Posts Tagged ‘Horse racing’
Online cricket betting gives England mighty short ODI shrift
September 18th, 2009 by adminA slight back seat for the horse racing today. I find it helps to sit and take stock on the Thursday, simply because by this point I’ve read so much track news I risk not being able to see the wood for the trees.
First today it’s over to my homeland to point and laugh at the ODI cricket series between England and Australia. The tourists are 5-0 up and take on England at Trent Bridge today for the sixth match and then again at the Riverside on Sunday for the final tie, by which time the hosts will have been put out of their misery.
The Pom de Turf can hear you chuckling. Laugh away, nothing is going to change the location of that little urn for the next two years. What is in doubt, however, is whether England can get anything at all given their poor performance at Trent Bridge on Tuesday when bad fielding cost them the match.
A tour of the online cricket betting markets throws up few surprises for these last two fixtures. Betfair is offering among the best prices for England to get anything at 2.66 which might be worth a look given England did improve on Tuesday and managed to rack up 299 runs, by far their biggest total of the series. If they can just sort the fielding out, then Nottingham might at least have something to cheer about for an evening or two.
Over at Sportingbet, they are offering you 4.25 for Andrew Strauss to get the highest batting score for England and a tempting looking 5.00 for Michael Clarke and 5.50 for Tim Paine to achieve the same marker for Australia.
Looking quickly to the track again I got quite excited when I realised the so-far impressive So You Think was making an appearance in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday. Trained by Burt Cummings, the horse has a win and a second place so far and looks likely to head to the Caulfield Guineas next month. However, the best I could find so far is 1.70 with IASbet, if you find better than this, certainly worth a shot, methinks.
Tomorrow its the usual deluge of information ahead of Saturday and Sunday – let’s hope I get it right this time. Turf’s up.
Underwood Stakes could be a punter’s graveyard on Saturday
September 17th, 2009 by adminToday much of the attention is starting to slowly swing towards the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday. This is because some of the form runners of the moment are in the betting for this one, including current Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou, plus the likes of Predatory Pricer, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor. That, my friends, is quite a line-up.
Helpfully, it distracts from the fact that my shout Black Piranha was ‘close but no cigar’ in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday, coming second to Absolutelyfabulous.
In my defence, it was the first race of the season for Black Piranha, so in my view he’s still well on track for a strong shot at the Cox Plate. At 200 metres it looked like jockey Tye Angland had to alter course somewhat, which might be what took my dignity in this one.
Anyway a few early facts on the Underwood. It’s a Caulfield, group 1 affair over over 1800m for three year-olds and up with prize money totalling $350,000.
Whobegotyou ended an 11-month losing streak with the win at the weekend and is to be reunited with jockey Michael Rodd on Saturday. Mark Kavanagh had a dilemma after that win on whether he would go straight into another race at the weekend, and appears to have decided to take the chance to match the horse up with his stablemate Maldivian in the race, who himself is a Cox Plate winner.
Elsewhere, Predatory Pricer and Whobegotyou are fighting a separate duel, having faced each other three times before – Predatory Pricer has two wins from these meetings to just the one for Whobegotyou. Sub-plots galore for this one then, and I won’t be trying to call it until Friday at the earliest. Whobegotyou has already made me look like a wally once, so I’ll be watching his odds very carefully.
The betting is already getting interesting with Whobegotyou the favourite with IASbet on 2.60 and Vigor second favourite on 6.00 with the same bookmaker, having dropped from 7.50 earlier in the week. Typhoon Tracy and Heart of Dreams are on 8.00, with Predatory Pricer looking interesting all the way out on 12.00. Made up your mind? No, neither have I.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
Read more »A midweek racing hunch, and narrow odds at the US Open
September 9th, 2009 by adminHorse racing-wise the midweek meetings all feel a bit mundane compared to Saturday’s high jinks, but there are some good little sub-plots nonetheless.
