Posts Tagged ‘Gai Waterhouse’
Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough
September 19th, 2009 by adminTomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.
Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.
First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.
All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.
Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.
So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.
It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.
Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.
Read more »Black Caviar today. The horse, not the sturgeon eggs. Saturday wasn’t that successful.
September 3rd, 2009 by adminBesides tipping who is going to win races, I’ve recently been trying to pick up on who is not going to make the grade. Unsurprisingly deciding which bets are likely to fall flat is easier, but there is at least some brainpower needed.
For example it would’ve been easy to plump for Trusting in the Golden Rose on Saturday given his previous win in the Warwick Stakes – and with many bookies he was joint second favourite on about 5.80 on Thursday and Friday. I decided to steer clear because one Warwick Stakes win does not a Golden Rose winner make and the coverage of Trusting had smelled partly of pure hype the week before. Hence I went with Denman as a safer bet.
The point I’m trying to make is it may seem risky to call an avoid on a horse who appears to be attracting plenty of attention and plaudits, but there is method to my madness.
On Saturday we have the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington and Manhattan Rain, trained by Gai Waterhouse and known as one of the most valuable horses this side of the Danube, will be appearing. Given his touted worth of $20 million you’d think he’d be a wise move for Saturday but the midweek reports suggest otherwise.
Today the press has been awash with the news he didn’t fare that well in a four-horse 800m trial on Tuesday and will have blinkers on Saturday.
“It was a bit like ‘Well, here I am’,” is how Gail Waterhouse described his performance in the Sydney Morning Herald. I know just how he feels. Anyway, early doors he may be among the favourites but this race also involves filly Black Caviar, as yet unbeaten, while Grand Harmony was the winner of Tuesday’s trial and lead all the way to win at Seymour last month.
While I’ve got your attention it’s worth taking a look at how Saturday’s result in the Golden Rose has affected Denman’s odds for the season’s main events. He is now at 17.00 for the Cox Plate with IASbet, ahead of the aforementioned Black Caviar, who is on 21.00 for the Plate – possibly worth a shot now before what could be a good performance from the filly on Saturday?
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