Posts Tagged ‘Australian Horse Racing’
Caulfield Cup ‘safeties’ take me on to Geelong and Moonee Valley
October 21st, 2009 by adminI’m heading into the Geelong Cup and the Cox Plate on a bit of a high, a small one, but a morale hump nonetheless.
Although there was no golden egg of a win for Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday, my shout Shamoline Warrior easily clinched the Norman Robinson Stakes having been priced at 3.80 favourite with IASbet.
Then the main event got under way. Although a fair bit of cash must’ve gone down the plug when Viewed bombed up the inside, I had the safety net of Roman Emperor, who I’d recommended as a placings shot at around 6.00 with many bookmakers. He ran a great race to finish as runner-up and on the final turn looked well in it and could even have pinched the whole thing were it not for a final kick from Viewed, who was on 13.00-odd with many bookmakers before the race.
As such I feel my backside has emerged from Caulfield Cup day pretty much intact after a bit of a tanning in certain events over the last couple of weeks.
Onwards to Wednesday’s Geelong Cup when stacks of horses need to win to get a decent boost up the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup.
Luca Cumani-trained Basaltico was quickly installed as the favourite for this one and the English galloper has shrunk to 6.50 with IASbet having hovered at 7.00 before the weekend. Also in the running is Godolphin stable horse Crime Scene.
For me at the moment this weekend’s main Moonee Valley event of the Cox Plate has one clear contender – current favourite Whobegotyou. He got me once earlier in the season when I advised against him in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes but paid me back with a victory in the Yalumba Stakes. He is the one to beat on Saturday and is on 2.95 with Centrebet, while Heart Of Dreams, likely to be his main challenger, is around 6.00. ‘Whobe’ hardly shrank after he drew barrier 10 for the race, so could dip further.
My mojo is back and so is my patchy confidence. Turf’s up.
Read more »A lazy Sunday look ahead to Geelong and the Cox Plate
October 19th, 2009 by adminOn Sunday I like to calm down a bit – ease off the gin, put the feet up and browse through the racing news online to get prepared for the week ahead.
Before group 1 fever returns on Saturday we have one major midweek distraction – the group 3 2400m Geelong Cup. Wednesday’s edition is the 122nd instalment of the race and features one or two international interests, notably Basaltico, trained in England by Luca Cumani, and Godolphin stable horse Crime Scene. Also in the mix for this one is Six O’Clock News, to be ridden by Noel Harris, among others.
Then of course we have the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday where there’s $3 million up for grabs over the 2040m. Whobegotyou has been the early contender in the betting markets for this one and is a favourite of mine, but I’ll have my ear to the ground all week. If developments are half as varied as they were for the Caulfield Cup then I’ll have a lot of work on my hands keeping up with the odds. Must be nice to have someone doing the legwork for you? A bit like a jockey really. Just kidding jockeys.
Joking apart, we have some rugby league to bet on again come Friday when the Four Nations kicks off. Despite the fact there are only four sides involved, this involves one of the wildest outsiders I think I’ve seen, ever.
France, whose appearance expands the event from the tri nations, are on anything from about 151.00 to about 70.00. That must be worth what I call a ‘comedy dollar’. Australia are clear favourites at 1.22 with Centrebet.
After Australia either England or New Zealand are unlikely second-favourites, depending on where you look – Centrebet has them at 7.00 and 6.50 respectively. Even my patriotic streak of Pom isn’t enough to have me gobbling up those odds, thank you very much. My lads kick off against France at Headingley on Friday, while Australia take on New Zealand on Saturday. I can feel another Ashes-themed upset in the air. Feeling lucky?
Read more »Looking on the bright side for the Caulfield Cup
October 17th, 2009 by adminSunshine and a few clouds are likely to greet the Caulfield Cup faithful on Saturday, according to the latest weather forecast, but the ongoing uncertainty in the markets looks likely to cause a dreary end to the day for a fair few punters.
There are some chinks of light through what is the most clouded market of the spring so far. Both Cima De Trimphe and Kirklees have continued to emerge and the latter is the 9.00 joint favourite with Betfair. Cima De Triomphe is at 9.20 and Predatory Pricer is on 9.00. These three, followed closely by Daffodil at 9.60, have emerged from the fog over the last 48 hours.
