Posts Tagged ‘Mr Clangtastic’
Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far
November 10th, 2009 by adminIt seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.
As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.
See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.
August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)
September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60
October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00
November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50
Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.
This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.
Read more »Saturday preview for (hopefully) rainy Randwick
October 3rd, 2009 by adminIt’s promising to be a spectacular spring Saturday at Randwick today. Yes, that’s right, it’s the weekend. Pleased to see me? You will be if I pick a crop of betting winners.
A quick summary for you. There are a whopping 10 races on at Randwick today, with five of them group 1. Weather is expected to be rainy following a few showers on Friday too.
Highlights include;
-The Epsom Handicap over 1600m. In here you will find one or two performers from the George Main Stakes, including winner Road To Rock and Black Piranha, second in last weekend’s race.
Last time I looked the betting for this one was very tight and generally looked ready to bite a chunk out of the backside of any passing punter. Rangirangdoo comes out as the favourite with IASbet, having dropped slightly, followed by Drumbeats on 4.80 and Road To Rock on 5.00. I’d avoid unless you know something I don’t but it may be worth a placings shot on O’Lonhro or Mr Baritone if a decent price is to be had.
-The Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m. A clear favourite here – Onemorenomore on 2.35 with IASbet. He’s taking a new path after he came third in the George Main Stakes last weekend, and is no longer off to the Caulfield Guineas but none the less looked good last time out. 2.35 or better seems sensible here.
-The Metropolitan over 2400m. Here I’d advise you to watch the weather and the track. Mr Clangtastic, on 5.50 with IASbet, likes the wet weather and a heavy track. If it’s wetter than the deep blue sea out there and your finest Wellingtons are looking brown this price looks good for him, although his trainer could have him scratched if the track is good. Also looking interesting here is Zavite for a possible placings shot, but bear in mind there’s an army of runners hovering around 14.00 to 24.00 ready to make you blush.
Good luck people. It’s very open today and I’ll be taking it easy. If it all flattens in the mud for you there’s always the NRL grand final betting markets, more on that tomorrow morning. Turf’s up.
Read more »NRL betting markets refuse to move, like a fat prop
October 2nd, 2009 by adminAs the week passes by it’s clear there’s going to be little movement in the NRL betting markets ahead of the grand final on Sunday.
If you ask me, I’m not a massive finals betting fan – because anything can happen in a final, and it frequently does. Knockout ties in general are very unpredictable – just look at what happened between St Kilda and Geelong in the recent AFL grand final. St Kilda were the marginal outsiders in the betting markets but looked like a good shout thanks to their form throughout the regular season. All was looking good until the end when the Cats pinched it and put a smile back on the face of the bookies. I was one of the ones left with a face like a smacked bum.
Anyway, that said, it’s a very miserable NRL betting fan who doesn’t have at least a little wager for the grand final.
Over at Betfair we see odds of 1.64 for Melbourne and 2.52 for Parramatta. Odds for the Storm have only hovered from about 1.70 to about 1.62, while the Eels started down at about 2.20 and rose somewhat before settling at 2.52 where they look likely to stay. Nothing remarkable about any of this and to be fair they were the best odds I could find on Thursday. Worth a small tickle on Parramatta perhaps, but more on this in the run-up to the final.
There’s a whopping 10 race card at Randwick on Saturday including the aforementioned Epsom Handicap. This is where I’ll be focussing most of my attention at the weekend, especially as mother nature is threatening to intervene.
Forecasts for Sydney today say sunshine and showers on Friday followed by the possibility of a deluge on Saturday. This poses some interesting questions in particular for The Metropolitan which features Mr Clangtastic, currently on 6.50 with Sportingbet.
I’ve picked him out because he has performed for me in the past, especially in the wet, winning the Wyong Cup. Trainer Marc Conners tends to watch the skies and sends him where the rain is but it may come to him on Saturday. So I’d have a wee wedge on that 6.50 now and do a rain dance.
