Posts Tagged ‘tipping’
Melbourne Cup Odds and Tips: The Foreign Legion Have Landed!
October 22nd, 2013 by Pom de TurfThe overseas horses making the journey to our shores in a bid to win the Race That Stops A Nation have landed, and it’s a strong international field that features more than a few horses that will be hopeful of landing the biggest prize in Australian racing.
There are plenty of Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Melbourne Cup Odds and Tips: Fawkner Tastes Victory
October 22nd, 2013 by Pom de TurfThere’s a new trophy in the Macedon Lodge cabinet this week, after Fawkner raced home to win the Caulfield Cup ahead of Dandino…
It’s the first time Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Focus on Brown Panther’s Melbourne Cup Odds and Tips
October 20th, 2013 by Pom de TurfWe love a horse with a famous owner, especially if it’s a potential winner of the biggest race on Australian soil. And Brown Panther qualifies on both scores…
First of all, the owner: Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Melbourne Cup Odds and Tips: High Hopes for Simenon
October 18th, 2013 by Pom de TurfWillie Mullins never intended Simenon to be a contender on the flat when he took him on as a five-year-old, but an aversion to the soft ground that is something of an inevitability in the British Jumps season has since set him on a different path. And that path might well have led him to the Melbourne Cup this November 5th.
Simenon won’t be Mullins’ first raid on the Australian Spring Carnival, and Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Melbourne Cup Odds and Tips: Green Moon Out of Caulfield Cup
October 17th, 2013 by Pom de TurfNeither Green Moon nor Sea Moon will run in this year’s Caulfield Cup, though Fawkner will carry the hopes of owner Lloyd Williams in the race.
It remains to be seen what effect Read the rest of this entry »
Read more »Two runners stand out in Winterbottom betting
November 25th, 2009 by adminSo The Winterbottom Stakes are nearly here, and the occasion is trying its best to be anything but a one (or two) horse race.
The race is a huge $500,000 affair, not bad for a 1200m run. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but pundits are swearing blind there are two runners in the big one that could well be strolling past the line with ease.
The jockey from Melbourne, Nash Rawiller, is going to be on Lucky Secret. And the good news for him is that he has been riding the same horse for his last three wins. However, there is another secret at The Winterbottom, namely Waratah’s Secret, another great little runner, to be run by Paul Harvey, who is no slouch by any means.
Waratah’s secret is a three year old, and one that has been totally spruced up energy wise by the trainer, one David Harrison. Harrison must be aiming high. It’s all gearing up to be a great race, but what about the results? What’s the score on this?
As regards Waratah’s Secret, IASBet has the young horse on at 4.40, which is hardly something to ignore. So everyone likes the Secrets, but some bookies are tipping it the other way, so we’ll give you more bang for your buck here, and name a couple of good options for you to consider come race day.
Apache Cat has been getting some favourable press recently. While Neil Evans from Centrebet names Danny Beau as a possible player. He’s on at 8.0.
You got all of that? I know, none the wiser. But give it a go. Maybe a few safe bets will involve the spilling of some Secrets…
Read more »Who will pinch the Winterbottom?
November 22nd, 2009 by adminIt’s interesting seeing which races are available when in the online betting markets – for example, the Melbourne Cup was up and running wager-wise months before the actual event took place, much as you would expect.
Saturday’s Railway Stakes was a different matter – even though it was the first main group 1 event since Cup week, the usual bookmakers didn’t open their betting on it until around Wednesday. Even Betfair and IASbet, who seem among the earliest with most races, didn’t get going on it properly until the middle of last week.
Strange then, that the Winterbottom Stakes, due to appear next Saturday, is already on the go over the web, and in some cases was up and running before bets were being processed on the Railway.
When I had a good root around on Saturday, before the Railway, you could get 4.20 for Warathas Secret at the top of the Winterbottom market at IASbet – while a number of runners who were due to feature in the Railway were in there at tempting prices.
All American, second favourite for the Railway most of the week, was on 31.00 for the Winterbottom, for example.
A point worth bearing in mind, and there will of course be more on the three-year-olds and up race at Ascot throughout the week.
Elsewhere, back with the soccer, all of the major European leagues have now passed the ten games played stage – always a good benchmark to decide who really is in and who is definitely out, when it comes to title races.
In the English Premier League betting markets, Chelsea, the current league leaders, are still the favourites, while Liverpool’s challenge is already all but dead and buried after a poor start.
Holders Manchester United have faltered of late while Arsenal have been growing slowly and steadily. Although there’s little to choose between them and United, points-wise anyway, Arsenal at the moment look like a side capable of powering through later in the season and providing some value – Betfair have them at 5.00 now and this could be the best value for a side which is not Chelsea- the Blues are far too low in many markets given how early in the season it still is.
Read more »Odds for Railway Stakes raiders could be deceptive
November 20th, 2009 by adminWelcome to Friday. Hello, fans of the Irish soccer team. Remember what I was saying earlier in the week about so much being at stake? Painfully demonstrated by Thierry Henry’s handball – but at least if you slapped some cash on under 1.5 goals going in during normal time you had something to take the edge off. For the record, if FIFA and France agree to replay the game, I’ll eat my South Africa 2010 wall chart.
