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Miss Marielle, will you marry me?
September 8th, 2009 by adminMonday’s are not once they were. At one time they were grey, dull, and bereft of optimism. Then I took up the task of crafting Australian horse racing tips and everything changed.
The first day of the week is now defined by the weekend’s horse racing – if my shouts for the weekend have come through, Monday is not blue, it’s green with dollars and smugness.
Let’s backtrack to Friday first, when the Wyong Gold Cup kicked off the weekend at Wyong. I went with Mr Clangtastic after his trainer switched him there at short notice as the rain fell on Thursday and he came through in fine style, 3.70 third favourite with Centrebet when I pointed him out.
As a side issue, the less said about my NRL shout for the Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time on Friday, the better. Cough cough. Moving swiftly on…….
Next the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday provided the entertainment. Black Caviar was on 1.75 on Friday with Centrebet, but I urged a wad on this as she was likely to drop further. Ok, ok, so she did have one of those shaky starts of hers but she won it didn’t she? And she shrank to 1.45 with some bookmakers so no chuckling please.
Unfortunately it was a mighty tough one for her on Saturday and trainer Peter Moody has since revealed she could have sustained a injury with that dodgy start. I’m keeping my eyes on this as she looked a good shot for the Cox Plate and has already made friends with punters and hacked off the bookies with four wins in four.
There was less luck at the Makybe Diva Stakes on the same card at Flemington I’m afraid, but if I’d picked three tricky winners in a row people would be saying something was up. My shout was Heart of Dreams but outsider Vigor took the honours.
Then to the 1600m Chelmesford Stakes at Randwick – it was a tough one and O’Lonhro, the favourite, won it, with my ‘long shot’ shout Roman Emperor fifth.
But wait for it, who’s that in second? Miss Marielle, you beauty, my advice for a Friday placings bet on 6.33 with IASbet.
That’s a three out of four racing success rate for the weekend. It sounds better when I say “75 per cent”.
Tomorrow I’ll have a closer look at some of the midweek racing, and it’s about time I dipped into the tennis betting markets as the US Open hots up. Happy Monday from the Pom de Turf.
Read more »Much love for Heart of Dreams and Miss Marielle
September 5th, 2009 by adminAfter making hay with Mic Mac and Denman last weekend I can hardly wait for Saturday’s horse racing, which has no Golden Rose to whip me into a group 1 fever but does have a couple of very interesting races to make or break your morale.
I’ll get the the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington out of the way first. I say ‘out of the way’ because picking the winner is a distinctly grim task – it’s going to be Black Caviar unless there’s a gigantic upset.
The filly looks something special and has stormed to three wins in her first three starts and has been recording ‘freakish’ times. As such she’s on a recession-like 1.75 with Centrebet.
If you are quick it might actually be worth slapping a pile on this because Rostova, another promising youngster, has been scratched, according to Centrebet, and Manhattan Rain, one of the most valuable horses in Australia, is out as well after an underwhelming trial on Tuesday. Black Caviar is likely to drop further and of the other eight horses running only two are over 6.00 for a placings bet – Extra Zero at 7.50 and 51.00 for the win and Point Pain, 21.00 or a whopping 151.00 for the win.
The group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes is also at Flemington tomorrow and is much, much tighter. Typhoon Tracy is the favourite here on 2.82, followed by Predatory Pricer on 4.1 and Heart of Dreams on 5.1 – oops as I say that he’s just gone to 5.00 with Betfair so is dropping – form is strong for all three going into this one but because we’re seeing movement if I had to I’d go with Heart of Dreams now.
On to the 1600m Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick now, and O’Lonhro is the out-and-out favourite and has shrunk throughout the week to stand on 2.80 with IASbet – he has two wins and two placings from his last four and runs from barrier six. Close behind are Court Command on 4.50 and Triple Honour at 5.40, both with Betfair. This is a tricky one and I actually have a good feeling about Roman Emperor, on 12.00 with Betfair – don’t look at me like that, it’s just a ‘feeling’. Also there’s Miss Marielle on 12.00 for the win but certainly worth a little look on 6.33 for a placing with IASbet.
