Posts Tagged ‘Horse racing’
Racing Odds: Australians Brave In Hong Kong
December 15th, 2014 by Pom de TurfThe biggest day in the Hong Kong Racing calendar has been and gone this weekend, and it was every bit as exciting as we’ve come to expect from the big event at Sha Tin racecourse. There was some action in the Racing odds to keep us all interested, of course, and there were a couple of stand-out performances by Australian horses that are worth taking note of for the future, too…
The first of them was Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Racing Odds: Hong Kong Preview
December 12th, 2014 by Pom de TurfAll eyes will be on Sha Tin this weekend, and it’s well worth having a look over the Racing odds for the big races set for Sunday – the Hong Kong Cup amongst them. There will be some familiar names to Australian punters involved in the high-profile race, and there might be Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Brown Panther Sets Sights On Melbourne Cup
June 27th, 2014 by Pom de TurfAfter a brave run in the Gold Cup at Ascot this week, Brown Panther’s trainers and owner are daring to look ahead at a repeat appearance in the Melbourne Cup. It might be early doors, but the Cup is such a big race that you can understand plenty of forward planning. And after a decent run in last year’s race that saw him finish in eighth place, you’d think Brown Panther would be Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Are You Looking Ahead To The Melbourne Cup?
July 16th, 2013 by Pom de TurfIf you’re already looking forward to November 5th, you’re not alone. There are plenty of punters beginning to cast an eye over the potential runners, and we’re seeing Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine
October 23rd, 2009 by adminA brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.
William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.
Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.
Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.
Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.
Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.
A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.
Read more »Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »Rude results in the Randwick rain
October 6th, 2009 by adminWell done for Randwick on Saturday – if you even got in it was apparently a result given the fact the wet weather kept the attendance indoors and disappointed crowds at the gates. By all accounts it was just like England, no doubt I would’ve felt right at home.
The poor weather pretty much reflected my luck over the weekend, on the track at least, as the Spring Champion Stakes went to Monaco Consul, not Onemorenomore, and The Metropolitan went to Speed Gifted, which no matter how much I squint and how much I try to cajole the bookies, looks nothing like Mr Clangtastic.
Another poor showing on the track after a reasonable one the weekend before. Perhaps I’m best ignored every other Saturday, but I did warn Randwick looked like a nightmare given the openness of pretty much everything which went through the barriers. At least there’s the Caulfield Guineas to look forward to on Saturday, when superstars Trusting, Denman and Manhattan Rain will be in attendance. Plenty of reason to be cheerful with that lot tacking to the track.
Thankfully the main event of the weekend, the NRL grand final, came through for me. Yesterday I nudged and winked at 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points with IASbet, and so it came to pass as the Storm beat Parramatta by 23 points to 16. Just call me Nostradamus.
In reality it wasn’t written in stone but in the Eel’s game plan, which wasn’t its old self and was lacking the very best of fullback Jarryd Hayne, who needed to have a good day to see his side upset the odds. As a result Melbourne imposed themselves early on and were just too good to let the Eels pinch their second title in three years.
After the dust has settled it’s always worth having a cheeky peek at the NRL betting markets for next season, with Betfair saying the Eels can bounce back as favourites on 5.30 for 2010. Melbourne are just behind on 5.40 for their third title in four years.
Until next season for NRL but until tomorrow for me as I begin a frenzied and nervous build-up to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas.
Read more »NRL betting markets refuse to move, like a fat prop
October 2nd, 2009 by adminAs the week passes by it’s clear there’s going to be little movement in the NRL betting markets ahead of the grand final on Sunday.
If you ask me, I’m not a massive finals betting fan – because anything can happen in a final, and it frequently does. Knockout ties in general are very unpredictable – just look at what happened between St Kilda and Geelong in the recent AFL grand final. St Kilda were the marginal outsiders in the betting markets but looked like a good shout thanks to their form throughout the regular season. All was looking good until the end when the Cats pinched it and put a smile back on the face of the bookies. I was one of the ones left with a face like a smacked bum.
Anyway, that said, it’s a very miserable NRL betting fan who doesn’t have at least a little wager for the grand final.
Over at Betfair we see odds of 1.64 for Melbourne and 2.52 for Parramatta. Odds for the Storm have only hovered from about 1.70 to about 1.62, while the Eels started down at about 2.20 and rose somewhat before settling at 2.52 where they look likely to stay. Nothing remarkable about any of this and to be fair they were the best odds I could find on Thursday. Worth a small tickle on Parramatta perhaps, but more on this in the run-up to the final.
There’s a whopping 10 race card at Randwick on Saturday including the aforementioned Epsom Handicap. This is where I’ll be focussing most of my attention at the weekend, especially as mother nature is threatening to intervene.
Forecasts for Sydney today say sunshine and showers on Friday followed by the possibility of a deluge on Saturday. This poses some interesting questions in particular for The Metropolitan which features Mr Clangtastic, currently on 6.50 with Sportingbet.
I’ve picked him out because he has performed for me in the past, especially in the wet, winning the Wyong Cup. Trainer Marc Conners tends to watch the skies and sends him where the rain is but it may come to him on Saturday. So I’d have a wee wedge on that 6.50 now and do a rain dance.
Payne’s racing record speaks for itself chaps
October 1st, 2009 by adminWhether or not you’ve got money on El Segundo in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, you’d have to be pretty cold-hearted not to have a soft spot for him.
Piloting the 2007 Cox Plate winner is female jockey Michelle Payne – called in by trainer Colin Little due to a suspension handed to Luke Nolen.
The 24-year-old has won more than 400 races and will probably see Saturday as one of the biggest opportunities of her life. Mainly because she is a woman.
Despite her success and wealth of experience, which includes riding in England, Ireland and France, news of her scheduled appearance on Saturday is greeted with welcome surprise by the media, because, despite the progress made by the sport in recent years, Payne is still something of a rarity.
The Pom De Turf is in philosophical mood on this otherwise unremarkable Wednesday afternoon. Bear with me.
In my homeland racing is seen as a still-successful sport but one with an uncertain future – beyond the likes of the Grand National and Ladies’ Day at Ascot, racing is still associated with old men in smoky rooms by a lot of people.
To safeguard the long-term future of the sport, this has to change and female jockeys are very much part of that important pattern of change. That’s why even if El Segundo beats my tip on Saturday I won’t cry over spilt dollars.
[Removes elbow-padded jacket] Right, onto the betting for the Turnbull Stakes.
As it happens Payne says Flemington is her favourite course and she already has form with El Segundo, having piloted him to his maiden win. He’s currently on 10.00 with IASbet and will likely drop before the race – there are four horses ahead of him in the betting at the moment, but if you fancy a punt in solidarity the time is very much now.
Predatory Pricer is the current favourite, but only just, on 4.60, with Vigor right behind him on 4.80. Then comes Maldivian on 5.50. Too close to call right now and a placings bet might be more worthwhile come Friday, then again it might not, I’ll update on this later in the week.
Now I’m off to join old men in a smoky room to watch the action from Moonee Valley. Just kidding, thank god.
Read more »Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough
September 19th, 2009 by adminTomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.
Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.
First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.
All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.
Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.
So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.
It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.
Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.
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