Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Kidnapped nabs me a weekend sweetener
November 16th, 2009 by adminA dodgy deflection denied me a 0-0 scoreline and a correct prediction for the Ireland – France World Cup play-off on Saturday, and as such I feel as green at the gills as the Irish squad, who played well throughout and even fashioned the better chances.
Over in Russia a surprise Slovenia goal edged out my shout for a 2-0 home win, which confounded my disappointment from the Sandown Classic, which was won by Zipping for the third time in a row – quite an achievement and I won’t begrudge him that one. For the record, my shout Master O’Reilly was third behind Purple.
Thankfully my poor luck ended with a win for Kidnapped in the Sandown Guineas. Peter Snowden’s promising youngster pulled off a classy performance and made the bookies weep – you could get 2.50 when I tipped him and he shrunk to around 2.10 before the race.
Now for some more news on the Railway Stakes – Saturday’s $1 million highlight and quite simply the biggest race in Australia since the Melbourne action.
At this stage we’re still not sure whether Ortensia, likely to be a serious contender, is even going to appear. We should find out tomorrow when jockey Craig Williams takes her for a run round Ascot in the morning – the result of this will decide whether or not she turns up in the Railway or is held for the group 2 Winterbottom Stakes the week after.
Elsewhere, the profile of the race is to be boosted by the presence of three high-profile jockeys who will be taking mounts in the run – Damien Oliver, Nash Rawiller and William Pike.
Pike is a local Perth favourite, while Oliver hails from the area but plies his usual trade in Melbourne. Rawiller is being released by the Gai Waterhouse stable and will be on Sniper’s Bullet on Saturday.
Most betting markets are yet to open for the Railway, but midweek will be spiced up by the presence of the second leg of the World Cup play-offs. Can Ireland pinch a win in Paris? Sacre bleu.
Read more »World cup odds favour correct score bets
November 14th, 2009 by adminAlthough nothing can be decided for certain today, the teams involved in the first legs of the World Cup qualification play-offs can virtually seal their seats to South Africa.
Here’s the deal – the teams playing today all came second in their qualifying groups and so missed out on an automatic pass to the biggest show on earth – instead they have been drawn against each other to play two legs home and away, with the winners of each tie going through and the losers staying at home next summer.
Today the first legs will be played, before the second legs come around on Wednesday, with away goals counting double.
For example, today Ukraine host Greece, and should the away side pull off a 2-2 draw, then draw 1-1 with Ukraine on their home turf next Wednesday, they are through by virtue of the extra away goal in the first leg. Got it? Good. Therefore whoever can pull of a handsome win today is in a mighty fine spot.
Let’s firstly turn to Russia against Slovenia in Moscow, with the home side unlucky to have to go through a play-off at all after narrowly finishing second to Germany in their group. Guus Hiddink’s side can call on the creativity and goal power of midfielder Andrey Arshavin, and have pedigree given their strong performance at Euro 2008. As such they look good for a 2-0 win at 6.80 with Betfair.
Also on Saturday we have Ireland hosting two-times champions France. Although France are the favourites to go through over all, Ireland pulled off two impressive draws against current world champions Italy in their group. In fact Ireland were beating Italy 1-0 until a last-minute Italian equaliser in their final group match, so should not be underestimated.
This is over two legs though and I feel France can mount a decent enough defence, however, in general they have not played well throughout qualification and haven’t exactly been free-scoring. A 0-0 at 8.00 with Betfair therefore looks good for this one. More next week when the deciding legs come around.
Read more »Sandown Classic betting looks a tricky task
November 13th, 2009 by adminI’ve been waiting all week for the online horse racing betting markets for the Sandown Classic to open, and now they have, I almost wish they’d stayed shut.
Scenic Shot has emerged as a 3.50 favourite with IASbet, but behind this horse the field is tighter than a duck’s backside – four horses are between around 5.00 and 9.00, while there are some strong enough contenders at around the 11.00 to 12.00 mark.
Bearing that in mind, I had a nose round for value for Scenic Shot and found not much. Betfair is offering 3.80, which is as good as you’re going to get at the moment. Delving into the background of stayer Scenic Shot, the price seems based on a win in the Mackinnon Stakes, although it’s worth bearing in mind this was an easy victory for him.
