Posts Tagged ‘tipping’
Payne’s racing record speaks for itself chaps
October 1st, 2009 by adminWhether or not you’ve got money on El Segundo in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, you’d have to be pretty cold-hearted not to have a soft spot for him.
Piloting the 2007 Cox Plate winner is female jockey Michelle Payne – called in by trainer Colin Little due to a suspension handed to Luke Nolen.
The 24-year-old has won more than 400 races and will probably see Saturday as one of the biggest opportunities of her life. Mainly because she is a woman.
Despite her success and wealth of experience, which includes riding in England, Ireland and France, news of her scheduled appearance on Saturday is greeted with welcome surprise by the media, because, despite the progress made by the sport in recent years, Payne is still something of a rarity.
The Pom De Turf is in philosophical mood on this otherwise unremarkable Wednesday afternoon. Bear with me.
In my homeland racing is seen as a still-successful sport but one with an uncertain future – beyond the likes of the Grand National and Ladies’ Day at Ascot, racing is still associated with old men in smoky rooms by a lot of people.
To safeguard the long-term future of the sport, this has to change and female jockeys are very much part of that important pattern of change. That’s why even if El Segundo beats my tip on Saturday I won’t cry over spilt dollars.
[Removes elbow-padded jacket] Right, onto the betting for the Turnbull Stakes.
As it happens Payne says Flemington is her favourite course and she already has form with El Segundo, having piloted him to his maiden win. He’s currently on 10.00 with IASbet and will likely drop before the race – there are four horses ahead of him in the betting at the moment, but if you fancy a punt in solidarity the time is very much now.
Predatory Pricer is the current favourite, but only just, on 4.60, with Vigor right behind him on 4.80. Then comes Maldivian on 5.50. Too close to call right now and a placings bet might be more worthwhile come Friday, then again it might not, I’ll update on this later in the week.
Now I’m off to join old men in a smoky room to watch the action from Moonee Valley. Just kidding, thank god.
Read more »Picking over the past for Epsom Handicap betting clues
September 30th, 2009 by adminI fear Anthony Cummings has been in cahoots with the US military. Only by way of some pioneering technology have the horse trainer’s charges been slipping under the radar lately, and it must be costing some punters big time.
I’m carefully picking over the corpse of the George Main Stakes today, fingering the debris to try and figure out what went wrong.
If I could I’d don my wellies and trudge along the track at Randwick, peering at the scarred turf for clues, but I fear the stewards would throw me off. Not for behaving oddly, but for reeking of post-loss brandy which drowned my tears on Saturday night.
Anyway, the George Main was won by the Cummings-trained Road To Rock, who was hovering around 40.00 before the race and beat off the sub-2.00 favourite Racing To Win, plus my shout Black Piranha, who was second.
I know what you’re thinking – ancient history now, forget it and look to the Epsom on Saturday. Trouble is, I’ve just realised two things;
1.Road To Rock is in the Epsom on Saturday
2.This is not the first time an Anthony Cummings horse has pulled off an upset
Cummings also trains Turffontein, who gobbled up the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield last week as a 15.00 shot, so the warning signs are obvious.
The man is on a roll and must be a master of deception. Therefore at this early stage the bookies are all cautious for the 1600m Epsom and have Road To Rock on 6.00 joint second favourite alongside Drumbeats. The spelling nightmare of Rangirangdoo is the favourite on 3.80, with IASbet.
Thankfully Black Piranha, one of my soft spots, is up on 8.50 with the same bookmaker despite an impressive second to the upstart on Saturday.
Matters are somewhat clouded further by some amusing and insightful comments by trainer Gai Waterhouse, who wins the unofficial quote of the week award.
“The system at the moment is buggered”, she said via AAP of the Epsom handicapping set-up, demanding more of a “sliding scale”.
With that nugget in mind, I’ll be tracking the horse racing betting markets for the Epsom throughout the week and will also be swotting up on the NRL grand final to ensure my system isn’t buggered by the weekend.
Read more »Denman ends my losing streak in fine style
September 29th, 2009 by adminIt turns out pretty much nobody was right about the Manikato Stakes at a damp Moonee Valley on Friday night. Now no-one is happy. Last time in a while I get mixed up in a race like that.
Danleigh took the honours. Who? I know. A 17.00 outsider. The favourite, Nicconi, was third and my shout Mic Mac ended up in fifth. So I look daft but so do all the weirdos who shunned Mic Mac in favour of Nicconi. Let that be a lesson to both of us. Now let’s move on.
