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Guineas confusion reigns thanks to Demerit
September 22nd, 2009 by admin<!– @page { size: 21cm 29.7cm; margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } –>
Thankfully I’m not the only one wondering what the hell just happened today. There are a fair few trainers and owners scratching their heads as well, which makes me feel a bit better. For Saturday, my friends, was again not the finest hour for many horse racing betting lovers.
Trusting and Manhattan Rain looked set to dominate the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield but both were outsmarted by Demerit, who was out on about 8.00 to 9.00 before the race. Trusting, my shout with Centrebet, ended up a close second, with Manhattan Rain in third.
The race was supposed to give us some early clues as to the winner of the Caulfield Guineas next month but instead has left it as wide open as ever. As a result the betting for the Guineas has gone all goo-gah. Demerit has climbed and is on 20.00 with Betfair – which is pretty high compared with some other bookmakers, so this may be a worth a little shot now if the Guineas is very much your thing. Denman remains the favourite on 4.30 while Manhattan Rain is on 10.50 with the same bookmaker.
More despair was to be had in the Underwood Stakes where Heart of Dreams took all the glory, with my shout, Whobegotyou, also in second in this one too. No joke’s about a “bet for a second” button for my winner tips please. It could be worse, I could have tipped star mare Typhoon Tracy, who ended up in eighth. Phew.
The Underwood, like the Prelude, was also meant to help us out ahead of another big one – The Cox Plate. But it’s all as clear as mud for this one as well now. Centrebet still has Whobegotyou as the favourite on 4.00, while Heart of Dreams is now on 11.00.
Thankfully there was some salvation to be had from Geelong versus Collingwood in the last AFL prelim final on Saturday, with the Cats triumphing to book their place in the final. Their odds shrank big style quickly afterwards so hopefully you took my advice to slap something on them early for the final.
We must look forward, like a galloper wearing five inch-wide blinkers. There is plenty to come this week – not least the Manikato Stakes on Friday night. After all, I’m still learning here and we’ve still not had one of the true season headliners yet. Hope springs internal.
Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough
September 19th, 2009 by adminTomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.
Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.
First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.
All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.
Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.
So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.
It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.
Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.
Read more »Online cricket betting gives England mighty short ODI shrift
September 18th, 2009 by adminA slight back seat for the horse racing today. I find it helps to sit and take stock on the Thursday, simply because by this point I’ve read so much track news I risk not being able to see the wood for the trees.
First today it’s over to my homeland to point and laugh at the ODI cricket series between England and Australia. The tourists are 5-0 up and take on England at Trent Bridge today for the sixth match and then again at the Riverside on Sunday for the final tie, by which time the hosts will have been put out of their misery.
The Pom de Turf can hear you chuckling. Laugh away, nothing is going to change the location of that little urn for the next two years. What is in doubt, however, is whether England can get anything at all given their poor performance at Trent Bridge on Tuesday when bad fielding cost them the match.
A tour of the online cricket betting markets throws up few surprises for these last two fixtures. Betfair is offering among the best prices for England to get anything at 2.66 which might be worth a look given England did improve on Tuesday and managed to rack up 299 runs, by far their biggest total of the series. If they can just sort the fielding out, then Nottingham might at least have something to cheer about for an evening or two.
Over at Sportingbet, they are offering you 4.25 for Andrew Strauss to get the highest batting score for England and a tempting looking 5.00 for Michael Clarke and 5.50 for Tim Paine to achieve the same marker for Australia.
Looking quickly to the track again I got quite excited when I realised the so-far impressive So You Think was making an appearance in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. Trained by Burt Cummings, the horse has a win and a second place so far and looks likely to head to the Caulfield Guineas next month. However, the best I could find so far is 1.70 with IASbet, if you find better than this, certainly worth a shot, methinks.
Tomorrow its the usual deluge of information ahead of Saturday and Sunday – let’s hope I get it right this time. Turf’s up.