Wyong Gold Cup tipping is mighty close to call
September 4th, 2009 by adminThe Wyong weather means tipping fans may want to take an umbrella and a wad of cash to the Wyong Gold Cup on Friday, where the conditions make for some interesting betting.
It’s a very open field and an ideal chance to test your mettle ahead of Saturday’s Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick, which is shaping up very nicely indeed.
Among those who may like it wet at Wyong is Mr Clangtastic, at 3.70 with Centrebet, but he’s not the only one comfortable after bad weather. There’s been word on the web that Enzedex Eagle can also do well whatever happens with the climate.
Centrebet has Enzedex Eagle installed as the 3.00 favourite and Lodge the Deeds is the second favourite on 3.50 with the same bookmaker.
Yes, that’s three runners hovering between 3.00 and 3.70. Following this trio we’ve got Scarlet in at 9.00. Hence it’s a tricky one but given pretty much all his impressive stuff to date has come following wet weather if I had to I’d go with Mr Clangtastic.
If it starts to chuck it down again, please don’t be tempted by Thunder and Rain – all the way out at 151.00 with Centrebet, which is not worth the pun.
Casting the net to NRL betting now and on Friday the Bulldogs have the carrot of the minor NRL premiership if they can overcome Wests Tigers. The Tigers have rallied recently but lost last time out and so are out of the running for the finals.
It’s hard to see the Bulldogs not making it and you can get 1.92 for the Bulldogs to be leading at half-time and full-time with Betfair. On the other hand the Tigers can really play when they feel like it and will be keen to put on a show for the fans so Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time at 6.80 with Betfair also looks good.
Tomorrow there will be a few words on the Chelmsford Stakes and plenty more on the rest of Saturday’s racing. Happy Thursday turf lovers.
Read more »Black Caviar today. The horse, not the sturgeon eggs. Saturday wasn’t that successful.
September 3rd, 2009 by adminBesides tipping who is going to win races, I’ve recently been trying to pick up on who is not going to make the grade. Unsurprisingly deciding which bets are likely to fall flat is easier, but there is at least some brainpower needed.
For example it would’ve been easy to plump for Trusting in the Golden Rose on Saturday given his previous win in the Warwick Stakes – and with many bookies he was joint second favourite on about 5.80 on Thursday and Friday. I decided to steer clear because one Warwick Stakes win does not a Golden Rose winner make and the coverage of Trusting had smelled partly of pure hype the week before. Hence I went with Denman as a safer bet.
The point I’m trying to make is it may seem risky to call an avoid on a horse who appears to be attracting plenty of attention and plaudits, but there is method to my madness.
On Saturday we have the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington and Manhattan Rain, trained by Gai Waterhouse and known as one of the most valuable horses this side of the Danube, will be appearing. Given his touted worth of $20 million you’d think he’d be a wise move for Saturday but the midweek reports suggest otherwise.
Today the press has been awash with the news he didn’t fare that well in a four-horse 800m trial on Tuesday and will have blinkers on Saturday.
“It was a bit like ‘Well, here I am’,” is how Gail Waterhouse described his performance in the Sydney Morning Herald. I know just how he feels. Anyway, early doors he may be among the favourites but this race also involves filly Black Caviar, as yet unbeaten, while Grand Harmony was the winner of Tuesday’s trial and lead all the way to win at Seymour last month.
While I’ve got your attention it’s worth taking a look at how Saturday’s result in the Golden Rose has affected Denman’s odds for the season’s main events. He is now at 17.00 for the Cox Plate with IASbet, ahead of the aforementioned Black Caviar, who is on 21.00 for the Plate – possibly worth a shot now before what could be a good performance from the filly on Saturday?
