Posts Tagged ‘Thousand Guineas’
Melbourne Cup Racing Odds: Myer Classic For Politeness
August 21st, 2014 by Pom de TurfLook out for exciting 4-year-old Politeness in the 2014 Myer Classic: according to trainer Robert Smerdon her Spring Season will culminate in a run at Flemington on November 1st. But look out for her name in the Racing odds, too, as we go through the Melbourne Spring – she’s a horse that could be in with a shout in a few big races!
Politeness hadn’t had a run out since April, when she came home as a winner in the P.J. Bell Stakes. A barrier trial last week at Randwick – one that was a gentle run out, but that seemed to go well – has left Smerdon in good spirits, too, as the Melbourne Spring looms: ‘she had a Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Irish Lights and Melito shine through the pre-cup betting fog
October 15th, 2009 by adminIrish lights are shining today after the favourite lived up to her billing and clinched the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield earlier. I’m fairly pleased as well because Melito came second and ran a good race after I advised her for a placings bet if you could scrape decent value from somewhere.
Melito looked good towards the end too, ending up only a long neck behind and tantalising me with the belief that I might actually be able to successfully tip the Caulfield Cup on Saturday.
I puffed up my chest and settled into a comfort zone again before I properly examined the barrier draw for Saturday and realised everything had gone to pot again.
A number of the pre-draw favourites have drawn poorly, having only recently shuffled themselves to the top of the pecking order after it was revealed Speed Gifted will not be running on Saturday.
Depending on where you’ve been looking over the last four days you might have seen Speed Gifted, Predatory Pricer, Daffodil and Kirklees as the favourite for the $2.5 race. As we speak the bookies still can’t reach a consensus after Predatory Pricer drew barrier 16.
IASbet has Daffodil as the favourite on odds of 8.00 after a barrier four draw, with Kirklees, Cima De Triomphe and Predatory Pricer all tied on 8.50. I think that’s what’s known as ‘open’.
Over at Centrebet the current favourite is Kirklees on 7.50, while Daffodil is out on 11.00 here. Predatory Pricer is at 8.50, and just to rub salt into the wound there’s the ominous duo of Vigor and Allez Wonder, both on 10.00.
Clear as mud then. There are a couple of days left for this madness to settle but it’s fair to say it’s a mighty tough call.
I’ve heard one or two whispers online for Cima De Triomphe, but at this stage everyone is left looking at each other wondering what the hell just happened. Tomorrow and Friday I’ll be delving into the stats book in search of answers. Until then.
Read more »Pull-outs blow open the Caulfield Cup betting markets
October 14th, 2009 by adminWhen galloper Predatory Pricer got up off his considerable backside this morning and blinked open his big brown eyes, he was at best third favourite in the betting markets for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
By the time he’d relieved himself, been led out the stable and had a little run out, he was heading for the top of the betting after Speed Gifted was dropped out of the 2400m race to instead head off to the Cox Plate in the direction of the Melbourne Cup.
Punters keen on the half brother of Takeover Target will be hoping the bookmakers’ crown does not lie too heavy. He seemed to stubbornly wheel away in the wrong direction at one point this morning and didn’t look terribly chuffed to be up and out on the grass, but then again neither would I at that time of day. Jockey Steven King told the Herald Sun: “His form’s been outstanding even though he’s doing a lot wrong”. Outstanding and imperfect, much like me.
You can currently get 7.60 for him at Betfair, ahead of Vigor on 8.00, with the two joint favourites in other markets. Next in line is Cima De Triomphe at 9.00 and Daffodil completes the top pack at 13.00.
Ergo, Saturday is becoming a bit of a bear trap, but Vigor and Predatory Pricer do at least look in the right place at the top of the tree. More on his throughout the week.
Back to tomorrow’s diversion of the Thousand Guineas now. Irish Lights is still way out in front at 2.55 but Melito, trained by Gerald Ryan, is perhaps a bit on the high side at 10.00 in some markets earlier this week, now at 8.00 with Centrebet.
