Posts Tagged ‘Australian Horse Racing’
Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week
November 6th, 2009 by adminFlemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?
The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.
Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.
I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.
As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.
Read more »Crime Scene continues my impressive placings form
November 4th, 2009 by adminAs Crime Scene surged out ahead of the pack on Tuesday I could almost feel the gods whispering on my shoulder.
The 2009 Melbourne Cup, for all the pre-race claims of a relatively weak field, stirred the hearts of even the most hardened punters as Bart Cummings’ bid for a lucky 13th Cup was shot down in flames.
For about 50 metres it looked like British-based Crime Scene would steal the show. A pom. A tea-slurper. A limey. One of my very own.
I knew better though – over the course of the season I’ve been patchy at best when it comes to picking the winners but I’m frankly proud of my record when it comes to the placings.
For Crime Scene to win, the natural order would have had to be broken. My placings shouts are always coming second – when I tipped Crime Scene for a top three finish on Monday at 12.50 a friend of mine in Sydney chuckled and announced his money was on Alcopop. Clearly he doesn’t read this blog.
Manhattan Rain in the Cox Plate and Roman Emperor in the Caulfield Cup have so far showed there is method to my placings madness, which was why I was the least surprised of all when Crime Scene came storming through, got caught by Shocking, and settled into second. It was written in the wind. To complete the usual form, my winner tips of Viewed and Roman Emperor were nowhere to be seen.
There isn’t much which can knock me off my flawed high horse now, but no doubt the Crown Oaks and Emirates Stakes will do their best.
Betting for Thursday’s Crown Oaks at Flemington is being dominated by Bart Cummings again. His filly Faint Perfume is the favourite on the slightly ludicrous price of 1.65 with many bookmakers. Some may feel the big man’s luck is out after his trio of horses failed to win the cup on Tuesday, but everything here suggests only a massive shock can stand in the way of Faint Perfume. Value will be the problem and a clutch of horses sub-16.00 means even placings prices are not the best for those in with a shout.
Looking ahead to the finale of the Emirates Stakes on Saturday, and Bart is there again with Cox Plate winner So You Think likely to feature – most online horse racing markets aren’t open yet so I’ll come back to this on Friday.
Until then, enjoy the Crown Oaks and spend those Melbourne Cup winnings wisely. If you came away with a loss, don’t worry, the carnival is nearly over.
Read more »The ‘battle with Bart’ dominates Melbourne Cup betting
November 2nd, 2009 by adminTwo prevailing themes are now apparent as we enter the final hours before the biggest horse racing event of the season.
Firstly, the media build-up and the betting are being dominated by Bart Cummings – he who has trained 12 Melbourne Cup winners and dominated group 1 events this season.
Secondly, we have the emergence of five or six horses from the rest of the field. It’s a clear gap, with half a dozen runners all over the tipping columns and a distinct lack of talk about the other 18 runners in the field.
Pull up a chair, allow me to re-fill my pipe and I’ll try to take us through both of these issues before we hopefully come out with a good overview of what will happen at Flemington on Tuesday.
Firstly, dear Bart has three runners in the field and is coming in off the back of a spring where he has trained winners left, right and centre. As of Monday evening his three chances, Viewed, Allez Wonder and Roman Emperor, were the 4.80 favourite, a 31.00 shot and 8.50 third favourite respectively with Sportsbet.
Such is the anxiety over the presence of Cummings’ trio of chances that Sportsbet has developed the ‘Second Cummings’ offer – whereby if a Bart Cummings horse wins and your horse comes second you get your money back – with a $100 maximum refund.
While Allez Wonder will have to up her game considerably to pull out a win, Viewed and Roman Emperor are both genuinely likely to be there or thereabouts. As such a modest insurance wager for Viewed might be a good idea as value is likely to be poor at this stage – while Roman Emperor is looking good for something heavier at 9.60 with Betfair.
So is all the talk about Bart a little over the top? Not when you consider Viewed has already won the Caulfield Cup this year. And the Melbourne Cup last year. However, Bart’s last win in the Cup was 10 years ago in 1999 with Rogan Josh.
Still, even if you fancy Alcopop at 6.00 with Betfair, or Shocking on 11.00, do you feel comfortable not backing Bart? I don’t and will be insuring accordingly.
