Posts Tagged ‘Australian Horse Racing’
Twitter users pitch in with their Guineas betting twopence
October 9th, 2009 by adminTwitter might not be the best place to go hunting for Caulfield Guineas betting tips, but given the build-up to Saturday’s race is getting ever broader, it’s a welcome distraction from some of the predictable waffling coming from some sections of the media.
The main problem with this social media phenomenon is justification. 140 characters is barely enough to say what is happening, or to say what you think is going to happen, let alone say why it’s happening or why you think it’s likely to happen.
Take the following example;
Pom_De_Turf Trust me, turf lovers, Denman is the hottest prospect for the Caulfield Guineas betting on Saturday, he’s currently on odds of 2.80 (IASbet)
(140 characters)
There’s about enough room to squeeze in his odds, his name, the bookie, the race, the location, but as for saying why you think he’s in with a shout, forget it. Therefore taking your tweet as a tip is almost as much of a gamble as going in blind.
Of course, one hopes for a link in a tweet, taking the user to a long, detailed and almost scientific breakdown of why Denman is going to make you rich come booze-up time on Saturday, but ‘I think this nag is a cert’ often has to suffice.
So who are the thumb-twirling keyboard-bashing lovers of Twitter backing so far?
“I’m on Denman bandwagon. Denman to do what Lil O did!” says show_pony, while craigeyles says “Denman & So You Think look the best chances.” Horse_Racing_AU, points to a Betfair tipping story which is also backing the colt.
Cyberspace has apparently spoken and appears to be erring on the side of Denman, and so am I at this stage, with less than 48 hours to go. That previous form cannot be ignored, and even the rising interest in Guineas specialist Bart Cummings and Trusting, on 7.00 with IASbet, can’t sway me. Denman is 2.80 today with the same bookmaker and remains the favourite. Those odds could be smaller than my bookie’s credit limit by Saturday, so at this stage it seems good value.
Read more »The Caulfield Guineas for dummies
October 7th, 2009 by adminToday’s post begins the countdown in earnest to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas by guiding the numskulls and novices among us through what will happen on Saturday. I like to call it ‘The Caulfield Guineas for Poms, Plonkers and Pre-Post Punters’. Listen carefully, lest you end up still in the second category come race day.
In latest developments the barrier draw went off on Tuesday and saw Denman and Trusting drew seven and ten respectively, which did nothing to alter their position at the top of the online horse racing markets.
There’s some minor variation out there at this still relatively early stage. Betfair has got Denman on 2.82, with Trusting on 4.70. Over at IASbet the same pair are on odds of 2.70 and 4.80 respectively.
There are two others which are well in the mix – Manhattan Rain, on 6.80 and So You Think on 8.80, both with Betfair, and after this the closest chance is Starspangledbanner on 14.50.
1600m is the distance and the prize pot is a cool $1 million, but the Guineas is about much more than cash, despite what its name might suggest to the layman. It’s an Australian horse racing event which dates back to 1881 and which actually drew its influence from England, namely the 2,000 Guineas Classic, which also means set weights – a rarity in Australian thoroughbred racing. The first-ever winner was Wheatear and it’s been run every year since, with Whobegotyou claiming the glory last year.
So much attention is focussed on Trusting and Denman because they are widely seen as two of the brightest colts in Australian racing, and both are in fine form; Denman will make it seven wins in a row if he wins on Saturday.
Unless you’ve been in a bunker filled with jelly for the last six months, you should also know it’s the first truly major group 1 event of the spring and as such can be a useful guide for those wondering how the runners will do throughout the rest of the campaign.
I’ll be watching the build-up like a hawk and bringing you all the market movements throughout the week, brandy in hand, cash in a tight fist, which may only get tighter as the days tick by. We shall see.
Read more »Rude results in the Randwick rain
October 6th, 2009 by adminWell done for Randwick on Saturday – if you even got in it was apparently a result given the fact the wet weather kept the attendance indoors and disappointed crowds at the gates. By all accounts it was just like England, no doubt I would’ve felt right at home.
The poor weather pretty much reflected my luck over the weekend, on the track at least, as the Spring Champion Stakes went to Monaco Consul, not Onemorenomore, and The Metropolitan went to Speed Gifted, which no matter how much I squint and how much I try to cajole the bookies, looks nothing like Mr Clangtastic.
Another poor showing on the track after a reasonable one the weekend before. Perhaps I’m best ignored every other Saturday, but I did warn Randwick looked like a nightmare given the openness of pretty much everything which went through the barriers. At least there’s the Caulfield Guineas to look forward to on Saturday, when superstars Trusting, Denman and Manhattan Rain will be in attendance. Plenty of reason to be cheerful with that lot tacking to the track.
Thankfully the main event of the weekend, the NRL grand final, came through for me. Yesterday I nudged and winked at 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points with IASbet, and so it came to pass as the Storm beat Parramatta by 23 points to 16. Just call me Nostradamus.
In reality it wasn’t written in stone but in the Eel’s game plan, which wasn’t its old self and was lacking the very best of fullback Jarryd Hayne, who needed to have a good day to see his side upset the odds. As a result Melbourne imposed themselves early on and were just too good to let the Eels pinch their second title in three years.
After the dust has settled it’s always worth having a cheeky peek at the NRL betting markets for next season, with Betfair saying the Eels can bounce back as favourites on 5.30 for 2010. Melbourne are just behind on 5.40 for their third title in four years.
Until next season for NRL but until tomorrow for me as I begin a frenzied and nervous build-up to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas.
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