I’m still sticking with Kirklees purely because of his recent form over this distance, but it doesn’t take a genius to know an awful lot can happen tomorrow.
Where there is an open field, there is also value mixed in with the uncertainty, if history has taught us anything. A look at the placings odds shows up some tempting morsels which might be worth a look. Roman Emperor, ridden by Hugh Bowman, is around 6.00 for this and Red Ruler is on 7.00 and both could be worth a small investment. If you can find reasonable value for Kirklees each way, which admittedly is unlikely, try that too.
You’d be mad not to have a little browse elsewhere as well. There are plenty of sub-plots which could potentially save your bacon and your blushes if you play your cards right. Earlier on the card before the main event is the group 3 2000m Norman Robinson Stakes where a number of horses need a result in order to kick on for the season. Shamoline Warrior, a serious contender for the Victoria Derby, is a reasonably-priced favourite with IASbet at 3.80, while Tribunal may also be worth a small look at 4.60.
It’s been a weird week, what with the Caulfield Cup barrier draw and earlier pull-outs. But there’s nothing left to do other than sit back and enjoy the ride, turf lovers.
Read more »Figures favour Kirklees in Caulfield Cup chaos
October 16th, 2009 by adminThere’s little hope of a calmer sea for the Caulfield Cup betting markets on this edgy Thursday afternoon – if anything they’ve become more unstable overnight.
To re-cap, first of all the former favourite for Saturday’s big race, Speed Gifted, was instead nudged to the Cox Plate by his connections. Then Maldivian, another big contender pulled up injured and will play no further part in the spring.
Predatory Pricer briefly took up the baton of favourite on Tuesday before the barrier draw scattered the gathering punters again, dumping some of the big contenders out wide.
Today IASbet has Daffdodil and Cima de Triomphe as the joint favourites on odds of 8.00, with Predatory Pricer, set back somewhat by his barrier 16 draw, on 8.50. Next comes Kiklees at 9.00.
If this is how it stays until Saturday, I’ll eat my hip flask. Pretty much every market is awash with blinking up and down arrows so every time I log on I think I’m seeing Christmas lights. Alas, it’s just a set of flashing icons which could spell danger for Saturday.
In search of some clarity, I’m delving into the stats. Both Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees have been attracting plenty of attention thanks to their barrier draws of 11 and seven. Kirklees, a Godolphin star, should not overly struggle with the 2400m on Saturday if recent results are to be believed.
He won the September Stakes at this distance on September 5 and all his three races of the summer were over 2000m. However, he’s been piloted by Frankie Dettori for his last seven wins on the bounce but is partnered with Kerrin McEvoy on Saturday as Dettori is down to ride at Newmarket in the UK on Saturday. McEvoy has been studying videos of Kirklees and has described him as looking “straightforward”. How Kirklees feels about McEvoy is anyone’s guess though, and its debatable whether or not the change of rider will have an effect.
Turning to Cima De Triomphe, the Luca Cumani-trained stayer has also seen plenty of 2000m-plus racing but hasn’t won since May 28, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. His last effort at this precise distance saw him 9th from 16 in the Qatar Prix DE L’Arc De Triomph, which was just over a year ago.
The more recent figures are therefore certainly pointing to Kirklees, who is on odds of 7.50 with Centrebet, but looks better at 9.00 with Betfair. There’s your answer, if there is such a thing to this ongoing conundrum.
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
Read more »Pull-outs blow open the Caulfield Cup betting markets
October 14th, 2009 by adminWhen galloper Predatory Pricer got up off his considerable backside this morning and blinked open his big brown eyes, he was at best third favourite in the betting markets for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
By the time he’d relieved himself, been led out the stable and had a little run out, he was heading for the top of the betting after Speed Gifted was dropped out of the 2400m race to instead head off to the Cox Plate in the direction of the Melbourne Cup.
Punters keen on the half brother of Takeover Target will be hoping the bookmakers’ crown does not lie too heavy. He seemed to stubbornly wheel away in the wrong direction at one point this morning and didn’t look terribly chuffed to be up and out on the grass, but then again neither would I at that time of day. Jockey Steven King told the Herald Sun: “His form’s been outstanding even though he’s doing a lot wrong”. Outstanding and imperfect, much like me.
