Posts Tagged ‘Manhattan Rain’
Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far
November 10th, 2009 by adminIt seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.
As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.
See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.
August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)
September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60
October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00
November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50
Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.
This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.
Read more »Manhattan Rain causes a storm but who’d bet against Bart?
October 26th, 2009 by adminIt was another mixture of satisfaction and frustration on Saturday as I came good with my shout for the placings but fell down when it came to the winner. Whobegotyou failed to live up to his clear favourite tag for the Cox Plate and was well out of the placings, as So You Think, who almost no-one had talked about, led from the off to win.
But finally, at last, Manhattan Rain showed us what he’s made of and came in second. He was on 6.00 for each way with Centrebet when I recommended him earlier in the week and that almost wiped out the disappointment of ‘Whobe’, who was on a rather skinny 3.00 and even below around race time.
I’m rapidly developing a record of failing to pick out a winner but always pulling out a placer, having repeated the feat in the Caulfield Cup with Kirklees also nowhere to be seen but Roman Emperor making good my each-way shout.
Saturday’s result now also throws up an interesting problem for punters – Bart Cummings is fast becoming a ‘don’t bet against’ trainer, having been behind So You Think and Caulfield Cup winner Viewed. Que much talk of knighthoods, multiple ‘living legends’ and several ‘geniuses’. To many punters, including me, the man is frankly a menace, but credit to him.
He’s also got six horses who could appear in the Melbourne Cup, prompting Sportingbet to offer up a tempting morsel. ‘Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup?’ the bookmaker asks, and they are offering 4.50 on the winner next Tuesday being another Bart beauty. Should you feel Flemington’s gala feature is just a step too far even for him, Sportingbet will give you 1.20.
Three of his six are assured of a start – Viewed, Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder and Sportingbet has Viewed at 7.00 and Roman Emperor at 12.00 for the Melbourne Cup, while Allez Wonder is at 31.00. Current joint favourites with the same bookmaker are Efficient and Alcopop on 6.00.
We all now live in fear of being Barted into oblivion if we dare not to back one of his charges. At least there’s the distraction of the Victoria Derby on Saturday before we have to face the legend and the main event.
Read more »Whobe is home from home today
October 24th, 2009 by adminUnlike plenty of other runners in today’s Cox Plate, favourite Whobegotyou has only been hanging about getting familiar with Moonee Valley for a day or two.
While other trainers were making sure their runners were given plenty of opportunity to pound the circuit and familiarise themselves with the turf that will make and break fortunes today, Whobegotyou arrived late. On Thursday he was still at Flemington, where trainer Mark Kavanagh kept him in his regular routine.
Carelessness on the part of Kavanagh? Overconfidence? Not at all. ‘Whobe’ does not need the practice at Moonee Valley. Four times he has run here, four times he has won. This place is his second home.
His jockey is Damien Oliver, who told The Age the conditions seem to do him a favour.
“He’s one of those horses that seem really comfortable here,” Oliver has said. “The track does seem to have a bit more give than most tracks, and that’s probably receptive to him.”
So in his natural environment he will make hay and leave all in his wake. A bit like me and a free buffet.
But Oliver did have a warning for those punters who are hoping for a better day than the open and carnivorous field of the Caulfield Cup last week – watch out for El Segundo, he said, who also likes the Moonee Valley wind in his hair. The Colin Little-trained veteran has also won four times here – including the 2007 Cox Plate.
Value will be your problem today no doubt – although some people drifted away from Whobe after his barrier 10 draw, there will plenty of cash heading his way on race day and anything above 3.00 could be your best bet. Betfair has had him around 3.20 in recent days.
Shop around for those placings too – as of Friday only Manhattan Rain looked particularly sensible on 6.00 each way with some bookies, but a measly 4.00-odd is the best you may get for some of the better runners with most bookmakers. Heart Of Dreams has been a reasonably-priced second favourite all week and that shouldn’t change today, go with him if you’re looking to counterbalance a wedge on Whobe. I’m off to my own comfort of the buffet. Drinks are on me if the favourite wins.