Betfair has her at a better 9.00 though, and she attracted a spike in punters cash with the bookmaker when easing up to 10.00 earlier in the week. She looks like more fun than a punt on Irish Lights if you are after something a bit more sexy, but if you’d rather play it safe with Melito go with a placings if you can find decent value.
Tomorrow’s race can act as a wind test for Saturday. Hopefully it’s blowing in my favour for what could be a gripping Caulfield Cup. Turf’s up.
Read more »Whobegotyou pays me back but Denman doesn’t deliver
October 13th, 2009 by adminWell Saturday didn’t disappoint as far as excitement goes. If you like a shock the Guineas at Caulfield was the place to be. Starspangledbanner outstripped four of the hottest youngsters in racing and made the bookies the main winners for the first major group 1 race of the spring.
Starspangledbanner burst away mighty fast and led the whole way, with Manhattan Rain the only one getting close and ending up in second. Denman, my shout, everybody’s shout, pretty much, was unplaced and was stuck three-wide through the hole thing, so we can probably let him off.
However, it was a nice, mean satisfying feeling to see Whobegotyou win the Yalumba Stakes on Saturday, not just because he was my tip for the race, but because he showed me up earlier on this year.
Last month he out-raced El Segundo, my shout in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, so he owed me big time and clearly felt guilty, starting at the back and edging ahead to break away and win it in the last 100. Jockey Damien Oliver also clocked up his 2000th win when he saved my blushes.
A mixed weekend again then but I’m fairly pleased with Whobegotyou. Saturday has nicely whetted my appetite for Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas as well, while of course we have the Caulfield Cup to deal with this Saturday.
The build-up machine has re-booted itself today, with much chatter over whether or not Speed Gifted, the current favourite, will actually appear. Trainer LeeFreedman has said he could be steered towards a Melbourne Cup attempt instead but the skies may decide it; the galloper tends to like the wet and the forecast for Saturday is rain so he may yet make it. We should find out tomorrow anyway.
Onwards, with cautious optimism and an umbrella.
Read more »The week ahead, including a World Cup betting blast
October 13th, 2009 by adminIt’s Sunday and whether or not you had any luck at Caulfield yesterday, there’s no time to waste; the racing is coming thick and fast now.
Wednesday sees Australia’s top fillies line up for the Thousand Guineas, again at Caulfield, with Irish lights leading the betting, on 3.00 with IASbet. On to Saturday and we’re at Caulfield again for the Caulfield Cup, where Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is the current favourite, on odds of 5.00 with Centrebet.
As with the Thousand Guineas, I’ll be spending the next few days picking through the hype and gripes surrounding these two races in the hope of steering you in the right direction.
As it’s Sunday today, however, I decided it was time for some light reading in the shape of a scan around the soccer betting markets for World Cup 2010.
Next year’s tournament is in South Africa and a number of big names have already qualified with room to spare, this includes Brazil, who have already won it five times in the past, and Spain, who dazzled with their passing game in winning Euro 2008.
England have also already qualified, as of course have Australia. Also already in the mix are Holland, who had a decent showing themselves at Euro 2008 before being surprisingly knocked out by Russia.
Pretty much everywhere you look at this early stage you find Spain and Brazil rightly out in front. Both have a very good chance next year, with Brazil winning the warm-up Confederations Cup in South Africa early this year. They are on 5.50, level with Spain, at IASbet, for next year.
Bafflingly, behind these two, come England as the 7.00 third favourites. Granted, they did have a good qualification campaign but their win against Croatia to seal the deal last month was against an under-strength side lacking the talents of Luca Modric. As such they have not faced a true test in a competitive match for a while and it’s bizarre that they are rated as more likely to win than Holland, on 12.00 with the same bookmaker.
A word for Russia here. Ok, they do have the odd strange performance but going forward they can be exhilarating and they were unlucky to go out to Spain in the Euro 2008 semi-finals after a very good tournament which saw them beat Holland. 26.00 therefore looks good for them at this stage with IASbet.
Until tomorrow, when I’ll be counting the mental cost of the weekend’s racing.
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