You can currently get 7.60 for him at Betfair, ahead of Vigor on 8.00, with the two joint favourites in other markets. Next in line is Cima De Triomphe at 9.00 and Daffodil completes the top pack at 13.00.
Ergo, Saturday is becoming a bit of a bear trap, but Vigor and Predatory Pricer do at least look in the right place at the top of the tree. More on his throughout the week.
Back to tomorrow’s diversion of the Thousand Guineas now. Irish Lights is still way out in front at 2.55 but Melito, trained by Gerald Ryan, is perhaps a bit on the high side at 10.00 in some markets earlier this week, now at 8.00 with Centrebet.
Betfair has her at a better 9.00 though, and she attracted a spike in punters cash with the bookmaker when easing up to 10.00 earlier in the week. She looks like more fun than a punt on Irish Lights if you are after something a bit more sexy, but if you’d rather play it safe with Melito go with a placings if you can find decent value.
Tomorrow’s race can act as a wind test for Saturday. Hopefully it’s blowing in my favour for what could be a gripping Caulfield Cup. Turf’s up.
Read more »Whobegotyou pays me back but Denman doesn’t deliver
October 13th, 2009 by adminWell Saturday didn’t disappoint as far as excitement goes. If you like a shock the Guineas at Caulfield was the place to be. Starspangledbanner outstripped four of the hottest youngsters in racing and made the bookies the main winners for the first major group 1 race of the spring.
Starspangledbanner burst away mighty fast and led the whole way, with Manhattan Rain the only one getting close and ending up in second. Denman, my shout, everybody’s shout, pretty much, was unplaced and was stuck three-wide through the hole thing, so we can probably let him off.
However, it was a nice, mean satisfying feeling to see Whobegotyou win the Yalumba Stakes on Saturday, not just because he was my tip for the race, but because he showed me up earlier on this year.
Last month he out-raced El Segundo, my shout in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, so he owed me big time and clearly felt guilty, starting at the back and edging ahead to break away and win it in the last 100. Jockey Damien Oliver also clocked up his 2000th win when he saved my blushes.
A mixed weekend again then but I’m fairly pleased with Whobegotyou. Saturday has nicely whetted my appetite for Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas as well, while of course we have the Caulfield Cup to deal with this Saturday.
The build-up machine has re-booted itself today, with much chatter over whether or not Speed Gifted, the current favourite, will actually appear. Trainer LeeFreedman has said he could be steered towards a Melbourne Cup attempt instead but the skies may decide it; the galloper tends to like the wet and the forecast for Saturday is rain so he may yet make it. We should find out tomorrow anyway.
Onwards, with cautious optimism and an umbrella.
Read more »The week ahead, including a World Cup betting blast
October 13th, 2009 by adminIt’s Sunday and whether or not you had any luck at Caulfield yesterday, there’s no time to waste; the racing is coming thick and fast now.
Wednesday sees Australia’s top fillies line up for the Thousand Guineas, again at Caulfield, with Irish lights leading the betting, on 3.00 with IASbet. On to Saturday and we’re at Caulfield again for the Caulfield Cup, where Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is the current favourite, on odds of 5.00 with Centrebet.
As with the Thousand Guineas, I’ll be spending the next few days picking through the hype and gripes surrounding these two races in the hope of steering you in the right direction.
As it’s Sunday today, however, I decided it was time for some light reading in the shape of a scan around the soccer betting markets for World Cup 2010.
Next year’s tournament is in South Africa and a number of big names have already qualified with room to spare, this includes Brazil, who have already won it five times in the past, and Spain, who dazzled with their passing game in winning Euro 2008.
England have also already qualified, as of course have Australia. Also already in the mix are Holland, who had a decent showing themselves at Euro 2008 before being surprisingly knocked out by Russia.
Pretty much everywhere you look at this early stage you find Spain and Brazil rightly out in front. Both have a very good chance next year, with Brazil winning the warm-up Confederations Cup in South Africa early this year. They are on 5.50, level with Spain, at IASbet, for next year.