Mic Mac and Denman make it a bumper weekend
September 2nd, 2009 by adminMic Mac and Denman make it a bumper weekend
It was a bad weekend for the bookies, but a decent one for the Pom de Turf, who is starting to enjoy this tipping lark.
On Saturday anyone who took my advice on Friday of sticking a ‘reasonable wedge’ on Denman in the Golden Rose at 2.64 with Betfair will have had a heavy one, no doubt. Trouble is, now I wish I’d said ‘skipful’ instead of ‘wedge’, but that’s the way the turf cracks.
Unfortunately Phelan Ready, my advice for a slightly riskier shot, was apparently not that ready after all and came 14^th . Bombay Sling also failed to come off as an outside placings bet, ending up in seventh.
Phelan Ready later underwent a once-over from the vet but was found to be in good shape so his poor performance remains a mystery. Perhaps he reads this blog and is an Aussie Cricket fan, not wanting to miss the chance of making an Englishman look stupid after the Ashes. Or perhaps someone out there with a grudge read the tip on Friday and fed him a crate of Castlemaine. Either way, the horse will get the chance to redeem himself in the Guineas.
Thankfully the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield provided welcome respite on the same day. Mic Mac was identified as a strong safe favourite bet by yours truly on Friday thanks to that barrier four draw. He duly delivered and his odds even lengthened to 3.00 and over with some bookies before the race.
Whobegotyou, the ‘sexier’ punt for this one, ended up in second and the placings tip, Sea Battle, again let me down.
So, a strong record so far on picking up on truly likely favourites but less impressive with the placings. I shall hunker down in the lab and work on this.
Back with the cricket and the one day internationals are off the mark on Friday and the second Twenty20 is on today at Old Trafford.
‘Old Faithful’ or ‘rain’ saved England from what could’ve been a tanning in the first Twenty20 on Sunday, and I see no reason to think today will be any different. Most amusing betting odds award goes to the idea that Ravi Bopara will be the top England batsman at 4.90 with Betfair. The internal collapse of the sun is more likely. I’ll be going for 7.60 on Paul Collingwood instead.
Read more »Bombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
August 29th, 2009 by adminBombay Sling may throw us a tasty one in the Golden Rose
There’s nothing like the first group 1 horse racing betting of the season to test your mettle and the market for the Golden Rose at Rosehill is already boiling and getting hotter. This means I finally have to commit to some tipping or I’ll probably turn red and sweaty like a lobster.
To recap, much noise was made earlier in the week for youngster Trusting after he won the Warwick Stakes, and he stands at 5.80 with Betfair. However, as of Friday the same bookmaker was offering a reasonable-looking 6.40 for Phelan Ready who has shortened to 5.50 with some other bookies.
Denman remains the firm favourite at 2.64 with Betfair and is backed up by a barrier four draw. Denman won the Run to the Rose and it would be a significant surprise if he didn’t at least make the top two. A reasonable wedge might well be worthwhile on him, but go for Phelan Ready on those Betfair odds if you are after something sexier.
The real cash is likely to come from the placings, and there are some decent-looking shots hovering around the 20.00 – plus odds for the win.
This translates to 8.81 for a placings punt on Bombay Sling with IASbet, who is out at 31.00 for the win with the same bookmaker. Other placings bets don’t look nearly as worthwhile.
Got it? Good. On to the Memsie group 2 over at Caulfield now and the feel of the betting almost reflects the fact attention is not so much on the winner but on the field, as many a recent Cox Plate winner has run in the Memsie. Mic Mac is way out in front at 2.60 with IASbet and has all sorts going for him – especially the barrier four draw. El Segundo is second favourite on 4.80 but Whobegotyou looks better at 5.00. If you are feeling all brave and bolshy and the approaching smell of spring has you all confident, I like the look of Sea Battle at 15.00 with IASbet. Don’t look at me if this one falls on its face though because Mic Mac is well and truly the Mr Safe for this.