Master O’Reilly at 5.00 with IASbet is interesting – the horse hasn’t won for two years but did well to come fourth in the Melbourne Cup and the pace on Saturday could dictate how he does. Lighting could strike three times with Zipping, who has won this race twice before, but a hat-trick is a bit too much for my probability meter to bear.
A word on the Sandown Guineas too, which is on the card just before the classic – here we have a less tempestuous field and Kidnapped is the firm favourite. 2.50 at Betfair is the best price I could find, but this is much more secure than the 3.00 – odd you’ll get for Scenic Shot in the Classic in my opinion.
Therefore I’d be inclined to lean towards Kidnapped in the Guineas and a smaller wedge on Master O’Reilly – he does look to be in very good shape, and at the end of the day, he’s got to win a bloody race sometime. This could finally be it after a dry run which stretches back to a win in the Caulfield Cup win in 2007.
On Saturday I’ll be concentrating on the soccer again – there’s a wealth of World Cup qualifying play-off games, and some interesting betting. Turf’s up.
Read more »Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far
November 10th, 2009 by adminIt seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.
As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.
See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.
August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)
September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60
October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00
November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50
Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.
This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.
Read more »A group 1 drought – but plenty of betting distractions
November 8th, 2009 by adminA glimpse over my Aussie listed racing calendar makes for rather stark reading on this lazy Sunday – group 1 silks will not be fluttering in the wind again until January.
According to my list, the next group 1 run is the Lightning Stakes over 1000m at Flemington on January 30. After the feast, so must come the famine – and by god we have eaten well over the last few weeks.
There are plenty of other summer tasters to whet the appetite – next Saturday there’s a meeting at Sandown with a pair of group 2 races – the Sandown Classic and the Sandown Guineas.
To distract us we also have the Melbourne Cup. No, not last Tuesday, but Melbourne Cup 2010 – the build-up to which has already begun. No, seriously, it has – officially, with Victoria Racing Club pretty much releasing a statement to this effect and promising an extra $500,000 in prize money for next year’s event. The Queen may even make an appearance in 2010 as it’ll be the 150th anniversary of the race that stops a nation. Maybe she can hitch a lift on the Quantas with me.
Aside from the turf of the track I’m also quite partial to the turf of a football pitch – that’s proper football or ‘soccer’ to you.
Australia are already through to next year’s World Cup, although plenty more have not been so lucky. A number of high-profile teams are facing the relative humiliation of a two-legged play-off after a stuttering qualification campaign, and France are one of them.
The 1998 winners have to play Ireland over two ties, with away goals counting double and the first match in Dublin next Saturday. On paper it looks like a no-brainer – France have also won two European Championships and two Confederations Cups, whereas Ireland have won precisely nothing and weren’t even in the last World Cup in 2006.
However, Ireland were immensely unlucky not to qualify direct – they were unbeaten in their group but ended up second to Italy, who are the defending champions. En route to their second place Ireland got a 2-2 draw in Italy and were winning in their home fixture 1-0 against the likes of Buffon and Pirlo before a last-minute equaliser robbed them of a famous win.
France, on the other hand, stuttered during qualification and are arguably lucky to even be in the play-offs. A bet on a draw in Dublin next Saturday looks good at 3.15 with Betfair.
Read more »Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week
November 6th, 2009 by adminFlemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?
The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.
Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.
I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.
As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.
Read more »Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form
November 4th, 2009 by adminAs Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.
The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.
For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.
I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.
For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.
Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.
There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.
Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.
Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.
Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.
Read more »The ‘battle with Bart’ dominates Melbourne Cup betting
November 2nd, 2009 by adminTwo prevailing themes are now apparent as we enter the final hours before the biggest horse racing event of the season.
Firstly, the media build-up and the betting are being dominated by Bart Cummings – he who has trained 12 Melbourne Cup winners and dominated group 1 events this season.
Secondly, we have the emergence of five or six horses from the rest of the field. It’s a clear gap, with half a dozen runners all over the tipping columns and a distinct lack of talk about the other 18 runners in the field.
Pull up a chair, allow me to re-fill my pipe and I’ll try to take us through both of these issues before we hopefully come out with a good overview of what will happen at Flemington on Tuesday.
