Posts Tagged ‘horse racing betting’
Denman to check in on Saturday as Guineas betting starts to firm
September 24th, 2009 by adminIt’s check-up time on Saturday for a colt who could make some of us very happy in 11 days – Caulfield Guineas betting favourite Denman.
He’s off to the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick and could face a rather skinny field as there are only six nominations. However, among them will be More Than Great, trained by David Payne.
Denman will be familiar to many horse racing punters having already stormed to victory in the $1 million Golden Rose last month and is currently on odds of 3.80 for the October 10 Caulfield Guineas with IASbet.
He’s also now looking worthwhile for a wedge at 1.50 for the 1400m Stan Fox Stakes on Saturday, with More Than Great on 2.70 with IASbet.
Denman is trained by Peter Snowden, who has said recently he may not run another of his charges, Demerit, in the Guineas even though he won the Prelude. This means he could end up pinning his Guineas hopes solely on Denman, who currently has three truly stand-out rivals for the headliner.
Trusting is now just behind him on 4.20, with IASbet, So You Think is on 7.50 and Manhattan Rain stands on 8.50. Demerit follows on 14.00, but bearing in mind Snowden’s comments this week, may not appear, which leaves us with four current stand-outs for the Guineas.
Of those, Manhattan Rain has been the one lacking in va-va-voom overall, although the colt’s talent is undoubted. He was widely tipped for the Guineas Prelude on Saturday but only managed third.
Arguably, and slightly unscientifically, this leaves us with three hotties at this stage of the Guineas betting. Therefore Saturday is crucial for Denman and for punters – a strong showing and we may see him break away and shrink that 3.80. Am I nudging and winking at my first early shout for the season’s head liners? Yes I am.
Some brief NRL news for you now, where with the two preliminary finals appearing on Saturday there’s many a nail to be bitten. The second on Saturday sees the Brisbane Broncos take on Melbourne Storm and the Broncos are on 3.00 as the outsiders with Sportingbet. However, they are set to be missing Peter Wallace and this looks hardly generous. More on this later in the week.
Read more »Guineas confusion reigns thanks to Demerit
September 22nd, 2009 by admin<!– @page { size: 21cm 29.7cm; margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } –>
Thankfully I’m not the only one wondering what the hell just happened today. There are a fair few trainers and owners scratching their heads as well, which makes me feel a bit better. For Saturday, my friends, was again not the finest hour for many horse racing betting lovers.
Trusting and Manhattan Rain looked set to dominate the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield but both were outsmarted by Demerit, who was out on about 8.00 to 9.00 before the race. Trusting, my shout with Centrebet, ended up a close second, with Manhattan Rain in third.
The race was supposed to give us some early clues as to the winner of the Caulfield Guineas next month but instead has left it as wide open as ever. As a result the betting for the Guineas has gone all goo-gah. Demerit has climbed and is on 20.00 with Betfair – which is pretty high compared with some other bookmakers, so this may be a worth a little shot now if the Guineas is very much your thing. Denman remains the favourite on 4.30 while Manhattan Rain is on 10.50 with the same bookmaker.
More despair was to be had in the Underwood Stakes where Heart of Dreams took all the glory, with my shout, Whobegotyou, also in second in this one too. No joke’s about a “bet for a second” button for my winner tips please. It could be worse, I could have tipped star mare Typhoon Tracy, who ended up in eighth. Phew.
The Underwood, like the Prelude, was also meant to help us out ahead of another big one – The Cox Plate. But it’s all as clear as mud for this one as well now. Centrebet still has Whobegotyou as the favourite on 4.00, while Heart of Dreams is now on 11.00.
Thankfully there was some salvation to be had from Geelong versus Collingwood in the last AFL prelim final on Saturday, with the Cats triumphing to book their place in the final. Their odds shrank big style quickly afterwards so hopefully you took my advice to slap something on them early for the final.
We must look forward, like a galloper wearing five inch-wide blinkers. There is plenty to come this week – not least the Manikato Stakes on Friday night. After all, I’m still learning here and we’ve still not had one of the true season headliners yet. Hope springs internal.