Outside of aforementioned Roman Emperor, Viewed, Alcopop, Shocking and Daffodil at 16.00, the field, in my view, is of limited quality. However, there are some very interesting placings bets of decent value. Jockey Glen Boss has won this race three times in a row from 2003 to 2005 on Makybe Diva and is piloting Changing of the Guard at 7.40 for the placings with Betfair. Elsewhere there’s 12.50 for promising Godolphin horse Crime Scene. And if you’ve not quite had enough of Bart, Allez Wonder is 9.80 to make the placings.
It all comes down to this. A simple battle with Bart. Turf’s up.
Read more »The Melbourne Cup by numbers
November 1st, 2009 by adminI’m reaching for the stats book again this Sunday. Granted the horse racing records at Racing and Sports don’t make for such a light piece of reading but I’ve always felt numbers can provide you with some clarity where there otherwise seems to be none.
Take 13 for example. Unlucky for some, but possibly not for Bart Cummings. The master trainer has trained 12 winners of the Melbourne Cup and is going for 13 on Tuesday. With the form he is in, do you dare bet against him? He could have six runners in Flemington’s big one, with three guaranteed a place. That’s what’s known as ‘hedging your bets’ and the great granddad of Aussie racing has Viewed in the race, a 5.50 shot with IASbet and second favourite with this bookmaker. Beware the Bartman.
Next we move to 16. The letter T has been the first letter of a Melbourne Cup winner 16 times – the most common winner’s initial. This year we have Think Money. Odds: 301.00 with IASbet. Think I’ll leave that one.
Also 1,000,000 – the amount in dollars Australian media mogul Kerry Packer supposedly had on the horse Might and Power at about 6.00 when it won in 1997. Unless you are also a ludicrously wealthy media mogul, I advise you not to bet this much on Tuesday.
Then to 68 – the weight in Kilos of the heaviest-weighted Melbourne Cup winner – Phar Lap in 1931. By comparison current favourites Viewed and Efficient are packing 58kg on Tuesday – ten kilos less.
What about 45,375? – the amount in dollars connections had to stump up yesterday by way of a final acceptance fee for the race. That’s for each horse by the way. Think training/ownership looks easy? Who cares because it’s bloody expensive.
Finally we have 78. This is the number of tears I’ll cry and the number of brandy shots I’ll sink if I don’t manage to tip at least something on Tuesday. It’s also the predicted number of abusive emails I’ll get if my current fancy Kirklees doesn’t make the placings. Overall I feel I have had a respectable spring so far. Here’s hoping Bart Cummings doesn’t pap all over it this week. Until Tuesday morning. Don’t forget to bunk off work, turf fans.
Read more »Melbourne Cup musings and a final Derby tipping rundown
October 30th, 2009 by adminBarely four days are left before we reach the season’s climax, and an intriguing betting market seems to suggest the 2009 Melbourne Cup will be well worth the wait.
One of the biggest stories of the last couple of days has been the condition of Efficient, the 2007 winner who had previously been a joint favourite with Alcopop. He’s now out at 10.00-plus with Betfair after it was revealed the stable is watching an old injury to his off foreleg. This might not tell the whole story – the problem has apparently been knocking about for over a year now and didn’t stop him winning the Turnbull Stakes in his last start. Therefore the drift may actually be a chance to grab a good price on a previous favourite – I’d be surprised if he didn’t run, but at the same time I’d take the drifting price without sticking my house on it.
That’s just one of a number to look out for – there’s a clutch of runners around the 20.00 mark at Betfair who I like the look of – especially Kirklees at 27.00 who has reportedly been looking very good indeed in trackwork this week.
More of course on Tuesday morning. I’ll be tracking Efficient like a hawk and making some placings shouts.
For now its back to Victoria Derby Day, where among others there is the distraction of the Myer Classic. Typhoon Tracy is the current favourite and has been all week – a small one on her might be worth it, while a placings shot on Lady Lynette looks ok, if you can find a reasonable price.
So to the main event itself, where IASbet is still listing Shamoline Warriror as the favourite at 3.20. However, Onemorenomore is now at 9.00 and falling and could be worth a go now before he possibly closes up further near the race.
