Posts Tagged ‘Moonee Valley’
Manhattan Rain causes a storm but who’d bet against Bart?
October 26th, 2009 by adminIt was another mixture of satisfaction and frustration on Saturday as I came good with my shout for the placings but fell down when it came to the winner. Whobegotyou failed to live up to his clear favourite tag for the Cox Plate and was well out of the placings, as So You Think, who almost no-one had talked about, led from the off to win.
But finally, at last, Manhattan Rain showed us what he’s made of and came in second. He was on 6.00 for each way with Centrebet when I recommended him earlier in the week and that almost wiped out the disappointment of ‘Whobe’, who was on a rather skinny 3.00 and even below around race time.
I’m rapidly developing a record of failing to pick out a winner but always pulling out a placer, having repeated the feat in the Caulfield Cup with Kirklees also nowhere to be seen but Roman Emperor making good my each-way shout.
Saturday’s result now also throws up an interesting problem for punters – Bart Cummings is fast becoming a ‘don’t bet against’ trainer, having been behind So You Think and Caulfield Cup winner Viewed. Que much talk of knighthoods, multiple ‘living legends’ and several ‘geniuses’. To many punters, including me, the man is frankly a menace, but credit to him.
He’s also got six horses who could appear in the Melbourne Cup, prompting Sportingbet to offer up a tempting morsel. ‘Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup?’ the bookmaker asks, and they are offering 4.50 on the winner next Tuesday being another Bart beauty. Should you feel Flemington’s gala feature is just a step too far even for him, Sportingbet will give you 1.20.
Three of his six are assured of a start – Viewed, Roman Emperor and Allez Wonder and Sportingbet has Viewed at 7.00 and Roman Emperor at 12.00 for the Melbourne Cup, while Allez Wonder is at 31.00. Current joint favourites with the same bookmaker are Efficient and Alcopop on 6.00.
We all now live in fear of being Barted into oblivion if we dare not to back one of his charges. At least there’s the distraction of the Victoria Derby on Saturday before we have to face the legend and the main event.
Read more »Whobe is home from home today
October 24th, 2009 by adminUnlike plenty of other runners in today’s Cox Plate, favourite Whobegotyou has only been hanging about getting familiar with Moonee Valley for a day or two.
While other trainers were making sure their runners were given plenty of opportunity to pound the circuit and familiarise themselves with the turf that will make and break fortunes today, Whobegotyou arrived late. On Thursday he was still at Flemington, where trainer Mark Kavanagh kept him in his regular routine.
Carelessness on the part of Kavanagh? Overconfidence? Not at all. ‘Whobe’ does not need the practice at Moonee Valley. Four times he has run here, four times he has won. This place is his second home.
His jockey is Damien Oliver, who told The Age the conditions seem to do him a favour.
“He’s one of those horses that seem really comfortable here,” Oliver has said. “The track does seem to have a bit more give than most tracks, and that’s probably receptive to him.”
So in his natural environment he will make hay and leave all in his wake. A bit like me and a free buffet.
But Oliver did have a warning for those punters who are hoping for a better day than the open and carnivorous field of the Caulfield Cup last week – watch out for El Segundo, he said, who also likes the Moonee Valley wind in his hair. The Colin Little-trained veteran has also won four times here – including the 2007 Cox Plate.
Value will be your problem today no doubt – although some people drifted away from Whobe after his barrier 10 draw, there will plenty of cash heading his way on race day and anything above 3.00 could be your best bet. Betfair has had him around 3.20 in recent days.
Shop around for those placings too – as of Friday only Manhattan Rain looked particularly sensible on 6.00 each way with some bookies, but a measly 4.00-odd is the best you may get for some of the better runners with most bookmakers. Heart Of Dreams has been a reasonably-priced second favourite all week and that shouldn’t change today, go with him if you’re looking to counterbalance a wedge on Whobe. I’m off to my own comfort of the buffet. Drinks are on me if the favourite wins.
Read more »Reasonable value for Manhattan Rain in the Moonee Valley sunshine
October 23rd, 2009 by adminA brief history lesson for you. When you’re standing by the side of the Moonee Valley track, sat in front of your TV or moping in your local bookies on Saturday, remember who the Cox Plate is named after.
William Samuel Cox pretty much invented thoroughbred racing in Australia and set up Moonee Valley Racing Club nearly 130 years ago. Initially it was a nondescript bit of land in a valley a few miles north of Melbourne – today it’s where the eyes of millions will turn on Saturday. If it wasn’t for him you might never have won a cent on horse racing. Then again, you might never have lost anything either. Poor example. Let’s move on.
