Posts Tagged ‘Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes’
Whobegotyou pays me back but Denman doesn’t deliver
October 13th, 2009 by adminWell Saturday didn’t disappoint as far as excitement goes. If you like a shock the Guineas at Caulfield was the place to be. Starspangledbanner outstripped four of the hottest youngsters in racing and made the bookies the main winners for the first major group 1 race of the spring.
Starspangledbanner burst away mighty fast and led the whole way, with Manhattan Rain the only one getting close and ending up in second. Denman, my shout, everybody’s shout, pretty much, was unplaced and was stuck three-wide through the hole thing, so we can probably let him off.
However, it was a nice, mean satisfying feeling to see Whobegotyou win the Yalumba Stakes on Saturday, not just because he was my tip for the race, but because he showed me up earlier on this year.
Last month he out-raced El Segundo, my shout in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, so he owed me big time and clearly felt guilty, starting at the back and edging ahead to break away and win it in the last 100. Jockey Damien Oliver also clocked up his 2000th win when he saved my blushes.
A mixed weekend again then but I’m fairly pleased with Whobegotyou. Saturday has nicely whetted my appetite for Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas as well, while of course we have the Caulfield Cup to deal with this Saturday.
The build-up machine has re-booted itself today, with much chatter over whether or not Speed Gifted, the current favourite, will actually appear. Trainer LeeFreedman has said he could be steered towards a Melbourne Cup attempt instead but the skies may decide it; the galloper tends to like the wet and the forecast for Saturday is rain so he may yet make it. We should find out tomorrow anyway.
Onwards, with cautious optimism and an umbrella.
Read more »Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Murray madness, Moonee Valley betting and a look at the NRL and AFL finals
September 11th, 2009 by adminMy street cred in the online tennis betting world is in tatters this morning thanks to Andy Murray, who was looking quite plausible for the US Open on 4.00 with Canbet yesterday.
That was until he decided to implode against Marin Cilic in the fourth round and go down in straight sets. Cheers Andy.
Looking on the bright side, Rafael Nadal looked much better in his own fourth round clash with Gael Monfils, showing little signs of his injury troubles to win in four sets. He’s since shrunk to 5.00 for the tournament with Canbet, which is still looking reasonable against Roger Federer’s measly 1.62.
Back to the horse racing tipping now and my hunch, Wanna Play Doctor, note ‘hunch’ that’s H-U-N-C-H, came fourth in the Perth Racing Tv Handicap at Belmont Park on Wednesday. His record is still one win and a fourth place in three starts.
Elsewhere and looking ahead to the weekend racing I’m already intrigued by the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Lining up are two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, the former of which has a great record at this venue, not least the Cox Plate itself in 2007. Whobegotyou is last season’s Caulfield Guineas winner and both are at the top of this year’s Cox Plate betting. I’ll be keeping an eye on these two and rest of the field going into the end of the week.
Now on to the markets for the AFL and NRL finals, which are all over the place as the week’s build-ups gather place.
To summarise, the AFL semis are on Friday and Saturday, with Western Bulldogs (1.25) taking on Brisbane Lions (4.00) and Collingwood Magpies (2.12) against Adelaide Crows (1.73), with current odds from Centrenbet.
With the NRL finals, week one starts on Friday with Storm v Sea Eagles, then Saturday sees Titans v Broncos and Bulldogs v Knights, followed by Dragons v Eels on Sunday. Overall current favourites are St George on 3.25, with Melbourne Storm on 5.50. I’ll be monitoring the team news as it happens this week before casting my hat into the ring.
There you go, four sports in one post, that should make you feel better after Murraygate.
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