Last and by no mean least, the 2500m $1.5 million group 1 run has a Pom De Turf ‘comedy dollar’ candidate. Prinsom is on a whopping 251.00 with the same bookmaker. I’ve studied his recent results carefully, and, yep, he hasn’t got a hope in hell, but it’s Derby day and anything can happen. Slightly strangely IASbet have him at a comparatively skinny 15.91 to make the placings. If I could explain that, I’d be a bookie, not a blogger. Turf’s Up.
Read more »Derby Day no-shows open up betting
October 28th, 2009 by adminI’m dusting off my best morning suit and getting ready to wow the ladies at this weekend’s Victoria Derby at Flemington. Tradition dictates that men wear morning suits and ladies wear black and white. Apparently there’s more jostling for position amongst the spectators than horses, to see who will appear in the society gossip columns.
Personally, I’d rather be studying the form of the horses than looking at who’s wearing what, so I was interested to hear that Moonee Valley Vase winner Hanks and Western Australian Bridgestone are both out of the race. This throws open the field for a number of ‘outsiders’ to be in with a chance of the prize money, none more so than Prinsom whose trainer Michael Templeton expects to see provide a ‘competitive performance’. Templeton is confident that with an uninterrupted run, Prinsom can work his way to the front of the field.
Favourites for the $1.5m race are the Norman Robinson Stakes winner Shamoline Warrior, plus Rockferry and Monaco Consul. IASbet places them at 2.80, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively, but I’ve got my eye on the spirited Onemorenomore and Gathering who have been given odds of 13.00 and 17.00. A bit of a bold shout I know, but I can sense an upset on this one.
Trainer John Thompson is concerned whether they will settle to run out the 2500m, but I’m confident that the two quality colts will perform well on Saturday. There’s also been a fair bit of discussion around Monaco Consul’s four week race gap, but his odds appear not to reflect this and trainer Mike Moroney is confident Consul is the right horse for the race.
I’m hopeful I will be successful this year, but whatever the outcome, the Victoria Derby is a fine race, steeped in tradition, dating back to 1855. It’ll be a grand day – I just hope the morning suit does me justice and my faith in Onemorenomore and Gathering pays off.
Fear not. I’ve not forgotten the Melbourne Cup. I’ll be providing a full breakdown on Friday, with the chief concern at the moment the potential of no less than six Bart Cummings runners in the big one. Watch this space.
Read more »Derby Day no-shows open up betting
October 28th, 2009 by adminI’m dusting off my best morning suit and getting ready to wow the ladies at this weekend’s Victoria Derby at Flemington. Tradition dictates that men wear morning suits and ladies wear black and white. Apparently there’s more jostling for position amongst the spectators than horses, to see who will appear in the society gossip columns.
Personally, I’d rather be studying the form of the horses than looking at who’s wearing what, so I was interested to hear that Moonee Valley Vase winner Hanks and Western Australian Bridgestone are both out of the race. This throws open the field for a number of ‘outsiders’ to be in with a chance of the prize money, none more so than Prinsom whose trainer Michael Templeton expects to see provide a ‘competitive performance’. Templeton is confident that with an uninterrupted run, Prinsom can work his way to the front of the field.
Favourites for the $1.5m race are the Norman Robinson Stakes winner Shamoline Warrior, plus Rockferry and Monaco Consul. IASbet places them at 2.80, 5.00 and 6.00 respectively, but I’ve got my eye on the spirited Onemorenomore and Gathering who have been given odds of 13.00 and 17.00. A bit of a bold shout I know, but I can sense an upset on this one.
Trainer John Thompson is concerned whether they will settle to run out the 2500m, but I’m confident that the two quality colts will perform well on Saturday. There’s also been a fair bit of discussion around Monaco Consul’s four week race gap, but his odds appear not to reflect this and trainer Mike Moroney is confident Consul is the right horse for the race.
I’m hopeful I will be successful this year, but whatever the outcome, the Victoria Derby is a fine race, steeped in tradition, dating back to 1855. It’ll be a grand day – I just hope the morning suit does me justice and my faith in Onemorenomore and Gathering pays off.
Fear not. I’ve not forgotten the Melbourne Cup. I’ll be providing a full breakdown on Friday, with the chief concern at the moment the potential of no less than six Bart Cummings runners in the big one. Watch this space.