Saturday’s hotly-anticipated NFL grand final did go the way of the favourite – in this case Geelong Cats, who won 80 to 68 over St Kilda, although at least St Kilda were making a damn good show of it until a goal in the final seconds robbed the outsiders at the last. Well, I did warn you anything can happen in a final.
Thank god there was some good news from Randwick on Saturday where my tip Denman stormed to victory in the small but competitive field of the Stan Fox Stakes. He shrank down to around 1.35 on the day so anyone who took my advice and gobbled him up at 1.50 on Friday or 1.60 earlier in the week should be smiling today. I take it my brandy is in the post. Thanks.
Unfortunately there was no double for my predictions at Randwick – the group 1 George Main Stakes was won by outsider Road to Rock – a 41.00-odd shout before the race, although Black Piranha and Onemorenomore, who I advised over favourite Racing to Win, were at least second and third respectively.
After the sweat and mud of the AFL grand final on Saturday we have the NRL equivalent to worry about next weekend with Melbourne booking their place in the big one against Parramatta after rolling over the Broncos 40-10 on Saturday.
Add to that a packed horse racing card which includes the Epsom Handicap at Randwick on Saturday, then we’ve got another powder keg week. We’re also less than 12 days away from the Caulfield Guineas. It’s getting serious now.
Read more »Manikato Stakes offers plenty of betting mysteries
September 25th, 2009 by adminThere’s a creeping sense of “they know something I don’t” this Thursday. Sometimes other horse racing punters still put me in a strop. Allow me to elaborate.
Tomorrow night it’s the 1200m Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, as mentioned previously in the week. It’s a group 1 race with a strong field, not least Mic Mac, Memsie Stakes winner and all-round hot shot.
It’s also been wet at the track this week and as of Thursday it’s rated as a Dead 5. By all accounts it’s still chucking it down too. Mic Mac has a good record on such a surface, winning the Memsie on turf rated Dead.
However, it’s not him who is leading the online gambling markets – it’s Nicconi, currently on 4.40 with Mic Mac on 4.60 with IASbet.
I suppose you could point to the fact that Mic Mac’s last run was a 1600m – the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, where he was second. However, he’s never had a great problem with the 1200m – and was first in the 1200m Aurie’s Star Handicap in August on-yes, you guessed it, a dead track.
What of Nicconi? Granted this horse last won on a short 1000m on September 12 but the record book shows he’s never actually won at 1200m, so why has he edged in front? I have visions of men in dark coats around the back of stables whispering so quietly that not even Nicconi’s pointy ears can hear them.
Granted, it is a pretty open field, but if you feel Nicconi looks the better shout over Mic Mac, please spill the beans and let me know why. And don’t say you can feel it in your waters, that doesn’t wash with my cold British heart.
Besides that, I’m still cautiously going for Mic Mac on this one. But I’d keep it low. A Friday fling, if you will, before the weekend. After all about 500 stone of muscle is colliding in the AFL grand final on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, will also be taking a bashing as the MCG heaves with 100,000 fans.
Meanwhile I’ll keep my eye on Mic Mac and hope to learn something on Friday night. Turf’s up.
Read more »Denman to check in on Saturday as Guineas betting starts to firm
September 24th, 2009 by adminIt’s check-up time on Saturday for a colt who could make some of us very happy in 11 days – Caulfield Guineas betting favourite Denman.
He’s off to the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick and could face a rather skinny field as there are only six nominations. However, among them will be More Than Great, trained by David Payne.
Denman will be familiar to many horse racing punters having already stormed to victory in the $1 million Golden Rose last month and is currently on odds of 3.80 for the October 10 Caulfield Guineas with IASbet.
He’s also now looking worthwhile for a wedge at 1.50 for the 1400m Stan Fox Stakes on Saturday, with More Than Great on 2.70 with IASbet.
Denman is trained by Peter Snowden, who has said recently he may not run another of his charges, Demerit, in the Guineas even though he won the Prelude. This means he could end up pinning his Guineas hopes solely on Denman, who currently has three truly stand-out rivals for the headliner.
Trusting is now just behind him on 4.20, with IASbet, So You Think is on 7.50 and Manhattan Rain stands on 8.50. Demerit follows on 14.00, but bearing in mind Snowden’s comments this week, may not appear, which leaves us with four current stand-outs for the Guineas.
Of those, Manhattan Rain has been the one lacking in va-va-voom overall, although the colt’s talent is undoubted. He was widely tipped for the Guineas Prelude on Saturday but only managed third.