The Pom De Turf will be back on Tuesday – I’ll need Monday to recover from the commiserations or celebrations. Meanwhile enjoy the return of group 1. It promises to be a sizzling spring.
Read more »Cricket? Scotland? Never. Warner to knock up 100.
August 28th, 2009 by adminCricket? Scotland? Never. Warner to knock up 100.
For me, the concept of Scotland even thinking about playing international cricket is a slightly perverse one, despite their regular presence at the T20 World Cup. I can’t help it. It’s just so British and silly.
Apparently the bookmakers agree with me. Betfair are offering an almost laughably paltry 1.05 for Australia to win the one day international in Edinburgh on Friday, while the home side are at 12.00.
Nonetheless the local press are taking the whole thing seriously, with the Scotsman saying on Thursday that Aussie all-rounder James Hopes is warning Scotland he and the squad are ‘desperate to make a statement’ after the Test side lost the Ashes.
The paper then helpfully points out Hopes had never been to the UK prior to the World Twenty20 attempt in June – so presumably he has never been to Scotland before and is enjoying the Edinburgh sunshine safe in the knowledge there’s almost no danger of the home side repeating England’s performance.
Hopes is presumably also basking in the novelty of a country where it rains even more regularly than England.
Although Friday’s result is all but academic it will be interesting to see how Australia warm up before taking on England in the Twenty20 on Sunday.
Of particular interest is David Warner, an opener who got 89 from 43 balls on debut against South Africa earlier this year- and who could be a good bet to blast straight to a hundred on Friday.
Elsewhere, back with horse racing betting, and the new whip rules issue is already clutching at the edges of Saturday’s Golden Rose. However you feel about this one welfare-wise you could be shuffling in your seat if you’ve got money on Porsched, currently 34.00 with IASbet.
Jockey Peter Robl has had to get nice with the stewards after comments were attributed to him in a newspaper claiming he would hit the horse more than the rules allowed – if it was the difference between winning and losing.
He has said he was misquoted, but as a result plenty of eyes will be on his whip on Saturday. Could this affect him, perhaps even subconsciously? I’ll let you be the judge of that one.
Read more »Memsie promises to give season clues
August 27th, 2009 by adminAttention will rightly be focused on the Golden Rose on Saturday but the hardcore punters among us, including the Pom de Turf, will also have keen eyes on the Memsie stakes over at Caulfield on Saturday.
The attraction lies in the fact horses who have run in the Memsie have often gone on to win the Cox Plate – although it’s not necessarily the winner who goes on to victory in the big one at Moonee Valley later in the season.
Some basics for the Memsie morons out there – it’s a group 2 weight-for-age race over 1400m and there are usually plenty of glamorous names preparing not just for the Plate but also for the Melbourne Cup – who are often not yet as fit as less well-known runners who tend to do quite well.
El Segundo is running on Saturday having already won it once in 2006 and is apparently not showing his age going into a shot at a second.
After the 2006 victory he went on to win the Underwood Stakes and got himself placings in the Caulfield Stakes and Cox Plate later in the same campaign.
So besides him, who else could be worth a look on Saturday? Sea Battle is being ridden Craig Williams, who piloted Miss Finland to victory in this one in 2007, but Sea Battle hasn’t raced since November.
Whobegotyou could be a better shout – he’s the early Cox Plate favourite and did well when resuming to seal second in the recent Liston Stakes – which is probably a better indicator than the glittering historical form but less inspiring early season patter of other familiar names lining up on Saturday. More on this one later in the week.
Back to the Golden Rose build up-now and Denman currently remains the firm favourite at 2.75 with Centrebet. My interest is, however, drifting towards Bombay Sling, at 21.00 with Centrebet, and Porsched, who is currently looking a decent placings bet at 7.50. Interestingly, Centrebet also has outsider Magic Model at 81.00 down from 101.00 earlier in the week, so worth keeping an eye on going into Thursday/Friday.
