Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Australia too short at the odds for Ashes 5th test in Sydney
December 30th, 2010 by adminThe Aussies crumbled in Melbourne and are truly awful value at $3.20 to win at the SCG. Enlgand will not want to lost this game, back the double chance for the Poms and the draw
Read more »Aussie bookies should learn the art of bookmaking
April 28th, 2010 by adminThe recent “scandal” surrounding the Melbourne Storm breaching the NRL salary cap has highlighted the double standards existing amongst the Aussie bookmaking fraternity.
Bookies are crying foul that some punters managed to get a few quid at $250 for The Storm to take the wooden spoon, and that they used “insider information” to profit. And this is so unfair on the blokes with the satchels. How very dare a few intrepid punters do this!! It’s a disgrace.
Well come on bookies – lets take a look at the basic model of bookmaking. You offer prices based on the knowledge you have, you build in a margin, and then you try and “sell” betting opportunities to punters. Correct?
In doing this, you employ traders and odds compliers who have the greatest skill and judgement. And you trust them to beat the punters – which most of the time they do.
If a sports team has an injury worry, you know before punters. If a horse is well fancied for a race, you know before anyone else. And if a horse is “unfancied”, you know first and extend the price accordingly to tempt more bets. All of this is inside knowledge, but is an accepted part of the Bookies v Punters battle. Which is why we all love it.
So when, once in a blue moon, you are caught napping, please don’t complain. It is pitiful. Just hold your hands up and pay out. It’s good PR for you, and punters will come back and return their profits to you, with interest.
Read more »Australia need to learn to live without Cahill to progress in South Africa
March 25th, 2010 by adminSportsbet.com.au have Tim Cahill priced up as the 4.35 favourite to be the top Aussie goalscorer in South Africa, which is probably good value is you think the Aussies will score. The recent Socceroos record in front of goal has been awful, even with Cahill playing. Kewell is next best at 5.00. In truth, he might as well be 50.00. Josh Kennedy at 5.00 and Scott McDonald at 5.50 is fair enough. Emerton (6.00) and Bresciano are the only other 2 quoted.
So it comes down to this. Either the Cahill bet is a stromer at 4.35. Or we need to back “no Australian goalscorer”. Is there a market available? Watch this space
Read more »Kubrick and Arthur C Clarke….??
December 9th, 2009 by adminIn horse racing, it’s always difficult to look ahead and find the names of race runners that might come in with a big pay off some way down the line.
However, I’m going to stick my neck out and just help you to spot a few (no more) of the names that may well bring you a dollar or two in the year that will be called 2010.
Perhaps fitting for a year that still has overtones of Kubrick and Arthur C Clarke, Spacecraft is a horse that has something to prove.
He’s got a tremendous head-down style when he races, which means he’s full of energy that may well yet turn into winning form.
Anyone who needs a good punt will do well to look out for this horse, and trainer Danny O’Brien is doing a great job at keeping him hungry.
Then there is Zauberin.
She’s a good strong mare, and can handle the longer distances.
See her name on a lengthy run and she is most definitely good for a few.
She won at Moonee back in October and that was a fair jog that she managed at a good gallop.
Still with a lot to prove, she’s well worth watching if you ever see any longer races with her name in the pick.
And then there is Marconi.
A horse you may never have heard of, but definitely one to consider in the New Year.
As fast as you like and consistent to boot, Marconi is the son of Lago Delight (who you may have heard of).
He is a real stormer when coming out of the gates, and definitely one to watch.
So there we are with three horses that may well bring home the proverbial next year.
Just some names to watch out for when you look at the line-ups
Read more »England will – possibly – host the World Cup, but can’t win it next year
November 28th, 2009 by adminEnglan’s national side have grand hopes of lifting the World Cup next
year- but officials are busy battling to secure the country the hosting
of the tournament in 2018. Of late they have even had to rely on foreign
help.
Arsene Wenger, who is French, has revealed that he would be happy to be
an ambassador for the English bid to be the country to host the World
Cup, and he thinks it is unfair that Germany has hosted it twice.