Firstly, dear Bart has three runners in the field and is coming in off the back of a spring where he has trained winners left, right and centre. As of Monday evening his three chances, Viewed, Allez Wonder and Roman Emperor, were the 4.80 favourite, a 31.00 shot and 8.50 third favourite respectively with Sportsbet.
Such is the anxiety over the presence of Cummings’ trio of chances that Sportsbet has developed the ‘Second Cummings’ offer – whereby if a Bart Cummings horse wins and your horse comes second you get your money back – with a $100 maximum refund.
While Allez Wonder will have to up her game considerably to pull out a win, Viewed and Roman Emperor are both genuinely likely to be there or thereabouts. As such a modest insurance wager for Viewed might be a good idea as value is likely to be poor at this stage – while Roman Emperor is looking good for something heavier at 9.60 with Betfair.
So is all the talk about Bart a little over the top? Not when you consider Viewed has already won the Caulfield Cup this year. And the Melbourne Cup last year. However, Bart’s last win in the Cup was 10 years ago in 1999 with Rogan Josh.
Still, even if you fancy Alcopop at 6.00 with Betfair, or Shocking on 11.00, do you feel comfortable not backing Bart? I don’t and will be insuring accordingly.
Outside of aforementioned Roman Emperor, Viewed, Alcopop, Shocking and Daffodil at 16.00, the field, in my view, is of limited quality. However, there are some very interesting placings bets of decent value. Jockey Glen Boss has won this race three times in a row from 2003 to 2005 on Makybe Diva and is piloting Changing of the Guard at 7.40 for the placings with Betfair. Elsewhere there’s 12.50 for promising Godolphin horse Crime Scene. And if you’ve not quite had enough of Bart, Allez Wonder is 9.80 to make the placings.
It all comes down to this. A simple battle with Bart. Turf’s up.
Read more »The Melbourne Cup by numbers
November 1st, 2009 by adminI’m reaching for the stats book again this Sunday. Granted the horse racing records at Racing and Sports don’t make for such a light piece of reading but I’ve always felt numbers can provide you with some clarity where there otherwise seems to be none.
Take 13 for example. Unlucky for some, but possibly not for Bart Cummings. The master trainer has trained 12 winners of the Melbourne Cup and is going for 13 on Tuesday. With the form he is in, do you dare bet against him? He could have six runners in Flemington’s big one, with three guaranteed a place. That’s what’s known as ‘hedging your bets’ and the great granddad of Aussie racing has Viewed in the race, a 5.50 shot with IASbet and second favourite with this bookmaker. Beware the Bartman.
Next we move to 16. The letter T has been the first letter of a Melbourne Cup winner 16 times – the most common winner’s initial. This year we have Think Money. Odds: 301.00 with IASbet. Think I’ll leave that one.
Also 1,000,000 – the amount in dollars Australian media mogul Kerry Packer supposedly had on the horse Might and Power at about 6.00 when it won in 1997. Unless you are also a ludicrously wealthy media mogul, I advise you not to bet this much on Tuesday.
Then to 68 – the weight in Kilos of the heaviest-weighted Melbourne Cup winner – Phar Lap in 1931. By comparison current favourites Viewed and Efficient are packing 58kg on Tuesday – ten kilos less.
What about 45,375? – the amount in dollars connections had to stump up yesterday by way of a final acceptance fee for the race. That’s for each horse by the way. Think training/ownership looks easy? Who cares because it’s bloody expensive.
Finally we have 78. This is the number of tears I’ll cry and the number of brandy shots I’ll sink if I don’t manage to tip at least something on Tuesday. It’s also the predicted number of abusive emails I’ll get if my current fancy Kirklees doesn’t make the placings. Overall I feel I have had a respectable spring so far. Here’s hoping Bart Cummings doesn’t pap all over it this week. Until Tuesday morning. Don’t forget to bunk off work, turf fans.
Read more »Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown
October 30th, 2009 by adminBarely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.
One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.
That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.
More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.
For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.
So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.
Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.
Read more »- 2023
- 2022
- - June
- 2018
- 2017
- 2016
- 2015
- 2014
- 2013
- 2012
- 2011
- 2010
- 2009
- 2000