Posts Tagged ‘Viewed’
The ‘battle with Bart’ dominates Melbourne Cup betting
November 2nd, 2009 by adminTwo prevailing themes are now apparent as we enter the final hours before the biggest horse racing event of the season.
Firstly, the media build-up and the betting are being dominated by Bart Cummings – he who has trained 12 Melbourne Cup winners and dominated group 1 events this season.
Secondly, we have the emergence of five or six horses from the rest of the field. It’s a clear gap, with half a dozen runners all over the tipping columns and a distinct lack of talk about the other 18 runners in the field.
Pull up a chair, allow me to re-fill my pipe and I’ll try to take us through both of these issues before we hopefully come out with a good overview of what will happen at Flemington on Tuesday.
Firstly, dear Bart has three runners in the field and is coming in off the back of a spring where he has trained winners left, right and centre. As of Monday evening his three chances, Viewed, Allez Wonder and Roman Emperor, were the 4.80 favourite, a 31.00 shot and 8.50 third favourite respectively with Sportsbet.
Such is the anxiety over the presence of Cummings’ trio of chances that Sportsbet has developed the ‘Second Cummings’ offer – whereby if a Bart Cummings horse wins and your horse comes second you get your money back – with a $100 maximum refund.
While Allez Wonder will have to up her game considerably to pull out a win, Viewed and Roman Emperor are both genuinely likely to be there or thereabouts. As such a modest insurance wager for Viewed might be a good idea as value is likely to be poor at this stage – while Roman Emperor is looking good for something heavier at 9.60 with Betfair.
So is all the talk about Bart a little over the top? Not when you consider Viewed has already won the Caulfield Cup this year. And the Melbourne Cup last year. However, Bart’s last win in the Cup was 10 years ago in 1999 with Rogan Josh.
Still, even if you fancy Alcopop at 6.00 with Betfair, or Shocking on 11.00, do you feel comfortable not backing Bart? I don’t and will be insuring accordingly.
Outside of aforementioned Roman Emperor, Viewed, Alcopop, Shocking and Daffodil at 16.00, the field, in my view, is of limited quality. However, there are some very interesting placings bets of decent value. Jockey Glen Boss has won this race three times in a row from 2003 to 2005 on Makybe Diva and is piloting Changing of the Guard at 7.40 for the placings with Betfair. Elsewhere there’s 12.50 for promising Godolphin horse Crime Scene. And if you’ve not quite had enough of Bart, Allez Wonder is 9.80 to make the placings.
It all comes down to this. A simple battle with Bart. Turf’s up.
Read more »The Melbourne Cup by numbers
November 1st, 2009 by adminI’m reaching for the stats book again this Sunday. Granted the horse racing records at Racing and Sports don’t make for such a light piece of reading but I’ve always felt numbers can provide you with some clarity where there otherwise seems to be none.
Take 13 for example. Unlucky for some, but possibly not for Bart Cummings. The master trainer has trained 12 winners of the Melbourne Cup and is going for 13 on Tuesday. With the form he is in, do you dare bet against him? He could have six runners in Flemington’s big one, with three guaranteed a place. That’s what’s known as ‘hedging your bets’ and the great granddad of Aussie racing has Viewed in the race, a 5.50 shot with IASbet and second favourite with this bookmaker. Beware the Bartman.
Next we move to 16. The letter T has been the first letter of a Melbourne Cup winner 16 times – the most common winner’s initial. This year we have Think Money. Odds: 301.00 with IASbet. Think I’ll leave that one.
Also 1,000,000 – the amount in dollars Australian media mogul Kerry Packer supposedly had on the horse Might and Power at about 6.00 when it won in 1997. Unless you are also a ludicrously wealthy media mogul, I advise you not to bet this much on Tuesday.
Then to 68 – the weight in Kilos of the heaviest-weighted Melbourne Cup winner – Phar Lap in 1931. By comparison current favourites Viewed and Efficient are packing 58kg on Tuesday – ten kilos less.
What about 45,375? – the amount in dollars connections had to stump up yesterday by way of a final acceptance fee for the race. That’s for each horse by the way. Think training/ownership looks easy? Who cares because it’s bloody expensive.
Finally we have 78. This is the number of tears I’ll cry and the number of brandy shots I’ll sink if I don’t manage to tip at least something on Tuesday. It’s also the predicted number of abusive emails I’ll get if my current fancy Kirklees doesn’t make the placings. Overall I feel I have had a respectable spring so far. Here’s hoping Bart Cummings doesn’t pap all over it this week. Until Tuesday morning. Don’t forget to bunk off work, turf fans.
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