Not much has changed in the online betting markets – Whobegotyou is still the clear favourite, which is a god given mercy after the anarchy which reigned in the run-up to the Caulfield Cup last week.
Value will probably be the main problem when it comes to Mark Kavanagh’s charge. Betfair has him at 3.20 and this could be the best it gets between now and the off.
Understandably plenty are looking at each way bets and there is some interesting opportunity here. Centrebet has Gai Waterhouse-trained Manhattan Rain on odds of 6.00 for a placing and 23.00 for the race. He is at least due a big performance and will be there or thereabouts come the final turn. El Segundo looks another possible but value might be lacking as far as each way goes – if you come across anything worthwhile this one may be worth a shot.
Those looking for something a bit sexier than the short prices for Whobegotyou can get 6.00 for second favourite Heart Of Dreams at Betfair.
A small diversion from the 2040m-long main event on Saturday – Australia are looking to avenge their defeat to New Zealand in last year’s 2008 rugby league World Cup final. The Kangaroos play the Kiwis at Twickenham stoop and are at very low odds for the win. They do have a few injuries, however, while New Zealand are at almost full strength and are on 4.00 with Betfair to upset the odds again. Until Saturday, Turf lovers.
Read more »A lazy Sunday look ahead to Geelong and the Cox Plate
October 19th, 2009 by adminOn Sunday I like to calm down a bit – ease off the gin, put the feet up and browse through the racing news online to get prepared for the week ahead.
Before group 1 fever returns on Saturday we have one major midweek distraction – the group 3 2400m Geelong Cup. Wednesday’s edition is the 122nd instalment of the race and features one or two international interests, notably Basaltico, trained in England by Luca Cumani, and Godolphin stable horse Crime Scene. Also in the mix for this one is Six O’Clock News, to be ridden by Noel Harris, among others.
Then of course we have the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday where there’s $3 million up for grabs over the 2040m. Whobegotyou has been the early contender in the betting markets for this one and is a favourite of mine, but I’ll have my ear to the ground all week. If developments are half as varied as they were for the Caulfield Cup then I’ll have a lot of work on my hands keeping up with the odds. Must be nice to have someone doing the legwork for you? A bit like a jockey really. Just kidding jockeys.
Joking apart, we have some rugby league to bet on again come Friday when the Four Nations kicks off. Despite the fact there are only four sides involved, this involves one of the wildest outsiders I think I’ve seen, ever.
France, whose appearance expands the event from the tri nations, are on anything from about 151.00 to about 70.00. That must be worth what I call a ‘comedy dollar’. Australia are clear favourites at 1.22 with Centrebet.
After Australia either England or New Zealand are unlikely second-favourites, depending on where you look – Centrebet has them at 7.00 and 6.50 respectively. Even my patriotic streak of Pom isn’t enough to have me gobbling up those odds, thank you very much. My lads kick off against France at Headingley on Friday, while Australia take on New Zealand on Saturday. I can feel another Ashes-themed upset in the air. Feeling lucky?
Read more »Denman ends my losing streak in fine style
September 29th, 2009 by adminIt turns out pretty much nobody was right about the Manikato Stakes at a damp Moonee Valley on Friday night. Now no-one is happy. Last time in a while I get mixed up in a race like that.
Danleigh took the honours. Who? I know. A 17.00 outsider. The favourite, Nicconi, was third and my shout Mic Mac ended up in fifth. So I look daft but so do all the weirdos who shunned Mic Mac in favour of Nicconi. Let that be a lesson to both of us. Now let’s move on.
Saturday’s hotly-anticipated NFL grand final did go the way of the favourite – in this case Geelong Cats, who won 80 to 68 over St Kilda, although at least St Kilda were making a damn good show of it until a goal in the final seconds robbed the outsiders at the last. Well, I did warn you anything can happen in a final.
Thank god there was some good news from Randwick on Saturday where my tip Denman stormed to victory in the small but competitive field of the Stan Fox Stakes. He shrank down to around 1.35 on the day so anyone who took my advice and gobbled him up at 1.50 on Friday or 1.60 earlier in the week should be smiling today. I take it my brandy is in the post. Thanks.
Unfortunately there was no double for my predictions at Randwick – the group 1 George Main Stakes was won by outsider Road to Rock – a 41.00-odd shout before the race, although Black Piranha and Onemorenomore, who I advised over favourite Racing to Win, were at least second and third respectively.