At his Friday press conference, Wenger told the press corps: “I am a big
supporter of the England bid for the World Cup in 2018. If I can help
them, I would be very happy.”
This is all well and good, but Wenger then went on to talk about how
England gave the game of football to the world, and it is for this
reason that the country should be allowed to hold the World Cup. He even
said that it is not ‘normal’ for a country that gave this sport to be
denied hosting the Cup.
However, I think he is forgetting one thing. England may have given the
sport to the world, but, and if you will forgive my expression here, the
rest of the world have picked up the ball and ran with it.
England has had some decent shots at glory in the last ten years, but
every time they have somehow managed to fudge it. And while the country
– as Arsene Wenger quite rightly pointed out – may have ‘the
infrastructure, the stadiums, the passion’ to manage a world class
tournament, it still won’t win it.
As such on the field the side are also deceptive – their odds of 8.40
third favourites for next year’s tournament are odd, given that the
Netherlands qualified in similarly impressive style but are out at 17.00.
In my opinion, England are yet to prove that they are part of the world
stage and can justify hosting it. Causing such a fuss over whether or
not they can host it is rather like crying because the bigger, stronger
boys aren’t coming round to your house to play.
Federer to fade?
November 28th, 2009 by adminMany years ago I wandered over to SW19 during a very hot English summer, to watch what would turn out to be the very last tennis match at Wimbledon for one Pete Sampras.
He came out onto No 2 court, looking jaded and perhaps ever so slightly confused. Why was he here, on the ‘graveyard’ court, a world champion?
He lost the match, and pretty soon after retired. Sampras was once a safe bet, someone you could lay a bit of cash down on and expect a nice little earner. He was a big gun. The equivalent of a steady racehorse that had a few years in him and then went quietly off into the wings.
Now we have Federer. Roger is a supreme tennis player. Some say he is the best ever, and they have a point. He’s blasting Sampras’ form out of the water anyway.
Tennis is a great sport to lay money down on, because you have the old-fashioned, prolonged drama of watching two people battle it out, with little human error or other unpredictability affecting the result. You study form, and bet accordingly.
Yet it is arguable that the game is becoming quite safe. Let us take a case from the past to illustrate this.
Remember Goran Ivanisevic? This player caused quite a stir a few years ago when he won Wimbledon from out of nowhere and the punters had a very big day.
Could it happen today? Well, Roger has just regained his ranking crown, you could have bet on that. Or you could bet on him winning his next ATP match in London. Betfair have him at 1.35 for that in their online tennis betting market.
Seems it is a one horse race at the moment, the real winners among us can only wait and see if we can spot the signs of Federer fading, and then bet the other way.
However, can’t see him gracing No 2 court just yet, can you?
Two runners stand out in Winterbottom betting
November 25th, 2009 by adminSo The Winterbottom Stakes are nearly here, and the occasion is trying its best to be anything but a one (or two) horse race.
The race is a huge $500,000 affair, not bad for a 1200m run. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but pundits are swearing blind there are two runners in the big one that could well be strolling past the line with ease.
The jockey from Melbourne, Nash Rawiller, is going to be on Lucky Secret. And the good news for him is that he has been riding the same horse for his last three wins. However, there is another secret at The Winterbottom, namely Waratah’s Secret, another great little runner, to be run by Paul Harvey, who is no slouch by any means.
Waratah’s secret is a three year old, and one that has been totally spruced up energy wise by the trainer, one David Harrison. Harrison must be aiming high. It’s all gearing up to be a great race, but what about the results? What’s the score on this?
As regards Waratah’s Secret, IASBet has the young horse on at 4.40, which is hardly something to ignore. So everyone likes the Secrets, but some bookies are tipping it the other way, so we’ll give you more bang for your buck here, and name a couple of good options for you to consider come race day.
Apache Cat has been getting some favourable press recently. While Neil Evans from Centrebet names Danny Beau as a possible player. He’s on at 8.0.
You got all of that? I know, none the wiser. But give it a go. Maybe a few safe bets will involve the spilling of some Secrets…
Read more »Who will pinch the Winterbottom?