Underwood Stakes could be a punter’s graveyard on Saturday
September 17th, 2009 by adminToday much of the attention is starting to slowly swing towards the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday. This is because some of the form runners of the moment are in the betting for this one, including current Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou, plus the likes of Predatory Pricer, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor. That, my friends, is quite a line-up.
Helpfully, it distracts from the fact that my shout Black Piranha was ‘close but no cigar’ in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday, coming second to Absolutelyfabulous.
In my defence, it was the first race of the season for Black Piranha, so in my view he’s still well on track for a strong shot at the Cox Plate. At 200 metres it looked like jockey Tye Angland had to alter course somewhat, which might be what took my dignity in this one.
Anyway a few early facts on the Underwood. It’s a Caulfield, group 1 affair over over 1800m for three year-olds and up with prize money totalling $350,000.
Whobegotyou ended an 11-month losing streak with the win at the weekend and is to be reunited with jockey Michael Rodd on Saturday. Mark Kavanagh had a dilemma after that win on whether he would go straight into another race at the weekend, and appears to have decided to take the chance to match the horse up with his stablemate Maldivian in the race, who himself is a Cox Plate winner.
Elsewhere, Predatory Pricer and Whobegotyou are fighting a separate duel, having faced each other three times before – Predatory Pricer has two wins from these meetings to just the one for Whobegotyou. Sub-plots galore for this one then, and I won’t be trying to call it until Friday at the earliest. Whobegotyou has already made me look like a wally once, so I’ll be watching his odds very carefully.
The betting is already getting interesting with Whobegotyou the favourite with IASbet on 2.60 and Vigor second favourite on 6.00 with the same bookmaker, having dropped from 7.50 earlier in the week. Typhoon Tracy and Heart of Dreams are on 8.00, with Predatory Pricer looking interesting all the way out on 12.00. Made up your mind? No, neither have I.
Read more »I’m all for a nibble on Black Piranha
September 16th, 2009 by adminTuesday is another day. It’s also the day before the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle, when our quest to pick out the Cox Plate contenders continues.
We nearly ended up with sweet FA horse racing in midweek thanks to the row between the Australian Jockeys’ Association and the Australian Racing Board regarding whip rules. Had talks on Monday not gone to plan, we could have ended up with a jockey’s strike and a very vacant-looking Pom de Turf and potentially a rather sparse-looking blog.
Anyway, the new rules, which come in on Saturday, will see use of the whip allowed seven times in total in the last 12 strides, the sequence of which will be at riders discretion. The existing penalty structure has also been ditched and a panel is being set up to determine a new one. In short, the show can go on.
Back to Newcastle and the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap is particularly interesting thanks to the presence of Black Piranha. This is the start of the Con Karakatsanis-trained horse’s campaign, with the group 1 star having already won some $1.7m in stakemoney.
The gelding has gone through two barrier trials prior to Wednesday and came second in one of them on the Broadmeadow course. As such, he’s likely to be well-prepared and you may be able to get a reasonable price on him for Wednesday because it’s his first-up race. A quick look round gives us 3.00 for the win with ISAbet – go, go, go turf lovers. Closest to this is Ahdashim on 5.00 with the same bookmaker.
So, to the Cox Plate markets now and we have 15.00 for Black Piranha with Centrebet ahead of Wednesday – possibly worth an early interest given how far Whobegotyou plummeted after his win at the weekend – he’s the current favourite with the same bookmaker on a decidedly skinny 3.50.
While we’re talking about the Cox Plate betting, a quick Melbourne Cup round-up for you as well. I promised myself I’d keep quiet, but time is ticking on fast now. C’est La Guerre is current favourite on 9.00 with Centrebet, with Vigor on the same odds and Profound Beauty and Speed Gifted on 11.00. This will no doubt all change between now and November 3, and I’ll be drip-feeding juicy morsels as the clock ticks down. Meanwhile Black Piranha is our best shot this week at biting a chunk out of the bookies. Go fish.
Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
Read more »Murray madness, Moonee Valley betting and a look at the NRL and AFL finals
September 11th, 2009 by adminMy street cred in the online tennis betting world is in tatters this morning thanks to Andy Murray, who was looking quite plausible for the US Open on 4.00 with Canbet yesterday.
That was until he decided to implode against Marin Cilic in the fourth round and go down in straight sets. Cheers Andy.
Looking on the bright side, Rafael Nadal looked much better in his own fourth round clash with Gael Monfils, showing little signs of his injury troubles to win in four sets. He’s since shrunk to 5.00 for the tournament with Canbet, which is still looking reasonable against Roger Federer’s measly 1.62.
Back to the horse racing tipping now and my hunch, Wanna Play Doctor, note ‘hunch’ that’s H-U-N-C-H, came fourth in the Perth Racing Tv Handicap at Belmont Park on Wednesday. His record is still one win and a fourth place in three starts.
Elsewhere and looking ahead to the weekend racing I’m already intrigued by the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Lining up are two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, the former of which has a great record at this venue, not least the Cox Plate itself in 2007. Whobegotyou is last season’s Caulfield Guineas winner and both are at the top of this year’s Cox Plate betting. I’ll be keeping an eye on these two and rest of the field going into the end of the week.
Now on to the markets for the AFL and NRL finals, which are all over the place as the week’s build-ups gather place.
To summarise, the AFL semis are on Friday and Saturday, with Western Bulldogs (1.25) taking on Brisbane Lions (4.00) and Collingwood Magpies (2.12) against Adelaide Crows (1.73), with current odds from Centrenbet.
With the NRL finals, week one starts on Friday with Storm v Sea Eagles, then Saturday sees Titans v Broncos and Bulldogs v Knights, followed by Dragons v Eels on Sunday. Overall current favourites are St George on 3.25, with Melbourne Storm on 5.50. I’ll be monitoring the team news as it happens this week before casting my hat into the ring.
There you go, four sports in one post, that should make you feel better after Murraygate.
Read more »A midweek racing hunch, and narrow odds at the US Open
September 9th, 2009 by adminHorse racing-wise the midweek meetings all feel a bit mundane compared to Saturday’s high jinks, but there are some good little sub-plots nonetheless.
Firstly a quick nod to Fiveoclockshadow who was last in the Cherrybrook Park Welter at Warwick Farm on Tuesday.
No, I didn’t tip him, but it was nice to see him out nonetheless after I read earlier in the week this was only his seventh start in close to three years after injury and flu problems. Trainer Nerissa Cowell, formerly of Queensland, found herself stuck in NSW in 2007 after an equine influenza outbreak so it’s nice to see Fiveoclockshadow racing again.
Elsewhere on Wednesday there’s betting to be had at Canterbury, Doomben, Belmont Park and others. At Belmont Park little-known Wanna Play Doctor has caught my eye for some reason in the 1400m Perth Racing Tv Handicap. He’s a four-year-old with two wins in his two starts to date, both at this distance, so I’d be tempted to nudge something modest on this.
Online tennis betting markets are providing plenty of interest at the moment thanks to the US Open. Odds in the women’s event are dominated by Serena Williams, who is on 1.65 for the title with Canbet, ahead of Kim Clijsters on 3.75.
The men’s event is similarly dominated by one player in the shape of Swiss Roger Federer (isn’t every tournament?) on 1.83 with the same bookmaker ahead of Andy Murray on 4.00. It’s a fair bet that Murray will have to beat Federer at some point if he is to win it and the Scot has a great record against him at six wins in eight meetings, so that 4.00 on Murray isn’t looking so bad.
Also in the running is Rafael Nadal on 9.00 with Canbet which looks tempting doesn’t it? However the Spaniard is carrying an injury and has struggled to hide the abdominal problem from the press and has hardly been talking himself up: “I am a little bit tired to talk about injuries. I am here to try my best every day.” is the best he could manage earlier this week.
Some early weekend horse racing pointers tomorrow and a nice dose of AFL and NRL crunch time info.
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