Posts Tagged ‘Daffodil’
Figures favour Kirklees in Caulfield Cup chaos
October 16th, 2009 by adminThere’s little hope of a calmer sea for the Caulfield Cup betting markets on this edgy Thursday afternoon – if anything they’ve become more unstable overnight.
To re-cap, first of all the former favourite for Saturday’s big race, Speed Gifted, was instead nudged to the Cox Plate by his connections. Then Maldivian, another big contender pulled up injured and will play no further part in the spring.
Predatory Pricer briefly took up the baton of favourite on Tuesday before the barrier draw scattered the gathering punters again, dumping some of the big contenders out wide.
Today IASbet has Daffdodil and Cima de Triomphe as the joint favourites on odds of 8.00, with Predatory Pricer, set back somewhat by his barrier 16 draw, on 8.50. Next comes Kiklees at 9.00.
If this is how it stays until Saturday, I’ll eat my hip flask. Pretty much every market is awash with blinking up and down arrows so every time I log on I think I’m seeing Christmas lights. Alas, it’s just a set of flashing icons which could spell danger for Saturday.
In search of some clarity, I’m delving into the stats. Both Cima de Triomphe and Kirklees have been attracting plenty of attention thanks to their barrier draws of 11 and seven. Kirklees, a Godolphin star, should not overly struggle with the 2400m on Saturday if recent results are to be believed.
He won the September Stakes at this distance on September 5 and all his three races of the summer were over 2000m. However, he’s been piloted by Frankie Dettori for his last seven wins on the bounce but is partnered with Kerrin McEvoy on Saturday as Dettori is down to ride at Newmarket in the UK on Saturday. McEvoy has been studying videos of Kirklees and has described him as looking “straightforward”. How Kirklees feels about McEvoy is anyone’s guess though, and its debatable whether or not the change of rider will have an effect.
Turning to Cima De Triomphe, the Luca Cumani-trained stayer has also seen plenty of 2000m-plus racing but hasn’t won since May 28, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. His last effort at this precise distance saw him 9th from 16 in the Qatar Prix DE L’Arc De Triomph, which was just over a year ago.
The more recent figures are therefore certainly pointing to Kirklees, who is on odds of 7.50 with Centrebet, but looks better at 9.00 with Betfair. There’s your answer, if there is such a thing to this ongoing conundrum.
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
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