Back to the racing, and much of the attention has been on the Railway Stakes at Ascot. The track press have had little else of this level to talk about since Melbourne Cup day, so it’s not surprising I’ve now got Saturday’s $1 million race flashing before my eyes in a thousand hypey headlines.
The line-up is a mixture of Perth local runners and eastern chances, some of whom will be lining up on Saturday chiefly because they were out of luck in Sydney and Melbourne over the spring.
Among them is the week-long favourite Gold Salute, on 3.20 with IASbet, having firmed from 4.00. This isn’t great value, with plenty of runners hovering highly ominously around the 9.00 to 14.00 mark. It’s worth remembering that while in the past many horses have headed west for this race with big billings and small odds, many of them have failed.
Besides this, any one of All American, Ortensia and Grand Nirvana are in with a very strong shout indeed, and if Sniper’s Bullet can negotiate the barrier 14 draw, he’ll be a dangerous one too.
All this doesn’t help I know, but there is value for Largo Lad, at 19.00, dropping from 26.00 with IASbet, and good at the mile. Megatic at 17.00 with the same bookmaker looks reasonable.
It’s a tricky one this, but if you cast your eyes to race 2 on the card for Ascot on Saturday you will find the Carlton Mid Handicap – Thorn Dancer is well fancied here and is a paltry 1.80 with IASbet – if you can find better than that this could be a good safety net.
Back on Sunday, turf’s up folks.
Read more »Highs, lows and nearly-theres – the story so far
November 10th, 2009 by adminIt seems so long now since I was sounding out Voice Commander in the Warwick Stakes back in August – a whole season of racing has thundered by since then, and all-in-all, besides some shocks, surprises and downright screw-ups, I’m pretty happy with my work for the spring. Not bad for a pom.
As it happens Voice Commander was one of my early tipping failures after Trusting overturned him – but thankfully I bounced back with Secret Flyer in the BC3 Future Stars.
See below a summary of some of my tipping successes over the last three months – along with the odds at the time I tipped them, where I recorded them, and a ‘P’ in brackets for successful placings shouts rather than when I picked a winner.
August
Secret Flyer – BC3 Future Stars – 2.70
Glowlamp – Intergaze Maiden Plate – 1.85 (grew to 2.25)
September
Denman – Golden Rose – 2.64
Mic Mac – Memsie – 3.00
Mr Clangtastic – Wyong Gold Cup – 3.70
Black Piranha – Danehill Stakes – 1.75
Miss Marielle (P) – Chelmsford Stakes – 6.33
Denman – Stan Fox Stakes – 1.60
October
Whobegotyou – Yalumba Stakes
Shamoline Warrior – Norman Robinson Stakes – 3.80
Roman Emperor (P) – Caulfield Cup – 6.00
Manhattan Rain (P) – Cox Plate – 6.00
November
Crime Scene (P) – Melbourne Cup – 12.50
Looking back over these, it doesn’t look to bad at all – and that Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup placings hat-trick shows I got into the swing of things and hit form at the right time. Of course, besides the successes listed here, there was also a good smattering of failure – in particular I was irked at the failure of Kirklees in the Caulfield Cup -but overall I’m happy with my handiwork.
This Saturday I’ll be hoping to carry my form into the meeting at Sandown, with the online bookmakers yet to open their markets for the day. Of special interest will be the Sandown Classic, which could be tricky because a number of horses with high profiles are appearing – but will be out of their usual comfort zones distance-wise. As such there’s the chance of an upset. Markets should be open Thursday-ish – I’ll keep you posted.
Read more »Emirates Stakes provides a fine send-off for carnival week
November 6th, 2009 by adminFlemington has certainly seen some emotion over the last week or so. And who’d bet against another roller-coaster ride this weekend as the Melbourne Cup Carnival comes to and end?
The golden egg evaded me on Tuesday when Shocking won the Melbourne Cup, rather than Roman Emperor or Viewed, but all in all, I can’t complain thanks to the performance of Crime Scene, who came second in the big one, or the showing of Faint Perfume in the Crown Oaks, who will have made many punters happy on Thursday if they managed to find decent value for her.
Faint Perfume was of course trained by Bart Cummings. Generally, over the last few weeks, if a horse has won a headliner, it’s been trained by Bart Cummings, bar the Melbourne Cup. Even though he’s put a smile on my face and on the faces of many others, I’m almost fed up with talking about him – but he is unavoidable. He is, quite simply, a legend. You don’t pick up the Caulfield Cup, the Cox Plate and the Crown Oaks, plus a fair few others, by getting lucky.
I quite fancy that run to continue on Saturday when the fun winds down with the group 1 1600m Emirates Stakes. The favourite all week has been So You Think – the Cummings three-year-old who won the Cox Plate last month. IASbet offered him at 3.00 when the betting opened earlier in the week, but that has since dropped to 2.90. Closest to this is Gold Salute, who is worth keeping an eye on – the same bookmaker opened this horse at 9.00 but it’s since plunged to 6.50.
As such we are forced to go hunting for value for the favourite – Betfair has him on 3.35 for the win and this is my shout as of Friday evening. Also of interest is the Patinack Farm Classic, where cult hero Apache Cat is appearing and is on 4.90 with Betfair – I’m not convinced this is that great given the hype and 3.85 for favourite All Silent looks a bit better. Depending on how your week has gone, the pain or joy is almost at an end. I’ll be back next week to tell you which one I’m feeling.
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