Posts Tagged ‘Parramatta Eels’
Rude results in the Randwick rain
October 6th, 2009 by adminWell done for Randwick on Saturday – if you even got in it was apparently a result given the fact the wet weather kept the attendance indoors and disappointed crowds at the gates. By all accounts it was just like England, no doubt I would’ve felt right at home.
The poor weather pretty much reflected my luck over the weekend, on the track at least, as the Spring Champion Stakes went to Monaco Consul, not Onemorenomore, and The Metropolitan went to Speed Gifted, which no matter how much I squint and how much I try to cajole the bookies, looks nothing like Mr Clangtastic.
Another poor showing on the track after a reasonable one the weekend before. Perhaps I’m best ignored every other Saturday, but I did warn Randwick looked like a nightmare given the openness of pretty much everything which went through the barriers. At least there’s the Caulfield Guineas to look forward to on Saturday, when superstars Trusting, Denman and Manhattan Rain will be in attendance. Plenty of reason to be cheerful with that lot tacking to the track.
Thankfully the main event of the weekend, the NRL grand final, came through for me. Yesterday I nudged and winked at 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points with IASbet, and so it came to pass as the Storm beat Parramatta by 23 points to 16. Just call me Nostradamus.
In reality it wasn’t written in stone but in the Eel’s game plan, which wasn’t its old self and was lacking the very best of fullback Jarryd Hayne, who needed to have a good day to see his side upset the odds. As a result Melbourne imposed themselves early on and were just too good to let the Eels pinch their second title in three years.
After the dust has settled it’s always worth having a cheeky peek at the NRL betting markets for next season, with Betfair saying the Eels can bounce back as favourites on 5.30 for 2010. Melbourne are just behind on 5.40 for their third title in four years.
Until next season for NRL but until tomorrow for me as I begin a frenzied and nervous build-up to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas.
Read more »NRL betting still favours a gathering Storm
October 4th, 2009 by adminAttention turns away from the track today for all but the most dedicated of turf fans. NRL grand final day is upon us, and we have a clear favourite in Melbourne Storm, who have been leading in the NRL betting markets all week.
As I said on Friday, every tipster under the sun has been going for the Storm over the Eels, and I see no reason to scream otherwise. Shopping around finds you 1.58 for Melbourne to 2.40 for The Eels with IASbet, and 3.20 for a Melbourne win by one to 12 points looks reasonable with the same bookmaker.
Anything can happen on finals day however, and for amusement only here are some classic NRL grand final upsets and nailbiters from over the years;
-Penrith Panthers 18 Sydney Roosters 6; 2003
Penrith shocked perhaps even themselves by getting two early tries to gain control of the game before a heroic defensive display saw them upset the odds and hold out for a win.
-Newcastle Knights 22 Manly 16; 1997
Underdogs Newcastle won the match at the death thanks to a try from winger Darren Albert. They’d unexpectedly started the game strongly but faced a Manly fightback and were behind for the majority of the game before late heroics.
Canberra 19 Balmain 14; 1989
Balmain led 12-2 at half-time and enjoyed the rub of the green before it came back at them in the second half in every sense. Steve Jackson scored the crucial final try for Canberra and wrote the game into the history books.
Still feeling confident? No? This is the problem with finals – the gods often come down and lend a hand. One thing is clear about today though – the result will depend on how Melbourne handle Eels fullback Jarryd Hayne, a nimble giant of a man who could pinch it from them if he’s even allowed a sniff of a half-decent day.
Enjoy the chaos from Sydney. Tomorrow I’ll be doing my usual round-up of the weekend and starting a monster build-up week for the Caulfield Guineas.
Read more »Pray for rain, racing punters
October 3rd, 2009 by admin‘Won’t blame it on myself. I’ll blame it on the weatherman’. Yes turf fans, late-90s pop is my get-out clause for tomorrow thanks to the unpredictable clouds gathering over Sydney on Friday.
Mr Clangtastic remains my shout in the Metropolitan at Randwick tomorrow but he could be pulled from the race if the heavens fail to open. Trainer Marc Conners has been quoted by AAP saying he’ll wait until the last possible moment before making a decision and if the track is good or better he probably won’t be running, such is his preference for the wet.
This begs the question, if he’s not in it, who is going to come out on top? Mr Clangtastic is currently on 5.50 with Sportsbet, while Speed Gifted is current favourite on 3.60 and Ready To Lift is on 6.00 and is my second shout.
I’m not planning to go mental tomorrow though – as the week has gone on the markets for both the ten-race card at Randwick and fixtures for Flemington have become more open and there’s plenty of bookie mantraps ready to chomp your wallet down to size tomorrow.
If you must have a swing at the Epsom Handicap Rangirangdoo has held firm all week and looks reasonable on 3.00 with Sportsbet.
Time to turn back to the NRL betting markets for Friday now, and naturally plenty of cash is going to be put down tomorrow before Sunday and could alter odds slightly, but I don’t expect the head-to-head odds to change much.
Betfair has Melbourne Storm as the favourites on 1.63 and Parramatta Eels are on 2.56. I’ve already said this week that finals betting gives me the creeps, but don’t be fooled by the fact Parramatta have been on a storming run – the Storm are still the better side from the season over all and can become the team of the decade if they win.
On Sunday I’ll make you feel green at the gills by taking you through some of the great NRL upsets, just to cause uncomfortable confusion, but tipsters everywhere are going for the Storm and I’m joining them.
Tomorrow I’ll be providing you with a Randwick overview before racing gets under way – just remember to watch the skies. Turf’s up.
Read more »NRL betting markets refuse to move, like a fat prop
October 2nd, 2009 by adminAs the week passes by it’s clear there’s going to be little movement in the NRL betting markets ahead of the grand final on Sunday.
If you ask me, I’m not a massive finals betting fan – because anything can happen in a final, and it frequently does. Knockout ties in general are very unpredictable – just look at what happened between St Kilda and Geelong in the recent AFL grand final. St Kilda were the marginal outsiders in the betting markets but looked like a good shout thanks to their form throughout the regular season. All was looking good until the end when the Cats pinched it and put a smile back on the face of the bookies. I was one of the ones left with a face like a smacked bum.
Anyway, that said, it’s a very miserable NRL betting fan who doesn’t have at least a little wager for the grand final.
Over at Betfair we see odds of 1.64 for Melbourne and 2.52 for Parramatta. Odds for the Storm have only hovered from about 1.70 to about 1.62, while the Eels started down at about 2.20 and rose somewhat before settling at 2.52 where they look likely to stay. Nothing remarkable about any of this and to be fair they were the best odds I could find on Thursday. Worth a small tickle on Parramatta perhaps, but more on this in the run-up to the final.
There’s a whopping 10 race card at Randwick on Saturday including the aforementioned Epsom Handicap. This is where I’ll be focussing most of my attention at the weekend, especially as mother nature is threatening to intervene.
Forecasts for Sydney today say sunshine and showers on Friday followed by the possibility of a deluge on Saturday. This poses some interesting questions in particular for The Metropolitan which features Mr Clangtastic, currently on 6.50 with Sportingbet.
I’ve picked him out because he has performed for me in the past, especially in the wet, winning the Wyong Cup. Trainer Marc Conners tends to watch the skies and sends him where the rain is but it may come to him on Saturday. So I’d have a wee wedge on that 6.50 now and do a rain dance.
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