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Geelong's leaky defence could affect AFL finals betting

Posted on 26/08 by Pom de Turf

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 Geelong's defence could be a crucial factor in AFL betting markets this weekend as the Cats gear up to take on Freemantle on Saturday.

The Herald Sun has pointed out opponents of the wooden spoon-placed Melbourne Demons have converted just 48.9 per cent of forward-50 entries into scores since round 15.

This is compared with Geelong's same-period record of allowing teams to score 54.3 per cent of the time they make the 50m.

And further stats show even second-from-bottom Richmond have a better defensive record from the same period - posing questions for Saturday and for week one of the AFL finals.

Writing for the Herald Sun, Mark Stevens has "no doubt" that the Geelong defensive wall will go up again against Fremantle at Skilled Stadium on Saturday.

But he added: "We won't know if the defensive leakage has been fixed until week one of the finals."

Geelong are odds-on favourites to beat Freemantle on Saturday at 1.07 with Centrebet, but given the stats book, Fremantle are a tempting 8.66.

Betfair are also offering 2.72 for Geelong to clinch the game by under 39.5 points

And AFL betting elsewhere sees Geelong at 3.30 to win the flag with SportsBet.


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