Bafflingly, behind these two, come England as the 7.00 third favourites. Granted, they did have a good qualification campaign but their win against Croatia to seal the deal last month was against an under-strength side lacking the talents of Luca Modric. As such they have not faced a true test in a competitive match for a while and it’s bizarre that they are rated as more likely to win than Holland, on 12.00 with the same bookmaker.
A word for Russia here. Ok, they do have the odd strange performance but going forward they can be exhilarating and they were unlucky to go out to Spain in the Euro 2008 semi-finals after a very good tournament which saw them beat Holland. 26.00 therefore looks good for them at this stage with IASbet.
Until tomorrow, when I’ll be counting the mental cost of the weekend’s racing.
Read more »The wait is over and Denman looks ready to justify Caulfield Guineas odds
October 11th, 2009 by adminToday it won’t matter one bit what I’ve been prattling on about on here – at the end of the day once the tape goes up in the Caulfield Guineas we’re all on our own, a sea of well-dressed chancers grasping our betting slips in the crisp and cutting spring air.
I’m guessing that the last thing going through the mind of jockey Kerrin McEvoy as he stares at the Caulfield track between Denman’s ears is what the Pom de Turf is going to write on Monday morning if the pair of them have an off day.
For what it’s worth, I won’t be happy though. Form, tipping chatter and the bookies are all pointing towards the Peter Snowden-trained star and finding value might be your only problem today.
The last time I checked Betfair were among the few bookies prepared to offer you a little over the 2.70 to 2.80 mark for Denman. If your bowels are telling you not to follow the crowd then my personal recommendation would be Manhattan Rain, who has been knocking around a very tempting 6.50 to 7.00 all week and who is due a performance which truly fulfils his considerable potential.
By all accounts he has also looked truly sharp this week, with Gai Waterhouse declaring “it will be a great race on Saturday with the best colts in Australia coming together but I really believe I have the horse to win my first Caulfield Guineas”, so he’s your horse if you fancy living a little more dangerously, but I’m sticking my neck out with Denman.
Elsewhere today there’s plenty of adequate distraction from the Guineas in the shape of the Toorak Handicap and the Yalumba Stakes, among others. The latter could see a very tight contest between Heart Of Dreams and Whobegotyou, and simply because he did me earlier in the season I’m going with Whobegotyou. I feel like he owes me one.
Other than that my advice is simply this; relax and enjoy the thunder of hooves which means the best of the season’s group 1 racing has begun.
Read more »How to win even when your horse loses in the Caulfield Guineas
October 10th, 2009 by adminForgive me while I become misty-eyed for a few moments on this quiet and portentous Friday afternoon. Tomorrow we finally see what I really consider to be the curtain-raiser of the season in the shape of the Caulfield Guineas, and hopefully a reminder of what it’s all about.
If you’re going to Caulfield tomorrow, and whoever you’re betting on (perhaps no-one, perhaps you just like to get loaded and admire the hats) I advise you to get as close to the action as possible.
That’s part of the beauty of horse racing – the potential proximity of the spectators to the action. At seated sport you can’t just shoulder your way through and grip the barrier at the front if you feel like it, you’re stuck in your bucket, with only a foot-square space to gesticulate in.
So when race seven comes around, please don’t hover at the back, peering over people’s heads and guarding your champagne flute. If you can, shuffle close to the front and get that all-important glimpse of your jockey’s silks ruffling in the wind.
Watch your horse strain every sinew up close; you’ll probably see the jockeys’ teeth gritted as they surge for the post. Unless you’re dead behind the eyes, the hairs on the back of your neck will stand up, and win or lose you’ll feel that hard and fast rush that means you’ve got your money’s worth.
Denman, unsurprisingly, remains the favourite with all and sundry again today. Betfair have him on odds of 2.80 and this may be as good as you’re going to get today. Peering around for value could be the key if you are thinking of holding off until tomorrow.
The weather forecast for Caulfield is looking reasonable and I’ve just been checking an update on the track conditions, last updated 8am this morning. It’s a good 3 and there’s been no overnight rain.
More tomorrow, including my final shout. So You Think is edging around but at the moment I’m a Denman man.
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