out because he has performed for me in the past, especially in the wet, winning the Wyong Cup. Trainer Marc Conners tends to watch the skies and sends him where the rain is but it may come to him on Saturday. So I’d have a wee wedge on that 6.50 now and do a rain dance.
Payne’s racing record speaks for itself chaps
October 1st, 2009 by adminWhether or not you’ve got money on El Segundo in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, you’d have to be pretty cold-hearted not to have a soft spot for him.
Piloting the 2007 Cox Plate winner is female jockey Michelle Payne – called in by trainer Colin Little due to a suspension handed to Luke Nolen.
The 24-year-old has won more than 400 races and will probably see Saturday as one of the biggest opportunities of her life. Mainly because she is a woman.
Despite her success and wealth of experience, which includes riding in England, Ireland and France, news of her scheduled appearance on Saturday is greeted with welcome surprise by the media, because, despite the progress made by the sport in recent years, Payne is still something of a rarity.
The Pom De Turf is in philosophical mood on this otherwise unremarkable Wednesday afternoon. Bear with me.
In my homeland racing is seen as a still-successful sport but one with an uncertain future – beyond the likes of the Grand National and Ladies’ Day at Ascot, racing is still associated with old men in smoky rooms by a lot of people.
To safeguard the long-term future of the sport, this has to change and female jockeys are very much part of that important pattern of change. That’s why even if El Segundo beats my tip on Saturday I won’t cry over spilt dollars.
[Removes elbow-padded jacket] Right, onto the betting for the Turnbull Stakes.
As it happens Payne says Flemington is her favourite course and she already has form with El Segundo, having piloted him to his maiden win. He’s currently on 10.00 with IASbet and will likely drop before the race – there are four horses ahead of him in the betting at the moment, but if you fancy a punt in solidarity the time is very much now.
Predatory Pricer is the current favourite, but only just, on 4.60, with Vigor right behind him on 4.80. Then comes Maldivian on 5.50. Too close to call right now and a placings bet might be more worthwhile come Friday, then again it might not, I’ll update on this later in the week.
Now I’m off to join old men in a smoky room to watch the action from Moonee Valley. Just kidding, thank god.
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