Read more »Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine
October 23rd, 2009 by adminA brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.
William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.
Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.
Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.
Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.
Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.
A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.
Read more »Whobegotyou pays me back but Denman doesn’t deliver
October 13th, 2009 by adminWell Saturday didn’t disappoint as far as excitement goes. If you like a shock the Guineas at Caulfield was the place to be. Starspangledbanner outstripped four of the hottest youngsters in racing and made the bookies the main winners for the first major group 1 race of the spring.
Starspangledbanner burst away mighty fast and led the whole way, with Manhattan Rain the only one getting close and ending up in second. Denman, my shout, everybody’s shout, pretty much, was unplaced and was stuck three-wide through the hole thing, so we can probably let him off.
However, it was a nice, mean satisfying feeling to see Whobegotyou win the Yalumba Stakes on Saturday, not just because he was my tip for the race, but because he showed me up earlier on this year.
Last month he out-raced El Segundo, my shout in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, so he owed me big time and clearly felt guilty, starting at the back and edging ahead to break away and win it in the last 100. Jockey Damien Oliver also clocked up his 2000th win when he saved my blushes.
A mixed weekend again then but I’m fairly pleased with Whobegotyou. Saturday has nicely whetted my appetite for Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas as well, while of course we have the Caulfield Cup to deal with this Saturday.
The build-up machine has re-booted itself today, with much chatter over whether or not Speed Gifted, the current favourite, will actually appear. Trainer LeeFreedman has said he could be steered towards a Melbourne Cup attempt instead but the skies may decide it; the galloper tends to like the wet and the forecast for Saturday is rain so he may yet make it. We should find out tomorrow anyway.
Onwards, with cautious optimism and an umbrella.
Read more »The wait is over and Denman looks ready to justify Caulfield Guineas odds
October 11th, 2009 by adminToday it won’t matter one bit what I’ve been prattling on about on here – at the end of the day once the tape goes up in the Caulfield Guineas we’re all on our own, a sea of well-dressed chancers grasping our betting slips in the crisp and cutting spring air.
I’m guessing that the last thing going through the mind of jockey Kerrin McEvoy as he stares at the Caulfield track between Denman’s ears is what the Pom de Turf is going to write on Monday morning if the pair of them have an off day.
For what it’s worth, I won’t be happy though. Form, tipping chatter and the bookies are all pointing towards the Peter Snowden-trained star and finding value might be your only problem today.
The last time I checked Betfair were among the few bookies prepared to offer you a little over the 2.70 to 2.80 mark for Denman. If your bowels are telling you not to follow the crowd then my personal recommendation would be Manhattan Rain, who has been knocking around a very tempting 6.50 to 7.00 all week and who is due a performance which truly fulfils his considerable potential.
By all accounts he has also looked truly sharp this week, with Gai Waterhouse declaring “it will be a great race on Saturday with the best colts in Australia coming together but I really believe I have the horse to win my first Caulfield Guineas”, so he’s your horse if you fancy living a little more dangerously, but I’m sticking my neck out with Denman.
Elsewhere today there’s plenty of adequate distraction from the Guineas in the shape of the Toorak Handicap and the Yalumba Stakes, among others. The latter could see a very tight contest between Heart Of Dreams and Whobegotyou, and simply because he did me earlier in the season I’m going with Whobegotyou. I feel like he owes me one.
Other than that my advice is simply this; relax and enjoy the thunder of hooves which means the best of the season’s group 1 racing has begun.
Read more »Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »Denman to check in on Saturday as Guineas betting starts to firm
September 24th, 2009 by adminIt’s check-up time on Saturday for a colt who could make some of us very happy in 11 days – Caulfield Guineas betting favourite Denman.
