Unpicking those endless horse racing statistics
September 11th, 2009 by admin“Lies, damn lies and statistics”, as former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said, referring to the way numbers can be scewed to bolster a particular argument.
No doubt it has not escaped your attention that horse racing betting is crammed with statistics. It’s obsessed with them. Wins, losses, placings, performances in the wet, the dry, the impossible.
One horse with his own set of impressive figures is Mic Mac. So far he has seven wins from eight starts, but even his own stable has conceded that you could “mount an argument that until the Memsie Stakes… …that Mic Mac had never beaten a decent horse at his six previous victories”.
While we’re on the topic, the official websites of trainers and stables should not be ignored when it comes to gathering information for horse racing tips – naturally you’re going to come across a fair amount of hyperbole, but there are plenty out there prepared to not only make their cases in cold, hard facts, but also to peel away the veneer of the figures as well.
Through gregeurell.com.au we see the horse that Mic Mac beat in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield was noneother than Whobegotyou – the current Cox Plate favourite with many bookmakers and regarded as one of the classiest geldings on this side of the globe.
Digging further through the figures to examine Mic Mac’s only loss, at the 1600m group 1 Randwick Guineas back in March, we see he ended up fifth out of eighteen and ran from barrier 15 on the day – a fair reflection of his potential at this distance? I think not.
To date he has never won in a race longer than 1400m so it will be fascinating to see how he does in the 1600m Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, he will face two early Cox Plate favourites in the shape of El Segundo and Whobegotyou, again.
Saturday’s result will be the real statistic that matters when it comes to assessing Mic Mac over 1400m, and indeed, in checking his credentials for the likes of the Cox Plate.
More on the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes and the rest of the weekend racing tomorrow, plus some tipping for the AFL and NRL crunch ties.
- 2023
- 2022
- - June
- 2018
- 2017
- 2016
- 2015
- 2014
- 2013
- 2012
- 2011
- 2010
- 2009
- 2000