November 22nd, 2009 by adminIt’s interesting seeing which races are available when in the online betting markets – for example, the Melbourne Cup was up and running wager-wise months before the actual event took place, much as you would expect.
Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.
Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.
When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.
All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.
A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.
Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.
In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.
Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.
Read more »Odds for Railway Stakes raiders could be deceptive
November 20th, 2009 by adminWelcome to Friday. Hello, fans of the Irish soccer team. Remember what I was saying earlier in the week about so much being at stake? Painfully demonstrated by Thierry Henry’s handball – but at least if you slapped some cash on under 1.5 goals going in during normal time you had something to take the edge off. For the record, if FIFA and France agree to replay the game, I’ll eat my South Africa 2010 wall chart.
Back to the racing, and much of the attention has been on the Railway Stakes at Ascot. The track press have had little else of this level to talk about since Melbourne Cup day, so it’s not surprising I’ve now got Saturday’s $1 million race flashing before my eyes in a thousand hypey headlines.
The line-up is a mixture of Perth local runners and eastern chances, some of whom will be lining up on Saturday chiefly because they were out of luck in Sydney and Melbourne over the spring.
Among them is the week-long favourite Gold Salute, on 3.20 with IASbet, having firmed from 4.00. This isn’t great value, with plenty of runners hovering highly ominously around the 9.00 to 14.00 mark. It’s worth remembering that while in the past many horses have headed west for this race with big billings and small odds, many of them have failed.
Besides this, any one of All American, Ortensia and Grand Nirvana are in with a very strong shout indeed, and if Sniper’s Bullet can negotiate the barrier 14 draw, he’ll be a dangerous one too.
All this doesn’t help I know, but there is value for Largo Lad, at 19.00, dropping from 26.00 with IASbet, and good at the mile. Megatic at 17.00 with the same bookmaker looks reasonable.
It’s a tricky one this, but if you cast your eyes to race 2 on the card for Ascot on Saturday you will find the Carlton Mid Handicap – Thorn Dancer is well fancied here and is a paltry 1.80 with IASbet – if you can find better than that this could be a good safety net.
Back on Sunday, turf’s up folks.
Read more »World Cup play-off betting and Railway Stakes update
November 18th, 2009 by adminA good overview of how you might play the World cup play-off betting tonight before I do a little update on the Railway Stakes, the main racing event for Saturday at Ascot.
By 11am AEDT we will know for sure which teams will be joining the likes of Australia and New Zealand in South Africa next year and which sides face another four-year wait before they have the chance to perform on soccer’s biggest stage.
Today’s World Cup play-off second legs will define the careers of some players – Portugal have been to the World Cup on numerous occasions, but have never won it. Go out against Bosnia tonight and playmaker Deco, at 32 years of age, can probably kiss goodbye any chance of winning the most famous prize in sport.
Elvir Rahimic, the Bosnian midfielder, is 33 and his team have never made the World Cup before – if his side fail to get the required result he too faces the prospect of never playing in a World Cup.
As such the pattern of these second legs can be hard to predict because so much is at stake. Bosnia will be desperate not to concede a potentially decisive away goal, but on the other hand, have to score at some point.
In Paris, where France, leading 1-0 from the first leg, take on Ireland, the situation is a little clearer. They don’t have to score, Ireland do, and are likely to build the game from the back.
Neither team is in the finest attacking form and as such a bet on a scoreline involving less than 1.5 goals looks not too bad with Betfair’s World Cup betting market, at 3.15. Value for wins for the likes of France is likely to be poor, so, as with the first legs, scorelines and over/under goal totals could be the way to go.
Over to the Railway Stakes now, where a pot of $1 million is up for grabs at Ascot on Saturday. First of all, Kasabian, a local chance, is out of the race having developed swelling in a foreleg. Gold Salute is still on top in the betting with All American not a million miles away.
I’m afraid outside the top two or three we are seeing a complicated market at the moment, with some runners spread at around 8.00 to 10.00 and a heap on around 16.00. This could make a placings shout very tricky. More on this on Friday. In the meantime, marvel at the sound of millions of hearts breaking as the World Cup qualification process finally comes to an end.
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