Arguably, and slightly unscientifically, this leaves us with three hotties at this stage of the Guineas betting. Therefore Saturday is crucial for Denman and for punters – a strong showing and we may see him break away and shrink that 3.80. Am I nudging and winking at my first early shout for the season’s head liners? Yes I am.
Some brief NRL news for you now, where with the two preliminary finals appearing on Saturday there’s many a nail to be bitten. The second on Saturday sees the Brisbane Broncos take on Melbourne Storm and the Broncos are on 3.00 as the outsiders with Sportingbet. However, they are set to be missing Peter Wallace and this looks hardly generous. More on this later in the week.
Read more »Trusting could repay your faith if you are fast enough
September 19th, 2009 by adminTomorrow will be very much ‘crunch time’ for a number of horses and also a nail-biter for plenty of horse racing punters, given the state of some of the odds about today, but fear not. The Pom de Turf is here to hold your hand and offer nervous words of encouragement.
Think of me as your mum telling you that injection isn’t going to hurt one bit – in reality it may sting but my words should at least stop you worrying until it’s time to roll up your sleeve/get your wallet out.
First I’m going to the Gunieas Prelude at Caulfield. The Guineas itself isn’t until October 10 but the distance of the Prelude is only 200m short of it’s big brother so it’s a reliable guide.
All eyes will be on star colts Trusting and Manhattan Rain. Unless you’ve had your head buried in concrete for the last 12 months, you should have heard of Manhattan Rain. He’s one of the most valuable horses in the Southern Hemisphere and is trained by Gai Waterhouse, who has been putting him up there with the best she’s ever seen, and she knows what she’s talking about.
Trusting already has the group 2 Warwick Stakes in the locker this season and has been looking mighty impressive. Now here’s the catch. As of Friday both horses were joint favourites with Centrebet on 4.25. Don’t ask me to call that one – but salvation is at hand – IASbet has Trusting edged ahead in the betting to 3.80 so that 4.25 for Trusting with Centrebet is my shout.
So to the group 1 1800m Underwood Stakes, also at Caulfield tomorrow, where we have Whobegotyou, Typhoon Tracy and Vigor, plus Heart of Dreams in the running. Typhoon Tracy has drawn a pants barrier 16, and with Whobegotyou looking awesome in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday, it’s hard to look past him for the win. His odds are predictably skinny though, but 2.86 with Betfair doesn’t look so bad, so I’d go with that.
It’d be rude not to mention Saturday’s AFL tie – Geelong versus Collingwood at the MCG in the last hurdle before the AFL grand final. Collingwood have much the younger team and have plenty out injured, while Geelong overturned them earlier in the season and are looking confident. Therefore Geelong are the smart move with Betfair, but 1.42 is the best they can manage – perhaps worth waiting until after the game to get some decent early final odds.
Turf’s up. Enjoy the weekend.
Read more »Whobegotyou? He did, apparently
September 15th, 2009 by adminSometimes, with all the research, instinct, and will in the world, you just have to stick your hands up and say “that’s tough”.
Such is my mood this morning after Whobegotyou blew the opposition away and shrank his Cox Plate horse racing odds at the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He was a length ahead of Mic Mac, who before this race had won everything he’d entered, bar one, and Singapore mare Jolie’s Shinju, who was my shout for an outside bet for the race. My call El Segundo did me the honour of finishing fifth. Thanks for nothing.
Whobegotyou was the favourite ahead of the race but few could have predicted just how strong he would be in those last 20 seconds. Impressive to say the least.
As mentioned on Friday this race normally gives strong pointers as to who is going to do well in the Cox Plate and unsurprisingly the bookmakers were quick off the mark after Whobegotyou made me look like a donkey on Saturday.
A quick look round Monday’s horse racing betting markets shows Whobegotyou on 3.50 with Betfair for the October 24 Plate, with El Segundo on 9.60. Interestingly Betfair has Jolie’s Shinju out on 17.50 for the Moonee Valey big one despite the strong showing at the weekend, so perhaps worth a small interest now?
Elsewhere Centrebet has whacked Whobegotyou down to 3.50 as well and, there you go, has Jolie’s Shinju down to 11.00. IASbet also has Whobegotyou on a skinny 3.20 and Jolie’s Shinju on 12.00 with El Segundo on the same odds.
To top off a weekend that makes last week’s 75 per cent success rate look a distant dream, Collingwood overturned Adelaide in their AFL finals week two clash thanks to John Anthony’s last-minute goal from a free kick.