He’s off to the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick and could face a rather skinny field as there are only six nominations. However, among them will be More Than Great, trained by David Payne.
Denman will be familiar to many horse racing punters having already stormed to victory in the $1 million Golden Rose last month and is currently on odds of 3.80 for the October 10 Caulfield Guineas with IASbet.
He’s also now looking worthwhile for a wedge at 1.50 for the 1400m Stan Fox Stakes on Saturday, with More Than Great on 2.70 with IASbet.
Denman is trained by Peter Snowden, who has said recently he may not run another of his charges, Demerit, in the Guineas even though he won the Prelude. This means he could end up pinning his Guineas hopes solely on Denman, who currently has three truly stand-out rivals for the headliner.
Trusting is now just behind him on 4.20, with IASbet, So You Think is on 7.50 and Manhattan Rain stands on 8.50. Demerit follows on 14.00, but bearing in mind Snowden’s comments this week, may not appear, which leaves us with four current stand-outs for the Guineas.
Of those, Manhattan Rain has been the one lacking in va-va-voom overall, although the colt’s talent is undoubted. He was widely tipped for the Guineas Prelude on Saturday but only managed third.
Arguably, and slightly unscientifically, this leaves us with three hotties at this stage of the Guineas betting. Therefore Saturday is crucial for Denman and for punters – a strong showing and we may see him break away and shrink that 3.80. Am I nudging and winking at my first early shout for the season’s head liners? Yes I am.
Some brief NRL news for you now, where with the two preliminary finals appearing on Saturday there’s many a nail to be bitten. The second on Saturday sees the Brisbane Broncos take on Melbourne Storm and the Broncos are on 3.00 as the outsiders with Sportingbet. However, they are set to be missing Peter Wallace and this looks hardly generous. More on this later in the week.
Read more »Guineas confusion reigns thanks to Demerit
September 22nd, 2009 by admin<!– @page { size: 21cm 29.7cm; margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } –>
Thankfully I’m not the only one wondering what the hell just happened today. There are a fair few trainers and owners scratching their heads as well, which makes me feel a bit better. For Saturday, my friends, was again not the finest hour for many horse racing betting lovers.
Trusting and Manhattan Rain looked set to dominate the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield but both were outsmarted by Demerit, who was out on about 8.00 to 9.00 before the race. Trusting, my shout with Centrebet, ended up a close second, with Manhattan Rain in third.
The race was supposed to give us some early clues as to the winner of the Caulfield Guineas next month but instead has left it as wide open as ever. As a result the betting for the Guineas has gone all goo-gah. Demerit has climbed and is on 20.00 with Betfair – which is pretty high compared with some other bookmakers, so this may be a worth a little shot now if the Guineas is very much your thing. Denman remains the favourite on 4.30 while Manhattan Rain is on 10.50 with the same bookmaker.
More despair was to be had in the Underwood Stakes where Heart of Dreams took all the glory, with my shout, Whobegotyou, also in second in this one too. No joke’s about a “bet for a second” button for my winner tips please. It could be worse, I could have tipped star mare Typhoon Tracy, who ended up in eighth. Phew.
The Underwood, like the Prelude, was also meant to help us out ahead of another big one – The Cox Plate. But it’s all as clear as mud for this one as well now. Centrebet still has Whobegotyou as the favourite on 4.00, while Heart of Dreams is now on 11.00.
Thankfully there was some salvation to be had from Geelong versus Collingwood in the last AFL prelim final on Saturday, with the Cats triumphing to book their place in the final. Their odds shrank big style quickly afterwards so hopefully you took my advice to slap something on them early for the final.
We must look forward, like a galloper wearing five inch-wide blinkers. There is plenty to come this week – not least the Manikato Stakes on Friday night. After all, I’m still learning here and we’ve still not had one of the true season headliners yet. Hope springs internal.
Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough
September 19th, 2009 by adminTomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.
Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.
First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.
All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.
Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.
So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.
It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.
Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.
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