Posts Tagged ‘Trusting’
Caulfield Guineas betting could be influenced by media cauldron
October 8th, 2009 by adminConfidence is starting to bubble nicely ahead of the Caulfied Guineas on Saturday, and so is the steaming pot of media coverage for the first big group 1 event of the season.
Rather like two boxing promoters talking up their man before a fight, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings have been chewing the fat with the press over the chances of Manhattan Rain and So You Think.
”He’s so exciting this colt. You wait. He’s ready to run the race of his life on Saturday,” Waterhouse told The Age, with Cummings pitching in with ”that’s not a worry at all. He’s pretty smart this horse,” when asked about So You Think’s drop down from his 1800m Gloaming Stakes win to the 1600m of the Guineas.
Both are reckoning without the much-hyped duel of Trusting and Denman living up to its billing, which is already threatening to eclipse the fact that Saturday’s race is brimming with more than just two fresh talents. While Trusting is probably the most exciting colt in the country at the moment, Manhattan Rain is the most valuable and Denman is the most in-form. So You Think is lightly raced but mighty promising, particularly when you take in the fact Cummings has already trained six winners of this race.
IASbet still has Denman out as the favourite on 2.70 today, with Trusting on 4.80. So You Think is on 8.00 now having at one stage stood at 10.00, while Manhattan Rain is on 6.00 still.
The weather is already playing a part. Torrential rain at Caulfield, where both Cummings and Waterhouse have been preparing their entries, meant their training schedules had to be tweaked. Manhattan Rain is expected to be worked harder on Thursday after a sodden surface disrupted his plans earlier in the week.
The Saturday forecast so far for Melbourne? Sunny and 18 degrees centigrade. Hopefully it won’t rain on my parade either.
Read more »The Caulfield Guineas for dummies
October 7th, 2009 by adminToday’s post begins the countdown in earnest to Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas by guiding the numskulls and novices among us through what will happen on Saturday. I like to call it ‘The Caulfield Guineas for Poms, Plonkers and Pre-Post Punters’. Listen carefully, lest you end up still in the second category come race day.
In latest developments the barrier draw went off on Tuesday and saw Denman and Trusting drew seven and ten respectively, which did nothing to alter their position at the top of the online horse racing markets.
There’s some minor variation out there at this still relatively early stage. Betfair has got Denman on 2.82, with Trusting on 4.70. Over at IASbet the same pair are on odds of 2.70 and 4.80 respectively.
There are two others which are well in the mix – Manhattan Rain, on 6.80 and So You Think on 8.80, both with Betfair, and after this the closest chance is Starspangledbanner on 14.50.
1600m is the distance and the prize pot is a cool $1 million, but the Guineas is about much more than cash, despite what its name might suggest to the layman. It’s an Australian horse racing event which dates back to 1881 and which actually drew its influence from England, namely the 2,000 Guineas Classic, which also means set weights – a rarity in Australian thoroughbred racing. The first-ever winner was Wheatear and it’s been run every year since, with Whobegotyou claiming the glory last year.
So much attention is focussed on Trusting and Denman because they are widely seen as two of the brightest colts in Australian racing, and both are in fine form; Denman will make it seven wins in a row if he wins on Saturday.
Unless you’ve been in a bunker filled with jelly for the last six months, you should also know it’s the first truly major group 1 event of the spring and as such can be a useful guide for those wondering how the runners will do throughout the rest of the campaign.
I’ll be watching the build-up like a hawk and bringing you all the market movements throughout the week, brandy in hand, cash in a tight fist, which may only get tighter as the days tick by. We shall see.
Read more »Denman to check in on Saturday as Guineas betting starts to firm
September 24th, 2009 by adminIt’s check-up time on Saturday for a colt who could make some of us very happy in 11 days – Caulfield Guineas betting favourite Denman.
He’s off to the group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick and could face a rather skinny field as there are only six nominations. However, among them will be More Than Great, trained by David Payne.
Denman will be familiar to many horse racing punters having already stormed to victory in the $1 million Golden Rose last month and is currently on odds of 3.80 for the October 10 Caulfield Guineas with IASbet.
He’s also now looking worthwhile for a wedge at 1.50 for the 1400m Stan Fox Stakes on Saturday, with More Than Great on 2.70 with IASbet.
Denman is trained by Peter Snowden, who has said recently he may not run another of his charges, Demerit, in the Guineas even though he won the Prelude. This means he could end up pinning his Guineas hopes solely on Denman, who currently has three truly stand-out rivals for the headliner.
Trusting is now just behind him on 4.20, with IASbet, So You Think is on 7.50 and Manhattan Rain stands on 8.50. Demerit follows on 14.00, but bearing in mind Snowden’s comments this week, may not appear, which leaves us with four current stand-outs for the Guineas.
Of those, Manhattan Rain has been the one lacking in va-va-voom overall, although the colt’s talent is undoubted. He was widely tipped for the Guineas Prelude on Saturday but only managed third.
Arguably, and slightly unscientifically, this leaves us with three hotties at this stage of the Guineas betting. Therefore Saturday is crucial for Denman and for punters – a strong showing and we may see him break away and shrink that 3.80. Am I nudging and winking at my first early shout for the season’s head liners? Yes I am.
Some brief NRL news for you now, where with the two preliminary finals appearing on Saturday there’s many a nail to be bitten. The second on Saturday sees the Brisbane Broncos take on Melbourne Storm and the Broncos are on 3.00 as the outsiders with Sportingbet. However, they are set to be missing Peter Wallace and this looks hardly generous. More on this later in the week.
Read more »Guineas confusion reigns thanks to Demerit
September 22nd, 2009 by admin<!– @page { size: 21cm 29.7cm; margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } –>
Thankfully I’m not the only one wondering what the hell just happened today. There are a fair few trainers and owners scratching their heads as well, which makes me feel a bit better. For Saturday, my friends, was again not the finest hour for many horse racing betting lovers.
Trusting and Manhattan Rain looked set to dominate the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield but both were outsmarted by Demerit, who was out on about 8.00 to 9.00 before the race. Trusting, my shout with Centrebet, ended up a close second, with Manhattan Rain in third.
The race was supposed to give us some early clues as to the winner of the Caulfield Guineas next month but instead has left it as wide open as ever. As a result the betting for the Guineas has gone all goo-gah. Demerit has climbed and is on 20.00 with Betfair – which is pretty high compared with some other bookmakers, so this may be a worth a little shot now if the Guineas is very much your thing. Denman remains the favourite on 4.30 while Manhattan Rain is on 10.50 with the same bookmaker.
More despair was to be had in the Underwood Stakes where Heart of Dreams took all the glory, with my shout, Whobegotyou, also in second in this one too. No joke’s about a “bet for a second” button for my winner tips please. It could be worse, I could have tipped star mare Typhoon Tracy, who ended up in eighth. Phew.
The Underwood, like the Prelude, was also meant to help us out ahead of another big one – The Cox Plate. But it’s all as clear as mud for this one as well now. Centrebet still has Whobegotyou as the favourite on 4.00, while Heart of Dreams is now on 11.00.
Thankfully there was some salvation to be had from Geelong versus Collingwood in the last AFL prelim final on Saturday, with the Cats triumphing to book their place in the final. Their odds shrank big style quickly afterwards so hopefully you took my advice to slap something on them early for the final.
We must look forward, like a galloper wearing five inch-wide blinkers. There is plenty to come this week – not least the Manikato Stakes on Friday night. After all, I’m still learning here and we’ve still not had one of the true season headliners yet. Hope springs internal.
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