Figures favour Kirklees in Caulfield Cup chaos
October 16th, 2009 by adminThere’s little hope of a calmer sea for the Caulfield Cup betting markets on this edgy Thursday afternoon – if anything they’ve become more unstable overnight.
To re-cap, first of all the former favourite for Saturday’s big race, Speed Gifted, was instead nudged to the Cox Plate by his connections. Then Maldivian, another big contender pulled up injured and will play no further part in the spring.
Predatory Pricer briefly took up the baton of favourite on Tuesday before the barrier draw scattered the gathering punters again, dumping some of the big contenders out wide.
Today IASbet has Daffdodil and Cima de Triomphe as the joint favourites on odds of 8.00, with Predatory Pricer, set back somewhat by his barrier 16 draw, on 8.50. Next comes Kiklees at 9.00.
If this is how it stays until Saturday, I’ll eat my hip flask. Pretty much every market is awash with blinking up and down arrows so every time I log on I think I’m seeing Christmas lights. Alas, it’s just a set of flashing icons which could spell danger for Saturday.
In search of some clarity, I’m delving into the stats. Both Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees have been attracting plenty of attention thanks to their barrier draws of 11 and seven. Kirklees, a Godolphin star, should not overly struggle with the 2400m on Saturday if recent results are to be believed.
He won the September Stakes at this distance on September 5 and all his three races of the summer were over 2000m. However, he’s been piloted by Frankie Dettori for his last seven wins on the bounce but is partnered with Kerrin McEvoy on Saturday as Dettori is down to ride at Newmarket in the UK on Saturday. McEvoy has been studying videos of Kirklees and has described him as looking “straightforward”. How Kirklees feels about McEvoy is anyone’s guess though, and its debatable whether or not the change of rider will have an effect.
Turning to Cima De Triomphe, the Luca Cumani-trained stayer has also seen plenty of 2000m-plus racing but hasn’t won since May 28, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. His last effort at this precise distance saw him 9th from 16 in the Qatar Prix DE L’Arc De Triomph, which was just over a year ago.
The more recent figures are therefore certainly pointing to Kirklees, who is on odds of 7.50 with Centrebet, but looks better at 9.00 with Betfair. There’s your answer, if there is such a thing to this ongoing conundrum.
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