Read more »Manhattan Rain causes a storm but who’d bet against Bart?
October 26th, 2009 by adminIt was another mixture of satisfaction and frustration on Saturday as I came good with my shout for the placings but fell down when it came to the winner. Whobegotyou failed to live up to his clear favourite tag for the Cox Plate and was well out of the placings, as So You Think, who almost no-one had talked about, led from the off to win.
But finally, at last, Manhattan Rain showed us what he’s made of and came in second. He was on 6.00 for each way with Centrebet when I recommended him earlier in the week and that almost wiped out the disappointment of ‘Whobe’, who was on a rather skinny 3.00 and even below around race time.
I’m rapidly developing a record of failing to pick out a winner but always pulling out a placer, having repeated the feat in the Caulfield Cup with Kirklees also nowhere to be seen but Roman Emperor making good my each-way shout.
Saturday’s result now also throws up an interesting problem for punters – Bart Cummings is fast becoming a ‘don’t bet against’ trainer, having been behind So You Think and Caulfield Cup winner Viewed. Que much talk of knighthoods, multiple ‘living legends’ and several ‘geniuses’. To many punters, including me, the man is frankly a menace, but credit to him.
He’s also got six horses who could appear in the Melbourne Cup, prompting Sportingbet to offer up a tempting morsel. ‘Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup?’ the bookmaker asks, and they are offering 4.50 on the winner next Tuesday being another Bart beauty. Should you feel Flemington’s gala feature is just a step too far even for him, Sportingbet will give you 1.20.
Three of his six are assured of a start – Viewed, Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder and Sportingbet has Viewed at 7.00 and Roman Emperor at 12.00 for the Melbourne Cup, while Allez Wonder is at 31.00. Current joint favourites with the same bookmaker are Efficient and Alcopop on 6.00.
We all now live in fear of being Barted into oblivion if we dare not to back one of his charges. At least there’s the distraction of the Victoria Derby on Saturday before we have to face the legend and the main event.
Read more »Whobe is home from home today
October 24th, 2009 by adminUnlike plenty of other runners in today’s Cox Plate, favourite Whobegotyou has only been hanging about getting familiar with Moonee Valley for a day or two.
While other trainers were making sure their runners were given plenty of opportunity to pound the circuit and familiarise themselves with the turf that will make and break fortunes today, Whobegotyou arrived late. On Thursday he was still at Flemington, where trainer Mark Kavanagh kept him in his regular routine.
Carelessness on the part of Kavanagh? Overconfidence? Not at all. ‘Whobe’ does not need the practice at Moonee Valley. Four times he has run here, four times he has won. This place is his second home.
His jockey is Damien Oliver, who told The Age the conditions seem to do him a favour.
“He’s one of those horses that seem really comfortable here,” Oliver has said. “The track does seem to have a bit more give than most tracks, and that’s probably receptive to him.”
So in his natural environment he will make hay and leave all in his wake. A bit like me and a free buffet.
But Oliver did have a warning for those punters who are hoping for a better day than the open and carnivorous field of the Caulfield Cup last week – watch out for El Segundo, he said, who also likes the Moonee Valley wind in his hair. The Colin Little-trained veteran has also won four times here – including the 2007 Cox Plate.
Value will be your problem today no doubt – although some people drifted away from Whobe after his barrier 10 draw, there will plenty of cash heading his way on race day and anything above 3.00 could be your best bet. Betfair has had him around 3.20 in recent days.
Shop around for those placings too – as of Friday only Manhattan Rain looked particularly sensible on 6.00 each way with some bookies, but a measly 4.00-odd is the best you may get for some of the better runners with most bookmakers. Heart Of Dreams has been a reasonably-priced second favourite all week and that shouldn’t change today, go with him if you’re looking to counterbalance a wedge on Whobe. I’m off to my own comfort of the buffet. Drinks are on me if the favourite wins.
Read more »Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine
October 23rd, 2009 by adminA brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.
William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.
Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.
Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.
Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.
Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.
A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.
Read more »- 2023
- 2022
- - June
- 2018
- 2017
- 2016
- 2015
- 2014
- 2013
- 2012
- 2011
- 2010
- 2009
- 2000