Miss Marielle, will you marry me?
September 8th, 2009 by adminMonday’s are not once they were. At one time they were grey, dull, and bereft of optimism. Then I took up the task of crafting Australian horse racing tips and everything changed.
The first day of the week is now defined by the weekend’s horse racing – if my shouts for the weekend have come through, Monday is not blue, it’s green with dollars and smugness.
Let’s backtrack to Friday first, when the Wyong Gold Cup kicked off the weekend at Wyong. I went with Mr Clangtastic after his trainer switched him there at short notice as the rain fell on Thursday and he came through in fine style, 3.70 third favourite with Centrebet when I pointed him out.
As a side issue, the less said about my NRL shout for the Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time on Friday, the better. Cough cough. Moving swiftly on…….
Next the group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday provided the entertainment. Black Caviar was on 1.75 on Friday with Centrebet, but I urged a wad on this as she was likely to drop further. Ok, ok, so she did have one of those shaky starts of hers but she won it didn’t she? And she shrank to 1.45 with some bookmakers so no chuckling please.
Unfortunately it was a mighty tough one for her on Saturday and trainer Peter Moody has since revealed she could have sustained a injury with that dodgy start. I’m keeping my eyes on this as she looked a good shot for the Cox Plate and has already made friends with punters and hacked off the bookies with four wins in four.
There was less luck at the Makybe Diva Stakes on the same card at Flemington I’m afraid, but if I’d picked three tricky winners in a row people would be saying something was up. My shout was Heart of Dreams but outsider Vigor took the honours.
Then to the 1600m Chelmesford Stakes at Randwick – it was a tough one and O’Lonhro, the favourite, won it, with my ‘long shot’ shout Roman Emperor fifth.
But wait for it, who’s that in second? Miss Marielle, you beauty, my advice for a Friday placings bet on 6.33 with IASbet.
That’s a three out of four racing success rate for the weekend. It sounds better when I say “75 per cent”.
Tomorrow I’ll have a closer look at some of the midweek racing, and it’s about time I dipped into the tennis betting markets as the US Open hots up. Happy Monday from the Pom de Turf.
Read more »Wyong Gold Cup tipping is mighty close to call
September 4th, 2009 by adminThe Wyong weather means tipping fans may want to take an umbrella and a wad of cash to the Wyong Gold Cup on Friday, where the conditions make for some interesting betting.
It’s a very open field and an ideal chance to test your mettle ahead of Saturday’s Chemlsford Stakes at Randwick, which is shaping up very nicely indeed.
Among those who may like it wet at Wyong is Mr Clangtastic, at 3.70 with Centrebet, but he’s not the only one comfortable after bad weather. There’s been word on the web that Enzedex Eagle can also do well whatever happens with the climate.
Centrebet has Enzedex Eagle installed as the 3.00 favourite and Lodge the Deeds is the second favourite on 3.50 with the same bookmaker.
Yes, that’s three runners hovering between 3.00 and 3.70. Following this trio we’ve got Scarlet in at 9.00. Hence it’s a tricky one but given pretty much all his impressive stuff to date has come following wet weather if I had to I’d go with Mr Clangtastic.
If it starts to chuck it down again, please don’t be tempted by Thunder and Rain – all the way out at 151.00 with Centrebet, which is not worth the pun.
Casting the net to NRL betting now and on Friday the Bulldogs have the carrot of the minor NRL premiership if they can overcome Wests Tigers. The Tigers have rallied recently but lost last time out and so are out of the running for the finals.
It’s hard to see the Bulldogs not making it and you can get 1.92 for the Bulldogs to be leading at half-time and full-time with Betfair. On the other hand the Tigers can really play when they feel like it and will be keen to put on a show for the fans so Tigers at half-time and Bulldogs at full-time at 6.80 with Betfair also looks good.
Tomorrow there will be a few words on the Chelmsford Stakes and plenty more on the rest of Saturday’s racing. Happy Thursday turf lovers.
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