After the sweat and mud of the AFL grand final on Saturday we have the NRL equivalent to worry about next weekend with Melbourne booking their place in the big one against Parramatta after rolling over the Broncos 40-10 on Saturday.
Add to that a packed horse racing card which includes the Epsom Handicap at Randwick on Saturday, then we’ve got another powder keg week. We’re also less than 12 days away from the Caulfield Guineas. It’s getting serious now.
Read more »Manikato Stakes offers plenty of betting mysteries
September 25th, 2009 by adminThere’s a creeping sense of “they know something I don’t” this Thursday. Sometimes other horse racing punters still put me in a strop. Allow me to elaborate.
Tomorrow night it’s the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, as mentioned previously in the week. It’s a group 1 race with a strong field, not least Mic Mac, Memsie Stakes winner and all-round hot shot.
It’s also been wet at the track this week and as of Thursday it’s rated as a Dead 5. By all accounts it’s still chucking it down too. Mic Mac has a good record on such a surface, winning the Memsie on turf rated Dead.
However, it’s not him who is leading the online gambling markets – it’s Nicconi, currently on 4.40 with Mic Mac on 4.60 with IASbet.
I suppose you could point to the fact that Mic Mac’s last run was a 1600m – the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, where he was second. However, he’s never had a great problem with the 1200m – and was first in the 1200m Aurie’s Star Handicap in August on-yes, you guessed it, a dead track.
What of Nicconi? Granted this horse last won on a short 1000m on September 12 but the record book shows he’s never actually won at 1200m, so why has he edged in front? I have visions of men in dark coats around the back of stables whispering so quietly that not even Nicconi’s pointy ears can hear them.
Granted, it is a pretty open field, but if you feel Nicconi looks the better shout over Mic Mac, please spill the beans and let me know why. And don’t say you can feel it in your waters, that doesn’t wash with my cold British heart.
Besides that, I’m still cautiously going for Mic Mac on this one. But I’d keep it low. A Friday fling, if you will, before the weekend. After all about 500 stone of muscle is colliding in the AFL grand final on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, will also be taking a bashing as the MCG heaves with 100,000 fans.
Meanwhile I’ll keep my eye on Mic Mac and hope to learn something on Friday night. Turf’s up.
Read more »Who will like it wet at Moonee Valley on Friday?
September 23rd, 2009 by adminFriday night is race night this week – it’s also group 1 racing, in the shape of the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, where, by all accounts, it’s been chucking it down for about seven days now. Nothing like a track covered in drink to sort the men from the boys.
Yesterday it was rated a dead 5 with the barrier 2m out round the entire circuit after 14.5mm of rainfall in the previous week. More drizzle is expected throughout the rest of this week so it’s fair to say this isn’t likely to change much.
Enough of the forecasting – what does that actually mean for the field? Trainer Greg Eurell is set to have two running in this one – Mic Mac and the older and more experienced Apache Cat.
The statistics show Mic Mac doesn’t mind a dead track – he won on ‘D’ surfaces in the Memsie Stakes and Aure’s Star Handicap. On the other hand, Apache Cat, as far as I can see, has only ever won one race on a dead-rated track – the Blamey Stakes 3U Open back in 2007.
Phelan Ready is also running and needs to do well – he was controversially scratched from the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield on Saturday following a late vet’s call – but seemed fine afterwards. He needs a good run to stay on track to appear in the Caulfield Guineas proper but to date has not claimed a win on a dead-rated track – both his wins so far have come on ‘hard’ and ‘good’.
So, some early clues from cold, hard figures in tiny tables – thanks to Racing and Sports for the history lesson and the fading eyesight. As soon as the online horse racing betting odds come thorough for this one I’ll be all over it like a rash – and an early punt on Mic Mac might be a good move.
I’m afraid I should mention cricket again. After all, the ICC Champions Trophy is off and running today as if you hadn’t had enough from the World Twenty20, The Ashes and the seven-match ODI series with England. In most markets, including Centrebet, Australia are second favourites on about 4.25.
In my view this is a tad deceptive – the squad have been away from home for some five months and have been trying to play at their highest level almost constantly for the whole of that period. It doesn’t take a genius to work out what their energy levels are like – plus they’ve only just turned up in South Africa when most of the other sides have been acclimatising for days now. Ergo 3.25 on favourites South Africa and 5.00 on third favourites India looks more promising.
Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
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