I’m all for a nibble on Black Piranha
September 16th, 2009 by adminTuesday is another day. It’s also the day before the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle, when our quest to pick out the Cox Plate contenders continues.
We nearly ended up with sweet FA horse racing in midweek thanks to the row between the Australian Jockeys’ Association and the Australian Racing Board regarding whip rules. Had talks on Monday not gone to plan, we could have ended up with a jockey’s strike and a very vacant-looking Pom de Turf and potentially a rather sparse-looking blog.
Anyway, the new rules, which come in on Saturday, will see use of the whip allowed seven times in total in the last 12 strides, the sequence of which will be at riders discretion. The existing penalty structure has also been ditched and a panel is being set up to determine a new one. In short, the show can go on.
Back to Newcastle and the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap is particularly interesting thanks to the presence of Black Piranha. This is the start of the Con Karakatsanis-trained horse’s campaign, with the group 1 star having already won some $1.7m in stakemoney.
The gelding has gone through two barrier trials prior to Wednesday and came second in one of them on the Broadmeadow course. As such, he’s likely to be well-prepared and you may be able to get a reasonable price on him for Wednesday because it’s his first-up race. A quick look round gives us 3.00 for the win with ISAbet – go, go, go turf lovers. Closest to this is Ahdashim on 5.00 with the same bookmaker.
So, to the Cox Plate markets now and we have 15.00 for Black Piranha with Centrebet ahead of Wednesday – possibly worth an early interest given how far Whobegotyou plummeted after his win at the weekend – he’s the current favourite with the same bookmaker on a decidedly skinny 3.50.
While we’re talking about the Cox Plate betting, a quick Melbourne Cup round-up for you as well. I promised myself I’d keep quiet, but time is ticking on fast now. C’est La Guerre is current favourite on 9.00 with Centrebet, with Vigor on the same odds and Profound Beauty and Speed Gifted on 11.00. This will no doubt all change between now and November 3, and I’ll be drip-feeding juicy morsels as the clock ticks down. Meanwhile Black Piranha is our best shot this week at biting a chunk out of the bookies. Go fish.
Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
Read more »Cricket? Scotland? Never. Warner to knock up 100.
August 28th, 2009 by adminCricket? Scotland? Never. Warner to knock up 100.
For me, the concept of Scotland even thinking about playing international cricket is a slightly perverse one, despite their regular presence at the T20 World Cup. I can’t help it. It’s just so British and silly.
Apparently the bookmakers agree with me. Betfair are offering an almost laughably paltry 1.05 for Australia to win the one day international in Edinburgh on Friday, while the home side are at 12.00.
Nonetheless the local press are taking the whole thing seriously, with the Scotsman saying on Thursday that Aussie all-rounder James Hopes is warning Scotland he and the squad are ‘desperate to make a statement’ after the Test side lost the Ashes.
The paper then helpfully points out Hopes had never been to the UK prior to the World Twenty20 attempt in June – so presumably he has never been to Scotland before and is enjoying the Edinburgh sunshine safe in the knowledge there’s almost no danger of the home side repeating England’s performance.
Hopes is presumably also basking in the novelty of a country where it rains even more regularly than England.
Although Friday’s result is all but academic it will be interesting to see how Australia warm up before taking on England in the Twenty20 on Sunday.
Of particular interest is David Warner, an opener who got 89 from 43 balls on debut against South Africa earlier this year- and who could be a good bet to blast straight to a hundred on Friday.
Elsewhere, back with horse racing betting, and the new whip rules issue is already clutching at the edges of Saturday’s Golden Rose. However you feel about this one welfare-wise you could be shuffling in your seat if you’ve got money on Porsched, currently 34.00 with IASbet.
Jockey Peter Robl has had to get nice with the stewards after comments were attributed to him in a newspaper claiming he would hit the horse more than the rules allowed – if it was the difference between winning and losing.
He has said he was misquoted, but as a result plenty of eyes will be on his whip on Saturday. Could this affect him, perhaps even subconsciously? I’ll let you be the judge of that one.
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