Read more »Sainthood threatens to send me to punting hell
August 26th, 2009 by adminSainthood threatens to send me to punting hell
As it happens Tuesday’s racing at Randwick on the Kensington track was the day of truth for Glowlamp after all.
She grew to 2.25 from around 1.85 to ditch her unlucky tag in fine style in the 1100m Intergaze Maiden Plate.
On the same card I made a noise on Monday for Sainthood in the 1550m. This was not so holy and finished a disappointing third with outsider Kossack coming home and wrecking all chances of canonisation in my eyes.
So far my success rate is two in four solid tips – so some of you are already hoping I burn in hell.
That’s just how it goes – and there’s a shot at redemption this coming weekend.
On Saturday we have a mouth-watering 1400m Golden Rose appearing at Rosehill and the build-up has already started in earnest. The race has been building a reputation as a premium race for three-year-olds.
Trusting is the early hype-magnet for the $1 million event after the colt picked up a surprise win in the Warwick Stakes on Saturday and is already at third favourite for Saturday with Centrebet on 5.00.
Denman is the current favourite thanks to a favourable gate four and is at 2.80 with the same bookmaker.
Phelan Ready has also been attracting early attention and is currently at 6.00 with Centrebet but is a more appealing 7.50 with IASbet.
The Mikado is at 26.00 with IASbet today having firmed up to around 17.00 with some other online horse racing betting markets so now could be a good time to get something on this one if you are in the mood for a long shot.
Look carefully and hovering down the list at number 12 is Headway, standing at 11.00 with Centrebet but at 9.00 with IASbet. Headway has three wins in the last six, plus two placings, so is an interesting prospect considering Phelan Ready has two wins and two placings in the last six.
My ear is to the ground and I’m holding off on a call for the winner at the moment. Denman’s gate draw means the odds are mighty short and an each way could be your best chance of picking up a wedge. I shall sit on my rock and go ‘ommmmm’ quietly until later in the week. Buddhism is now more my thing after the embarrassing failure of Sainthood on Tuesday. Have faith turf lovers.
Read more »Failure for the Aussies – but success for our cricket betting tip
August 25th, 2009 by adminFailure for the Aussies – but success for our cricket betting tip
It’s Monday and the dust has settled – both on the Oval cricket pitch and at Randwick and Moonee Valley, with the former racecourse being a bit of a punter’s graveyard over the weekend.
I hold my hands up to the Voice Commander shout in the 1400m Warwick Stakes – he was nowhere to be seen and my dollars are similarly conspicuous by their absence after Trusting came in, having stood at around 9.00 with many bookies.
Moonee Valley thankfully took the edge off this as Secret Flyer got us the win in the BC3 Future Stars – anyone who paid attention and slapped a wedge on this one at 2.70 with Centrebet on Friday will be breathing a very happy sigh of relief.
The ‘Pom’ part of ‘Pom de Turf’ is especially smug about the Ashes for more reasons than should be mentioned here. I won’t bore you with the sledging but will instead point to the floppy blonde head of English pace bowler Stuart Broad – not to laugh, but to hail his five wicket haul which would have netted you some cash if you took Friday’s advice of a punt on a bowler to take five wickets in an innings with Betfair at 2.02.
You all fancied Ben Hilfenhaus for this on Saturday didn’t you? Well you won cash anyway so don’t look quite so down. Remember what happened the last time England went to Australia to defend the urn and you should cheer up smartly.
We have midweek racing at Randwick on the Kensington track on Tuesday and the 1100m Intergaze Maiden Plate is a potential nightmare – there are a number of decent horses dropping down to midweek and although there’s plenty of interest on Glowlamp at 1.85 with Centrebet I’ve got a bad feeling about this one with decent shouts Purdey and Schlager hovering ominously behind.
Instead the Chris Munce – ridden Sainthood is looking reasonable in the 1550m handicap on the same card – Betfair will give you 3.00 for this.
Elsewhere we can expect a massive week in both AFL and NRL betting – watch this space for tips as the battle for the top eight heats up.
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