Posts Tagged ‘St Kilda’
St Kilda a tempting prospect in the AFL betting markets
September 26th, 2009 by adminSaturday has some intriguing horse racing but much of the nation’s attention will inevitably be focused on the AFL grand final. If you’re looking for a short distraction from the track before the spring really gets hectic, where better to look than the MCG?
To recap, Geelong are facing St Kilda in a winner-takes-all battle which has already seen some interesting betting patterns. Despite the fact St Kilda were the form team throughout the regular season, Geelong opened up the online markets by instantly grasping the favourites tag.
As we speak they are still on 1.65 with Betfair compared to 2.48 for St Kilda. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are numerous. St Kilda did have a wee bit of a wobble towards the end of the conventional season, whereas Geelong were mighty impressive in their last preliminary final against Collingwood. Many therefore feel the wind is with the Cats.
If you’re going to force me to have an opinion, I’d say otherwise. Anything can happen in the final and St Kilda have been better overall throughout the season. By all accounts the weather is going to be rotten as well tomorrow, which may better suit St Kilda’s tough pressing approach. Like I said, it’s a final, so anything can happen, but I’d say St Kilda is the wiser move.
Back to the turf and we have the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick, featuring current Caulfield guineas favourite Denman. He’s only got four rivals at present in the 1400m run, although one of them is More Than Great. As such he’s on 1.45 with IASbet – which is actually looking pretty reasonable – if you can find 1.50-odd anywhere, I’d go with that, if not, take the 1.45. I actually mentioned this race earlier in the week and told you to slap something on Denman when he was up on 1.60 in some places. Pay attention.
There’s also the group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick, which is much harder to call. Racing To Win is the current favourite on 1.90 with Centrebet, but Onemorenomore is looking relatively reasonable on 4.75 and Black Piranha is 6.50. Racing To Win is going to be very hard to beat, but I don’t fancy those odds. A wee wedge on Black Piranha just for fun gets my shout.
Enjoy the (wet) weekend. Turf’s up people.
Read more »Manikato Stakes offers plenty of betting mysteries
September 25th, 2009 by adminThere’s a creeping sense of “they know something I don’t” this Thursday. Sometimes other horse racing punters still put me in a strop. Allow me to elaborate.
Tomorrow night it’s the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, as mentioned previously in the week. It’s a group 1 race with a strong field, not least Mic Mac, Memsie Stakes winner and all-round hot shot.
It’s also been wet at the track this week and as of Thursday it’s rated as a Dead 5. By all accounts it’s still chucking it down too. Mic Mac has a good record on such a surface, winning the Memsie on turf rated Dead.
However, it’s not him who is leading the online gambling markets – it’s Nicconi, currently on 4.40 with Mic Mac on 4.60 with IASbet.
I suppose you could point to the fact that Mic Mac’s last run was a 1600m – the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, where he was second. However, he’s never had a great problem with the 1200m – and was first in the 1200m Aurie’s Star Handicap in August on-yes, you guessed it, a dead track.
What of Nicconi? Granted this horse last won on a short 1000m on September 12 but the record book shows he’s never actually won at 1200m, so why has he edged in front? I have visions of men in dark coats around the back of stables whispering so quietly that not even Nicconi’s pointy ears can hear them.
Granted, it is a pretty open field, but if you feel Nicconi looks the better shout over Mic Mac, please spill the beans and let me know why. And don’t say you can feel it in your waters, that doesn’t wash with my cold British heart.
Besides that, I’m still cautiously going for Mic Mac on this one. But I’d keep it low. A Friday fling, if you will, before the weekend. After all about 500 stone of muscle is colliding in the AFL grand final on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, will also be taking a bashing as the MCG heaves with 100,000 fans.
Meanwhile I’ll keep my eye on Mic Mac and hope to learn something on Friday night. Turf’s up.
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