That’s the way the credibility cookie crumbles. Anyway, onward to the midweek racing and I’ll be keeping an eye on the Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap at Newcastle on Wednesday as another Cox Plate contender, Black Piranha, is making an appearance.
No-one said it would be easy. Onwards with belligerence, turf fans.
Read more »Cox Plate betting clues at Moonee
September 12th, 2009 by adminThe most intriguing horse racing betting market of the weekend is still the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley – which can show us the way to the Cox Plate winner if history is anything to go by.
With crucial AFL finals games also on the calendar the Pom de Turf is feeling a bit flustered with excitement. Nothing for it but to lazily stretch and stick my neck out.
Just briefly, is it just me who finds the name ‘Moonee Valley’ amusing? If anyone can enlighten me on the real (and no doubt thoroughly serious) story behind the course’s title, please feel free to leave a comment.
Anyway, first to the aforementioned $500,000 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes, which is a group 2 1,600m affair. Like quite a few races at this time of year, its significant not just because of the strong field, but because it normally provides clues as to which horses could stand out in certain headliners later in the season. In this case, the Cox Plate.
El Segundo, appearing tomorrow, won both this race and the Plate in 2007 and has so far been looking good. As a result he’s well in the betting and is the 5.50 third favourite with Betfair.
Second favourite at the moment is Mic Mac, on 4.00 with the same bookmaker and who I discussed in depth yesterday. He’s got seven wins from eight starts but faces his toughest test yet on Saturday, and his only loss came at his only previous attempt at this distance.
Leading the betting is Whobegotyou, who is on 2.60 with the same bookmaker, has a great record on this course and is known for strong finishes at this distance. However, this price makes El Segundo’s 5.50 look like a much better shot and that’s who I’d recommend for the win. As an outside bet, the obvious candidate is Singapore star Jolie’s Shinju on 9.00 with Betfair.
On to the AFL week two finals now and on Saturday Adelaide take on Collingwood, with the former having the better recent head-to-head record for this one, and they have also had two extra days rest. However, it’s tricky to find good value – 1.76 with Betfair on Adelaide is probably your best shot.
Here’s hoping last weekend’s tipping was not just a one-off. Enjoy Saturday turf fans.
Read more »Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
Read more »Murray madness, Moonee Valley betting and a look at the NRL and AFL finals
September 11th, 2009 by adminMy street cred in the online tennis betting world is in tatters this morning thanks to Andy Murray, who was looking quite plausible for the US Open on 4.00 with Canbet yesterday.
That was until he decided to implode against Marin Cilic in the fourth round and go down in straight sets. Cheers Andy.
Looking on the bright side, Rafael Nadal looked much better in his own fourth round clash with Gael Monfils, showing little signs of his injury troubles to win in four sets. He’s since shrunk to 5.00 for the tournament with Canbet, which is still looking reasonable against Roger Federer’s measly 1.62.
Back to the horse racing tipping now and my hunch, Wanna Play Doctor, note ‘hunch’ that’s H-U-N-C-H, came fourth in the Perth Racing Tv Handicap at Belmont Park on Wednesday. His record is still one win and a fourth place in three starts.
Elsewhere and looking ahead to the weekend racing I’m already intrigued by the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Lining up are two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, the former of which has a great record at this venue, not least the Cox Plate itself in 2007. Whobegotyou is last season’s Caulfield Guineas winner and both are at the top of this year’s Cox Plate betting. I’ll be keeping an eye on these two and rest of the field going into the end of the week.
Now on to the markets for the AFL and NRL finals, which are all over the place as the week’s build-ups gather place.
To summarise, the AFL semis are on Friday and Saturday, with Western Bulldogs (1.25) taking on Brisbane Lions (4.00) and Collingwood Magpies (2.12) against Adelaide Crows (1.73), with current odds from Centrenbet.
With the NRL finals, week one starts on Friday with Storm v Sea Eagles, then Saturday sees Titans v Broncos and Bulldogs v Knights, followed by Dragons v Eels on Sunday. Overall current favourites are St George on 3.25, with Melbourne Storm on 5.50. I’ll be monitoring the team news as it happens this week before casting my hat into the ring.
There you go, four sports in one post, that should make you feel better after Murraygate.
Read more »- 2023
- 2022
- - June
- 2018
- 2017
- 2016
- 2015
- 2014
- 2013
- 2012
- 2011
- 2010
- 2009
- 2000