Firstly a quick nod to Fiveoclockshadow who was last in the Cherrybrook Park Welter at Warwick Farm on Tuesday.
No, I didn’t tip him, but it was nice to see him out nonetheless after I read earlier in the week this was only his seventh start in close to three years after injury and flu problems. Trainer Nerissa Cowell, formerly of Queensland, found herself stuck in NSW in 2007 after an equine influenza outbreak so it’s nice to see Fiveoclockshadow racing again.
Elsewhere on Wednesday there’s betting to be had at Canterbury, Doomben, Belmont Park and others. At Belmont Park little-known Wanna Play Doctor has caught my eye for some reason in the 1400m Perth Racing Tv Handicap. He’s a four-year-old with two wins in his two starts to date, both at this distance, so I’d be tempted to nudge something modest on this.
Online tennis betting markets are providing plenty of interest at the moment thanks to the US Open. Odds in the women’s event are dominated by Serena Williams, who is on 1.65 for the title with Canbet, ahead of Kim Clijsters on 3.75.
The men’s event is similarly dominated by one player in the shape of Swiss Roger Federer (isn’t every tournament?) on 1.83 with the same bookmaker ahead of Andy Murray on 4.00. It’s a fair bet that Murray will have to beat Federer at some point if he is to win it and the Scot has a great record against him at six wins in eight meetings, so that 4.00 on Murray isn’t looking so bad.
Also in the running is Rafael Nadal on 9.00 with Canbet which looks tempting doesn’t it? However the Spaniard is carrying an injury and has struggled to hide the abdominal problem from the press and has hardly been talking himself up: “I am a little bit tired to talk about injuries. I am here to try my best every day.” is the best he could manage earlier this week.
Some early weekend horse racing pointers tomorrow and a nice dose of AFL and NRL crunch time info.
Read more »Miss Marielle, will you marry me?
September 8th, 2009 by adminMonday’s are not once they were. At one time they were grey, dull, and bereft of optimism. Then I took up the task of crafting Australian horse racing tips and everything changed.
The first day of the week is now defined by the weekend’s horse racing – if my shouts for the weekend have come through, Monday is not blue, it’s green with dollars and smugness.
Let’s backtrack to Friday first, when the Wyong Gold Cup kicked off the weekend at Wyong. I went with Mr Clangtastic after his trainer switched him there at short notice as the rain fell on Thursday and he came through in fine style, 3.70 third favourite with Centrebet when I pointed him out.
As a side issue, the less said about my NRL shout for the Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time on Friday, the better. Cough cough. Moving swiftly on…….
Next the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday provided the entertainment. Black Caviar was on 1.75 on Friday with Centrebet, but I urged a wad on this as she was likely to drop further. Ok, ok, so she did have one of those shaky starts of hers but she won it didn’t she? And she shrank to 1.45 with some bookmakers so no chuckling please.
Unfortunately it was a mighty tough one for her on Saturday and trainer Peter Moody has since revealed she could have sustained a injury with that dodgy start. I’m keeping my eyes on this as she looked a good shot for the Cox Plate and has already made friends with punters and hacked off the bookies with four wins in four.
There was less luck at the Makybe Diva Stakes on the same card at Flemington I’m afraid, but if I’d picked three tricky winners in a row people would be saying something was up. My shout was Heart of Dreams but outsider Vigor took the honours.
Then to the 1600m Chelmesford Stakes at Randwick – it was a tough one and O’Lonhro, the favourite, won it, with my ‘long shot’ shout Roman Emperor fifth.
But wait for it, who’s that in second? Miss Marielle, you beauty, my advice for a Friday placings bet on 6.33 with IASbet.
That’s a three out of four racing success rate for the weekend. It sounds better when I say “75 per cent”.
Tomorrow I’ll have a closer look at some of the midweek racing, and it’s about time I dipped into the tennis betting markets as the US Open hots up. Happy Monday from the Pom de Turf.
Read more »Much love for Heart of Dreams and Miss Marielle
September 5th, 2009 by adminAfter making hay with Mic Mac and Denman last weekend I can hardly wait for Saturday’s horse racing, which has no Golden Rose to whip me into a group 1 fever but does have a couple of very interesting races to make or break your morale.
I’ll get the the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington out of the way first. I say ‘out of the way’ because picking the winner is a distinctly grim task – it’s going to be Black Caviar unless there’s a gigantic upset.
The filly looks something special and has stormed to three wins in her first three starts and has been recording ‘freakish’ times. As such she’s on a recession-like 1.75 with Centrebet.
If you are quick it might actually be worth slapping a pile on this because Rostova, another promising youngster, has been scratched, according to Centrebet, and Manhattan Rain, one of the most valuable horses in Australia, is out as well after an underwhelming trial on Tuesday. Black Caviar is likely to drop further and of the other eight horses running only two are over 6.00 for a placings bet – Extra Zero at 7.50 and 51.00 for the win and Point Pain, 21.00 or a whopping 151.00 for the win.
The group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes is also at Flemington tomorrow and is much, much tighter. Typhoon Tracy is the favourite here on 2.82, followed by Predatory Pricer on 4.1 and Heart of Dreams on 5.1 – oops as I say that he’s just gone to 5.00 with Betfair so is dropping – form is strong for all three going into this one but because we’re seeing movement if I had to I’d go with Heart of Dreams now.
On to the 1600m Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick now, and O’Lonhro is the out-and-out favourite and has shrunk throughout the week to stand on 2.80 with IASbet – he has two wins and two placings from his last four and runs from barrier six. Close behind are Court Command on 4.50 and Triple Honour at 5.40, both with Betfair. This is a tricky one and I actually have a good feeling about Roman Emperor, on 12.00 with Betfair – don’t look at me like that, it’s just a ‘feeling’. Also there’s Miss Marielle on 12.00 for the win but certainly worth a little look on 6.33 for a placing with IASbet.
Failure for the Aussies – but success for our cricket betting tip
August 25th, 2009 by adminFailure for the Aussies – but success for our cricket betting tip
It’s Monday and the dust has settled – both on the Oval cricket pitch and at Randwick and Moonee Valley, with the former racecourse being a bit of a punter’s graveyard over the weekend.
I hold my hands up to the Voice Commander shout in the 1400m Warwick Stakes – he was nowhere to be seen and my dollars are similarly conspicuous by their absence after Trusting came in, having stood at around 9.00 with many bookies.
Moonee Valley thankfully took the edge off this as Secret Flyer got us the win in the BC3 Future Stars – anyone who paid attention and slapped a wedge on this one at 2.70 with Centrebet on Friday will be breathing a very happy sigh of relief.
The ‘Pom’ part of ‘Pom de Turf’ is especially smug about the Ashes for more reasons than should be mentioned here. I won’t bore you with the sledging but will instead point to the floppy blonde head of English pace bowler Stuart Broad – not to laugh, but to hail his five wicket haul which would have netted you some cash if you took Friday’s advice of a punt on a bowler to take five wickets in an innings with Betfair at 2.02.
You all fancied Ben Hilfenhaus for this on Saturday didn’t you? Well you won cash anyway so don’t look quite so down. Remember what happened the last time England went to Australia to defend the urn and you should cheer up smartly.
We have midweek racing at Randwick on the Kensington track on Tuesday and the 1100m Intergaze Maiden Plate is a potential nightmare – there are a number of decent horses dropping down to midweek and although there’s plenty of interest on Glowlamp at 1.85 with Centrebet I’ve got a bad feeling about this one with decent shouts Purdey and Schlager hovering ominously behind.
Instead the Chris Munce – ridden Sainthood is looking reasonable in the 1550m handicap on the same card – Betfair will give you 3.00 for this.
Elsewhere we can expect a massive week in both AFL and NRL betting – watch this space for tips as the battle for the top eight heats up.
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